Triumph Hurdle 2021

[Redbridge]

The plan was always to go straight to the triumph? Mullins already said that.

I prefer them to have a bit more experience and if I remember correctly he only jumped 6 hurdles in that first run due to low sun.

[charlie]

I prefer them to have a bit more experience and if I remember correctly he only jumped 6 hurdles in that first run due to low sun.

Yeh but its Willie. Experience is important but he won it last year (albeit fortuitously) with a horse that only ran once over hurdles, and French Aseel looks a lot better and jumped very well

[Run4Home]

Just cashed out half my French Aseel seeing it withdrawn from the Spring Hurdle, I would have thought Mullins would want to get a run into it.

They planned to go straight to the Triumph as still settling into the yard - the move was too close to the race this weekend.
No issue

[Eggs]

....Hills have Youmdor DRF & TH 33-1.

[darlojim]

Has he expressly said that? He intimated all week he might get pulled.

he definitely said it in a post race interview some where, 99% sure anyhow

[Redbridge]

They planned to go straight to the Triumph as still settling into the yard - the move was too close to the race this weekend.
No issue

Though I don't normally pay attention to what he's got to say (Remember his short lived RP column) he said in interview on RTV that the horse had only traveled a short way up the road from Ellmarie Holdens place and his gallop was pretty much the same as hers and the food was identical, I prefer to do my betting on what I see and not what i hear specially from Mullins yard and AOB is another, I listen to what they say but pay scant regard to it's value.

[Kotkijet]

I don't recall being impressed with French Aseel's jumping at Leopardstown and after checking my notes and re-watching the race, I have very big 1, steady close 2, slight hop left 3, close 4, big 5, steadied and slightly close 6. While nobody would expect perfection first time from a juvenile, you either want a few jumps which are difficult to quibble or an opportunity to show improvement. Willie Mullins sent Stormy Ireland (fell when third at the last) and Apple's Jade (second) to the Triumph after similar absences, but both of those had prior experience over hurdles in France and every other runner had a prep during the same year. With French Aseel in particular, this is a horse who held multiple entries prior to making his debut but was withdrawn before the declaration stage for one reason or another.

All of this is conjecture and as shown with Quevega, the yard does not need to prep its horses. Nevertheless, with a profile like French Aseel's, I can not view his missing Sunday as anything but a negative.

[Redbridge]

I don't recall being impressed with French Aseel's jumping at Leopardstown and after checking my notes and re-watching the race, I have very big 1, steady close 2, slight hop left 3, close 4, big 5, steadied and slightly close 6. While nobody would expect perfection first time from a juvenile, you either want a few jumps which are difficult to quibble or an opportunity to show improvement. Willie Mullins sent Stormy Ireland (fell when third at the last) and Apple's Jade (second) to the Triumph after similar absences, but both of those had prior experience over hurdles in France and every other runner had a prep during the same year. With French Aseel in particular, this is a horse who held multiple entries prior to making his debut but was withdrawn before the declaration stage for one reason or another.

All of this is conjecture and as shown with Quevega, the yard does not need to prep its horses. Nevertheless, with a profile like French Aseel's, I can not view his missing Sunday as anything but a negative.

I concur fully.

[Anay Turge]

The last 2 winners of the triumph had only one run over hurdles. Admittedly last years was more luck than anything, but it was a Mullins horse. The fact that French Aseel has already had plenty of experience in France, I wouldn’t be too worried right now, based on the omission from the DRF

[Kotkijet]

The fact that French Aseel has already had plenty of experience in France, I wouldn’t be too worried right now, based on the omission from the DRF

That experience came on the flat and French flat experience is generally no more beneficial for juvenile hurdling than flat experience gained in Britain or Ireland. Indeed, according to these figures, French hurdling experience doesn't necessarily help with jumping first time when compared to home-grown flat recruits. Although after the first run over the new type of obstacles, the French hurdlers tend to get the hang of things quicker.

For the sake of consistency, I isolated the local flat horses with fair or better form as that would be more representative of the equivalent imports.

[Anay Turge]

Hi Kotki, appreciate you have put a lot of effort into this, however my point was merely to highlight that horses who have had only one run over obstacles isn’t necessarily an issue. French Aseel skipping DRF and going straight to the Triumph doesn’t have to be seen as a negative.

[Ray]

Just running scared of quilixios!

[Kotkijet]

I think my major concern is the lack of fluency before getting an opportunity to develop his technique in a race setting. But as you say, he would not be the first to go to the Triumph with just one hurdles run under his belt. There have been twenty-three since 2010, and while most did little, three did win with another reaching the frame. That all of them raced within three weeks of the Triumph might distinguish them from French Aseel, but here they are in any case. I had a watch through their sole outings and took notes on their jumping to see how fluency possibly affected their performances.

