Making a 'book'

[Kevloaf]

No doubt Envoi Allen will scare a few away in the Marsh resulting in a small sized field. It of course has the same outlook as the Arkle in many ways. But my only issue here is that I really do struggle to see any horse beating him, all being well. Shishkin could be that god as well of course. But I think we are dealing with a horse at another level from almost any other in Envoi Allen. So do I want to eat into the potential profit by covering other horses in the race?

That's a good question regarding EA, but my answer this far out is YES.

If he missed the race and you hadn't, you'd be in absolute turmoil.

If you back them, and are consistently backing horses that shorten, you'd be able to adjust nearer the time if you've convinced yourself based on the form that pans out he can't be beaten.

I personally play each way too, as the bookies will pay 3 places so I see that as 3 chances to win.

If you go 'win only', perhaps not... but I still would.

[Faugheen_Machine]

It does look like it may come down too:

Arkle
Champion Chase
Marsh

No doubt Envoi Allen will scare a few away in the Marsh resulting in a small sized field. It of course has the same outlook as the Arkle in many ways. But my only issue here is that I really do struggle to see any horse beating him, all being well. Shishkin could be that god as well of course. But I think we are dealing with a horse at another level from almost any other in Envoi Allen. So do I want to eat into the potential profit by covering other horses in the race?

My first thought is the Champion Chase and the Arkle are the obvious races to make a book and I'm probably have way there having backed 5 for the Arkle by the end of July.

I struggle to make the Marsh a race for a bet for the same reasons as Jono and I'll just have to take it on the chin if EA doesn't show up.

[Lobos]

My first thought is the Champion Chase and the Arkle are the obvious races to make a book and I'm probably have way there having backed 5 for the Arkle by the end of July.

I struggle to make the Marsh a race for a bet for the same reasons as Jono and I'll just have to take it on the chin if EA doesn't show up.

The way to go with EA like last year is wait until the day and bet s few in the 'without Envoi' market. No point wasting good money on finding one to beat him .As you say, if he gets injured just take it on the chin plus the race opens right up then anyways.

[Kevloaf]

Each. Way.
3 places.

It's like admitting defeat knowing you aren't collecting from all 3.

Get your heads out the sand

[Lobos]

Each. Way.
3 places.

It's like admitting defeat knowing you aren't collecting from all 3.

Get your heads out the sand

Bet EW 3 places without Envoi on the day. Pick up on 4 horses !

[Faugheen_Machine]

Each. Way.
3 places.

It's like admitting defeat knowing you aren't collecting from all 3.

Get your heads out the sand

A 16/1 placed horse is a tad above evens. Looking at the market, I would probably do a good few points in non runners as I can imagine plenty avoiding EA, even those that would be most suited by the two and a half mile trip.

[Kevloaf]

Bet EW 3 places without Envoi on the day. Pick up on 4 horses !

They'll be priced correctly then though.

A 16/1 placed horse is a tad above evens. Looking at the market, I would probably do a good few points in non runners as I can imagine plenty avoiding EA, even those that would be most suited by the two and a half mile trip.

Darver Star

With cashout

If The Cap Fits
Klassical Dream
Elixir D'ainay



One of them three would be a serious enough rival and they're all 25/1 plus, 33/1 in fact? Willie wil l100% have at least one horse in it, and he'll be single figures.... it seems odd to ignore that for me.... (maybe not in July, but looking forwards)...

[Kevloaf]

Just to add to why I think the Marsh is worth doing as well.

Envoi Allen for me (and a lot of us) will be 'key' to some multiples, he'll be a horse we will hopefully have other winners rolling on to and therefore as a SINGLE BOOK, it isn't going to make or break the week.

I'll want him to be a significant winner as a single, but really, I will need at least one other horse winning and him being the final leg to make him win enough to cover the entire week for example.


