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Triumph Hurdle 2021

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  • 50/1 Teahupoo bg Gordon Elliott j1-1-0 (-) 121
    Masked Marvel (Sassanian){12-g}(0.50) 1/0 Droit d'Aimer 1st 3yo Conditions Hurdle, Enghien 2010

    Teahupoo has had just the one race to date, which came in the Prix Emilius on Grand Steeple-Chase de Paris day in mid-October. Although fairly late in the season for juvenile imports, the newcomers' contest has featured several who would join British and Irish yards including 2011 winner Balder Succes, 2012 winner Rolling Star, and last season's runner-up Solo. Initially in a prominent position, he was baulked at the first by a rival jumping across him and he dropped back to midfield. Though impeded again at the second, he cruised up to settle behind the leader ahead of the final circuit. Travelling strongly into the straight, he jumped into the lead at the last and though his running against the rail helped his cause, he still ran on strongly to run out a length and a quarter winner. Despite suffering interference in the early stages, Teahupoo jumped very well with his getting slightly close to the seventh being hardly worth a mention. The form has been boosted in no uncertain terms, with runner-up Good Ball winning on his debut for Paul Nicholls at Newbury, and third placed Haut les Coeurs was a twelve length winner next time out. Masked Marvel has a solid record thus far in the division, and along with the dam winning her first three starts over hurdles, Prix Rush winner Kanto (4/1) and the classy juvenile Top Notch (4/3) also appear in the pedigree. The Leenders family were responsible for Gordon Elliott's Anniversary Hurdle runner-up Clarcam, and though the stable is already saturated with talent, Teahupoo could be yet another exciting recruit.


    50/1 Zoran bc Paul Nicholls f7-1-3 (81) 85
    Invincible Spirit (Galileo){12-b}(1.00) 3/1 Spectrometer 3rd Coral Cup (G3,138), Cheltenham 2003
    During seven runs on the flat for Hugo Palmer, Zoran has been progressive throughout his career. He got off the mark on his penultimate outing in a five runner, ten furlong handicap at Newmarket in September off a mark of 78. Though sporting a tongue tie and visor, he stayed on gamely to prevail by half a length. He was less convincing when last seen finishing sixth at Yarmouth, although it is possible that he was not suited by the soft ground. His current rating of 81 is a fair reflection of his ability and not out of line with Triumph class horses. He sold for 77,000 guineas at the Tattersalls Autumn sale, but it is worth noting that those formerly trained by Hugo Palmer's have a moderate record in the division with only Persiflage winning a moderate contest from thirteen horses. Notwithstanding, ex-inmate Mengli Khan, who cost 155,000 guineas, was much stronger in his second campaign. The offspring of Invincible Spirit do not achieve much in the sphere, with the winners to runners rate being 9.68%, and the highest RPR achieved from thirty-one juveniles was 123. A grandson of Ouija Board makes Zoran a nephew of Australia, a good sire in the division, and a relative of the useful Spectrometer.

    There are three other horses currently at 50/1, two of whom are owned by JP McManus. Hashtag Val and Mica Malpic are both with currently with David Cottin, with the former finishing third at Fontainebleau on his sole hurdles run, and the latter disappointing at Compiegne on his first run for the new owner. Brentford Hope (66/1) boosted his class credentials with a win over a mile at Haydock in October that brought his rating up to 100. However, it was said afterwards that the step down in trip suited, and that he would be targeted at pattern races in the upcoming flat season. North Street (100/1) is a complete non-hoper while Willy Nilly (150/1) is a 67 rated 14,000 guineas purchase for Donald McCain who is not too distantly related to Torpichen.

    Fortune Finder is also listed at 50/1 with Unibet. With Nimes available with the same firm at 40/1, this now makes two dead horses on their lists. The adjective used to describe Unibet would probably be "disgusting", while the noun is best left to the imagination.

    There are probably a few more who might enter the markets over the next few weeks. I have found six potential juveniles who are yet to be quoted, three from French hurdles, three from the flat. I will hopefully do profiles on them before too long, but since nobody likes surprises, their names are Galata Bridge, Vulcan and Wise Glory from the flat, and Homme Public, Samarrive, and Fortunes Melody from across the channel. I am rather surprised that the latter has not been listed as she is the second placed French filly for prize money, third for official rating, and has joined Harry Fry.

    Comment


    • I've made Quillixios my key horse in this now. I'd take both him and Zanahiyr against the field. I'm clear enough in my head now after seeing all the others. So whilst I respect Willie's two, Youmdor and French Aseel, and Nicholls Monmiral, plus Adagio and Nasaleem yesterday, my focus is on the Elliott pair.

      The reason I've chosen to build my race around Quilixios is because of the way the Triumph market forms it's never a race to make a book on. It's better to nail your colours at some point, and make the race a hit or miss job.