Burning Victory
Fairyhouse slightly baulked on approach where close 1, untidy 2, steady and close 4,slightly steady 5, missed stride and tight 6, landed short 7, steady and hop 8
Triumph big1, slightly steady but ok 2, good 3, missed 4, close and untidy 5, steady and close 6, slightly skewed 7, slow 8

Pentland Hills
Plumpton keen early slow1, neat 3, big 4, slight hop 5, good 6, slightly skewed but quick 7 and 8, steady and close 9
Triumph steady and very big 1, hop 2, good3,4,5, slightly skew 7, clipped 8

Zarkandar
Kempton steady close 2, reached 4, steady close 5, through top last, good rest
Triumph impeded on landing 3, otherwise a very good round

Dodging Bullets
Kempton keen early very untidy 1, ok 2, close3, good4, slightly wandered on approach but popped over remainder neatly enough
Triumph keen early OK1, baulked when untidy 2, close hop 3,4, ok rest

Burning Victory is very much the odd one out as while none of the others were perfect on their debuts, they all showed the potential for good aptitude. Burning Victory also put in a messy round in the Triumph but still managed to win the thing. Pentland Hills was perhaps more exuberant than the Nicholls pair but that was as much an asset as a detriment. Zarkandar was unpolished but definitely showed flashes of the good jumping that won him the Triumph while Dodging Bullet's round was marked more by greenness than incompetence.

French Aseel is not the worst jumper by any means, but those surrounding him at the head of the market have shown much greater fluency and even though Youmdor has been a bit iffy in this regard, several of his jumps have been better than anything done in public by French Aseel thus far.

All matters of opinions obviously and as I don't plan on having any real money on the race, only my ego is at stake.

[Viking Flagship]

I think my major concern is the lack of fluency before getting an opportunity to develop his technique in a race setting. But as you say, he would not be the first to go to the Triumph with just one hurdles run under his belt. There have been twenty-three since 2010, and while most did little, three did win with another reaching the frame. That all of them raced within three weeks of the Triumph might distinguish them from French Aseel, but here they are in any case. I had a watch through their sole outings and took notes on their jumping to see how fluency possibly affected their performances.

Burning Victory
Fairyhouse slightly baulked on approach where close 1, untidy 2, steady and close 4,slightly steady 5, missed stride and tight 6, landed short 7, steady and hop 8
Triumph big1, slightly steady but ok 2, good 3, missed 4, close and untidy 5, steady and close 6, slightly skewed 7, slow 8

Pentland Hills
Plumpton keen early slow1, neat 3, big 4, slight hop 5, good 6, slightly skewed but quick 7 and 8, steady and close 9
Triumph steady and very big 1, hop 2, good3,4,5, slightly skew 7, clipped 8

Zarkandar
Kempton steady close 2, reached 4, steady close 5, through top last, good rest
Triumph impeded on landing 3, otherwise a very good round

Dodging Bullets
Kempton keen early very untidy 1, ok 2, close3, good4, slightly wandered on approach but popped over remainder neatly enough
Triumph keen early OK1, baulked when untidy 2, close hop 3,4, ok rest

Burning Victory is very much the odd one out as while none of the others were perfect on their debuts, they all showed the potential for good aptitude. Burning Victory also put in a messy round in the Triumph but still managed to win the thing. Pentland Hills was perhaps more exuberant than the Nicholls pair but that was as much an asset as a detriment. Zarkandar was unpolished but definitely showed flashes of the good jumping that won him the Triumph while Dodging Bullet's round was marked more by greenness than incompetence.

French Aseel is not the worst jumper by any means, but those surrounding him at the head of the market have shown much greater fluency and even though Youmdor has been a bit iffy in this regard, several of his jumps have been better than anything done in public by French Aseel thus far.

All matters of opinions obviously and as I don't plan on having any real money on the race, only my ego is at stake.

Which, Kotkijet, is what makes your opinion all the more worthy.

[Kevloaf]

I loved French Aseel's debut, my personal view on the juvenile division is that getting too caught up on any one factor (like jumping, or 'future stayer' etc) aren't as important as "ability".

Reason being, because the pool is relatively so small, as you can only be a certain age, no matter what, something will be the best.... it's like finding out who the fastest kid in your year at school is.... whoever is fastest, is probably also the best at other sports on sports day... cos they're just 'the best' of that age...


I have thought that ever since using Defi Du Seuil's abysmal jumping as a stick to beat him with. He ended up winning the Triumph pretty easily and went on to win another festival race, as well as going off fav for a QMCC. I would be staggered if your notes didn't find it easy to crab his jumping, yet he was just clearly the best of that crop.




Now obviously DDS and French Aseel don't have a similar profile at all, and I'm not saying French Aseel wins the Triumph, but I thought his debut over hurdles was fantastic, and if he wasn't single figures, I'd be getting giddy about his prospects, 1 run or not... the trainer can deliver.