If this is your first visit, be sure to
check out the FAQ by clicking the
link above. You may have to register
before you can post: click the register link above to proceed. To start viewing messages,
select the forum that you want to visit from the selection below.
Announcement
Collapse
Fat Jockey Patrons
Fat Jockey is a horse racing community focused on all the big races in the UK and Ireland. We don't charge users but if you have found the site useful then any support towards the running costs is appreciated. Become a Patron!
Wise words Charlie.
For me similar rules apply to the novice hurdles although many of those will have come through bumpers or PTP, I applaud those who spot some value this far out and have big price runners in their book, personally I’m happy getting late to the party and missing the fancy prices though what I lose in value I tend to get back in knowledge....
Let's face it. Nothing would have helped in the last 2 years.
Early ?
Late ?
Made no difference.
Anyone who backed the last 2 winners got lucky one way or another.
Not yet, but I will. No issue backing novices early, Shishkin this time last year at 40's, 36's, 33's perhaps being one of my better examples
Is what I've said debatable? The Triumph is an incredibly tough race to back ante post. Hats off to those that do well in the race, but my record is terrible. Fields are difficult to predict, plenty of juveniles start late in the season, they all develop at different rates, then you have a swathe of imports to contend with too. Not gonna swamp the thread with posts knocking those taking shots early, just saying it's not my cup of tea at this point in the season. Each to their own, we all approach ante post differently
Yes, I think it is entirely debatable. Hell Red has had two good runs over hurdles, yet you think it is a better idea to back horses who have never jumped a hurdle? The pool of horses for the novice hurdles is bigger and they can have multiple targets, in fact uncertain in some cases until the eve of the Festival. As regards history you can probably take what you want. A few years ago Defi Du Seuil had the race won before Christmas.
Starting (over hurdles) months for previous 10 Triumph winners:
2020 - February (Should have been November as Goshen would have hosed up )
2019 - February
2018 - December
2017 - October
2016 - December
2015 - December
2014 - November
2013 - November
2012 - July
2011 - February
Looking at that list I'd probably say not to get too hung up on when they start their juvenile hurdling careers. Although November onwards (80% of winners in that list) would be more favourable but not an exact science.
Interestingly though, I believe I am right in saying that Peace & Co, who won the Triumph in 2015, is the only one from that list that had a hurdles race in France prior to coming over, the rest were from the flat (including NHF) in the UK, Ireland & France. This would show up as a negative for the likes of Quilixios, Hell Red & Paros, whom have already run over hurdles in France. Though, I haven't done a complete check to see how many have tried, but from the past two seasons you had the likes of Solo, Pic D'Orhy, Quel Destin & Adjali who have come over from France with a hurdles run (usually a win) and failed in the Triumph.
Last edited by ComplyOrDie; 12 October 2020, 11:29 AM.
It is commonly trotted out by many (I've probably done it myself). That the triumph is a muggy race to get involved with antepost due the the developing nature of the juveniles and French imports etc.
But these apply to the other novice races also.
At least with the triumph, you kind of know (if good enough and still fit and well) what the final destination will be.
So using Charlies' analogy, at least you know the book you're reading has the right ending and it's not at the end of another book in the library.
All the novice hurdle races, including the juvenile are not ideal for antepost punting.
But as long as it's fun, then so be it.
I've backed 2 in the triumph.
One unnraced ex flat horse @ 55-1 with Elliott that they (new money) paid a bit of money for, so would expect they are aiming for the
top. And the other, because I got to see it run and run well, and back it at the same price after the race.
Do I think either will end up winning the triumph.
Fucking No idea.
But I know it's highly unlikely.
Interestly though, I believe I am right in saying that Peace & Co, who won the Triumph in 2015, is the only one from that list that had a hurdles race in France prior to coming over, the rest were from the flat (including NHF) in the UK, Ireland & France. This would show up as a negative for the likes of Quilixios, Hell Red & Paros, whom have already run over hurdles in France. Though, I haven't done a complete check to see how many have tried, but from the past two seasons you had the likes of Solo, Pic D'Orhy, Quel Destin & Adjali who have come over from France with a hurdles run (usually a win) and failed in the Triumph.