Therefore, I am not too worried about 'eating into the profit', as if I was only betting singles, and had no desire to have Envoi Allen the final leg in anything, it'd matter more, but I don't expect that'll be the case and it's definitely a reason I wouldn't mind having the book in this instance.



Unless all your eggs go into Envoi Allen as a single (and therefore no book for the Marsh), then I don't see how he can be that important - and at 4/1 and now 3/1, it's very, very, very risky to rely on one horse to make your week.

[BigChaang]

Wouldn't be too sure about Ifthecapfits myself Kev , .
did'nt make this years festival , but i can see the reasoning for being in .
your book . if you have cashout available too, then low risk.
Already got D.S and Elixir D'ainay myself for the Marsh.

[Spectre]

Getting others onside in the Marsh each way is going to be important to anyone who is big into Envoi Allen.

Envoi Allen is very big for me in both singles and multiples so I need big returns as cover on one or two others in the race if anything happens to Envoi Allen. The same is true in Arkle with Shishkin, and the Cross Country with Easysland (although only in multiples).

I won't have a penny more on any of the three between now and the Festival, all my work will be focused on getting into the best position I can if something happens to any of the them. Any new ideas from you guys will be most welcome.

Essentially I will end up focusing on 2, 3, or 4 horses each way in both the Arkle and Marsh, I'll also have them in solid looking each way multiples too so the prices are ramped if something happens to the favourite. In addition I'm sure to have smaller cover on other horses just in case they become genuine contenders, but I feel I'll be able to lay them back off for a profit. The Cross Country will involve a strategy where I have Tiger Roll in some solid each way multiples, while keeping an eye out for anything we've not seen so far that could present some element of risk.

[Craigy14]

Last year was my first proper year doing singles etc and bet win only.

Made a tidy profit but I think I may plan to do what Spectre has mentioned above for certain races where there is a short favourite. Have 2 or 3 other runners each way.

Definitely makes sense, just in case the hotpots misfire or don’t make it.

Other races I think I will continue to do win only as it worked well for me, plus I’m not in a position to be doubling my stake by going each way in every race so will pick and choose.

[Kevloaf]

Wouldn't be too sure about Ifthecapfits myself Kev , .
did'nt make this years festival , but i can see the reasoning for being in .
your book . if you have cashout available too, then low risk.
Already got D.S and Elixir D'ainay myself for the Marsh.

Didn't make the festival last year because the Rooney's didn't want their horses to run there.

Now owner by Suede/Munir I don't see that being the case.

[Pendil]

Didn't make the festival last year because the Rooney's didn't want their horses to run there.

Now owner by Suede/Munir I don't see that being the case.

Hi Kev I have backed If The Cap Fits @ 40/1 B365 - RSA only. I am happy about change of ownership and Fry comments about going chasing. However I do remember that he didnt seem to handle the downhill from the 2nd last to before the last, where he seemed to get unbalanced (Jan 20). He ran on well again when he met the rising ground. I would want to see him run well on the track before trials day or I will be cashing out

[Kevloaf]

Hi Kev I have backed If The Cap Fits @ 40/1 B365 - RSA only. I am happy about change of ownership and Fry comments about going chasing. However I do remember that he didnt seem to handle the downhill from the 2nd last to before the last, where he seemed to get unbalanced (Jan 20). He ran on well again when he met the rising ground. I would want to see him run well on the track before trials day or I will be cashing out

Yes that's fair enough.

I think I'd see what price he was before I decided to cash out.

I fully expect him to be a lot better than the majority of other novices given his hurdles rating and that'll entitle him to be significantly shorter than the 40/1 he is now... at 40/1 I may well let him take his chance even if he hasn't been back to Cheltenham.


As he's with Suede/Munir he'll probably end up in the Sciliy Isles at Sandown

[BigChaang]

Didn't make the festival last year because the Rooney's didn't want their horses to run there.

Now owner by Suede/Munir I don't see that being the case.

Aha , I never saw that , Obviously that changes thing's .