      I know what I'm about to say takes a leap of faith, but I genuinely believe it to be true, and I think the key here is about where they started and the way the two horses have been campaigned. Zanahiyr I think has probably surprised them at his rate of progress. He also has the Knight Frank under his belt which is definitely a big tick in his box. But generally the race has been a great trial for finding horses that place and not win. Including Gordon's. Also they haven't been shy running him, and it feels as though they are just rolling with the punches to see where it takes them.

      On the other hand Quilixios came over from France with a lofty reputation. He'd run a big race on debut over there and was bought for big money. Since then he's run a couple of times and then been looked after. He's the one I expect to turn up in the Spring Juvenile (should have had a race inbetween), and if he does that would be a clear indication that he's Elliott's number 1 horse for the race. Given timings, it looks as though he's the one that's being campaigned for that race.

      Nobody can be categoric about these things, horses improve at different rates or not as the case may be, so I reserve the right to change my mind based on what I see in the next four or five weeks, but I think Quilixios will win the Triumph Hurdle, and I'm backing him on that basis. Fortunately recency bias also means he's available at 10/1nrnb which offers plenty of juice, when he'll go off at less than half of that, and eliminates any risk of him not getting to the race. I've added a further couple of points each way to my previous bet of 12/1.

      Well done to those that had the fancy early prices tucked away for him. I'm very jealous, but also happy to have the prices I've got only nine weeks away from the Festival, with only two serious trials left.
      Luck is a dividend of sweat. The more I sweat, the luckier I get.

      Comment


      • Originally posted by Spectre View Post
        I've made Quillixios my key horse in this now. I'd take both him and Zanahiyr against the field. I'm clear enough in my head now after seeing all the others. So whilst I respect Willie's two, Youmdor and French Aseel, and Nicholls Monmiral, plus Adagio and Nasaleem yesterday, my focus is on the Elliott pair.

        The reason I've chosen to build my race around Quilixios is because of the way the Triumph market forms it's never a race to make a book on. It's better to nail your colours at some point, and make the race a hit or miss job.

        I know what I'm about to say takes a leap of faith, but I genuinely believe it to be true, and I think the key here is about where they started and the way the two horses have been campaigned. Zanahiyr I think has probably surprised them at his rate of progress. He also has the Knight Frank under his belt which is definitely a big tick in his box. But generally the race has been a great trial for finding horses that place and not win. Including Gordon's. Also they haven't been shy running him, and it feels as though they are just rolling with the punches to see where it takes them.

        On the other hand Quilixios came over from France with a lofty reputation. He'd run a big race on debut over there and was bought for big money. Since then he's run a couple of times and then been looked after. He's the one I expect to turn up in the Spring Juvenile (should have had a race inbetween), and if he does that would be a clear indication that he's Elliott's number 1 horse for the race. Given timings, it looks as though he's the one that's being campaigned for that race.

        Nobody can be categoric about these things, horses improve at different rates or not as the case may be, so I reserve the right to change my mind based on what I see in the next four or five weeks, but I think Quilixios will win the Triumph Hurdle, and I'm backing him on that basis. Fortunately recency bias also means he's available at 10/1nrnb which offers plenty of juice, when he'll go off at less than half of that, and eliminates any risk of him not getting to the race. I've added a further couple of points each way to my previous bet of 12/1.

        Well done to those that had the fancy early prices tucked away for him. I'm very jealous, but also happy to have the prices I've got only nine weeks away from the Festival, with only two serious trials left.
        He wanted to run Quilixios over here though. He entered it twice. And it's likely he'll be entered at Fairyhouse next week as someone's suggested. Not usual for Gordon's better ones.

        And Zanayhir is a certainty to run in Dublin I reckon.

        He'd have no problem running his juveniles against each other either.

        Comment


        • It's it better taking 10/1 NRNB on Quilixios rather than the 12/1 with cash out?

          From what I've seen and heard, the prices of Zanahiyr and Quilixios should be closer than they are.

          Comment


          • Originally posted by Quevega View Post

            He wanted to run Quilixios over here though. He entered it twice. And it's likely he'll be entered at Fairyhouse next week as someone's suggested. Not usual for Gordon's better ones.

            And Zanayhir is a certainty to run in Dublin I reckon.

            He'd have no problem running his juveniles against each other either.
            My reasoning (not well explained) was that one would take in the Knight Frank, and the other The Spring Juvenile. With Zanahiyr taking in the KF surely Quilixios takes in the Spring Juvenile. It would be unusual for Gordon to send anything to the Triumph that didn't run in one or the other, and he'd normally campaign his best two each with one of them each as a target.
            Luck is a dividend of sweat. The more I sweat, the luckier I get.

            Comment


            • Originally posted by Faugheen_Machine View Post
              It's it better taking 10/1 NRNB on Quilixios rather than the 12/1 with cash out?

              From what I've seen and heard, the prices of Zanahiyr and Quilixios should be closer than they are.
              For 2 pts I'd probably go NRNB at this stage?
              11/1 if you get a PP boost too?

              Comment


              • Originally posted by Faugheen_Machine View Post
                It's it better taking 10/1 NRNB on Quilixios rather than the 12/1 with cash out?

                From what I've seen and heard, the prices of Zanahiyr and Quilixios should be closer than they are.
                My preference is to concede a couple of points for nrnb to take away the risk of injury or any other reason why a horse may not travel. His price is good anyway.
                Luck is a dividend of sweat. The more I sweat, the luckier I get.

                Comment


                • Originally posted by Spectre View Post

                  My reasoning (not well explained) was that one would take in the Knight Frank, and the other The Spring Juvenile. With Zanahiyr taking in the KF surely Quilixios takes in the Spring Juvenile. It would be unusual for Gordon to send anything to the Triumph that didn't run in one or the other, and he'd normally campaign his best two each with one of them each as a target.
                  It's unusual for Gordon to send one of his better ones over to the UK for a shitty graded race at Chepstow too.
                  I also don't like how Quilixios who had a run in France, has been run in 2 absolutely shit novices.
                  It's much more usual to win your maiden then go through the graded races.
                  Like Zanayhir has.
                  He'd be more than happy to run both in Dublin I reckon, although it may depend on if he runs Quilixios next week, and how he gets on.

                  Comment


                  • Originally posted by Faugheen_Machine View Post
                    I listened to Off The Fence (ATR podcast) on my morning walk and got the sense that Barry Geraghty really rates Quilixios, viewing him as a big danger to Zanahiyr in the Triumph.
                    Probably makes him one to avoid then

                    Barry is a great addition in terms of the insight he provides into stuff you’d never even know went on in the world of jockeys/trainers etc, but has to be one of if not the worst offenders on the pundit circuit for talking rubbish about a horses ability.

                    in all seriousness though, Quilixios is the one I’m keenest on for this and although he’s not beaten much he’s shaped like a serious horse from day one, his first run I over here he looked absolutely electric. He’s the only one I liked the look of enough to get on before he ever raced over here, the other two I have covered I backed after nice runs and have just been fortunate they have shortened significantly further.
                    Last edited by ToniC; 10 January 2021, 06:06 PM.

                    Comment


                    • On the matter of path selection, here are the trials records of the first four home in each of the sixteen previous Triumph Hurdles.

                      Comment


                      • Monmiral not getting an entry apparently https://twitter.com/jess_stafford_/s...691578370?s=21

                        https://www.geegeez.co.uk/nicholls-targets-aintree-for-monmiral/


                        Last edited by Muswell; 11 January 2021, 04:16 PM.

                        Comment




                        • monmiral not getting an entry for the triumph

                          Comment


                          • Originally posted by KingSprinterSacre View Post
                            https://twitter.com/jess_stafford_/s...691578370?s=19

                            monmiral not getting an entry for the triumph
                            Do you know if we can trust the twitter source

                            Comment


                            • Originally posted by Pendil View Post

                              Do you know if we can trust the twitter source
                              She's been on the Final Furlong podcast, I think she works for Betfair, or did?

                              She's not a 'nobody' - I wouldn't have any reason to doubt it personally.

                              Comment


                              • Originally posted by Pendil View Post

                                Do you know if we can trust the twitter source
                                It’s on the Sporting Life too:

                                Leading juvenile hurdler Monmiral is already earmarked for Aintree in the spring, and will not even be entered in the Triumph Hurdle at the Cheltenham Festival.

                                Paul Nicholls’ French import, who numbers Sir Alex Ferguson among his owners with Ged Mason and John and Lisa Hales, scored with ease on his British debut at Exeter.

                                He was then upped in class for the Grade Two Summit Juvenile Hurdle at Doncaster, where he was an even more impressive winner.

                                However, Nicholls views him as an embryonic chaser of the future – and Aintree’s Doom Bar Anniversary 4-Y-O Juvenile Hurdle is by far this season’s preferred target.

                                “Monmiral goes to Haydock for the Victor Ludorum next, then on to Aintree,” said the champion trainer.

                                “He won’t even have an entry in the Triumph Hurdle.

                                “John Hales and the other guys are not interested in the Triumph Hurdle – they are interested in chasing.

                                “All those good horses I’ve had like Frodon and Clan Des Obeaux have finished down the field in the Triumph Hurdle – but they weren’t Triumph horses, and he is the same.”

                                Nicholls is confident Liverpool will suit Monmiral much better.

                                “The race at Aintree is worth a lot, and it will be a nice track for him,” he added.

                                “If you are going to be serious about chasing in the future, you have to mind him a bit. He wasn’t purchased for a Triumph Hurdle.”

                                Comment

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