It is interesting, if 9 out of the last 10 winners (in an era of lots of French Hurdling imports dumping into juvenile hurdles) had raced on the flat, not hurdles, before commencing in UK/IRE juvenile hurdles.
The angle I didnt know is the possibility French flat racing could have been more successful than French hurdling.
Time to delve into the last 10 Triumph hurdles to work out where the winners/placed horses began their racing.
I've said it numerous times, the best way to back these Novices,hurdles and chase (Triumph aside) is TWAR. Even if you back them for specific races with cashout, decisions may not be made by the big stables until a few days before the festival itself and at that point cash out may not be available or it could be but with big losses. I accept you will get numerous NR's with TWAR but you'll also end up with 1/2 top chances in each Novice race at meaty prices and potentially a very healthy profit. Plus you don't necessarily have to wait and then react on every stable tour being released.
It is interesting, if 9 out of the last 10 winners (in an era of lots of French Hurdling imports dumping into juvenile hurdles) had raced on the flat, not hurdles, before commencing in UK/IRE juvenile hurdles.
The angle I didnt know is the possibility French flat racing could have been more successful than French hurdling.
Time to delve into the last 10 Triumph hurdles to work out where the winners/placed horses began their racing.
Please do SW, you're probably the best person to do such homework. Will look forward to your findings
It is interesting, if 9 out of the last 10 winners (in an era of lots of French Hurdling imports dumping into juvenile hurdles) had raced on the flat, not hurdles, before commencing in UK/IRE juvenile hurdles.
The angle I didnt know is the possibility French flat racing could have been more successful than French hurdling.
Time to delve into the last 10 Triumph hurdles to work out where the winners/placed horses began their racing.
I did something last year but I can't find the post easily.
As the French imports are always popular for the Triumph, I wanted to see where the winners and placed horses made their debuts over the last 10 years:
2015
1st PEACE & CO - French Hurdles 1 Run, 1 Win (RPR H-122)
2nd Top Notch - French Hurdles 2 Runs, 2 Wins (RPR H-129)
3rd Hargam - French Flat (12F) 3 Runs, 1 Win RPR 99
-------------------------------------------------------------
2014
1st TIGER ROLL - No Runs (trained by dual purpose trainer Nigel Hawke in the UK)
2nd Kentucky Hyden - French Flat 1 Run first RPR 72, then 4 French Hurdle races (RPR H-128)
3rd Guitar Pete - IRE Flat (12F) 6 Runs, No Wins RPR 52
----------------------------------------------------------------------
2013
1st OUR CONOR - Irish Flat (9F) 6 Runs, 2 Wins RPR 86
2nd Far West - French Hurdles, 1 Run, 0 Win (RPR H-101)
3rd Sametagal - French Hurdles 2 Runs, 1 Win (RPR H-108)
-----------------------------------------------------------------
Over the last decade the results come into the following categories (from the horses first start) - adding Tiger Roll into UK (as stabled into UK and bought with flat pedigree from Sheikh Mo).
French Hurdling (8)
1 Winner
3 runners up
4 third places
Henderson, Mullins and Nicholls horses, all one or two French hurdles runs, apart from Grandouet 10 years ago, who raced three times.
------------------------
French Flat (7)
4 Wins
1 runner-up
2 third places
Wide range of top stables, no more than 5 french flat runs, and 12F horses.
-------------------------
Irish Flat (9)
2 Wins
5 runners-up
2 thirds
Generally 9F to 12F winners, RPR up to 90
-----------------------
UK Flat (6)
3 Wins (if Tiger Roll included?) - or Goshen
1 runner-up
2 thirds
Generally lots of runs, at least one win, 10F to 12F horse, with RPR 77-91
-----------------------------
22 Flat horses and 8 French jumpers, with only 1 French hurdler (Peace and Co in 2015) winning in 10 years, did surprise me a bit, as i thought that there would be more French hurdle winners, given how much is talked of them transferring over to UK/IRE stables for big money.
The stand-out piece of information I will take from this is that French FLAT horses have won 4 Triumph Hurdles c/w 1 French HURDLER.
With 3 French Flat horses transferring stables and winning in the last 4 years.
All 4 French Flat horses that went on to win the Triumph Hurdle were all 12F horses.
All the last three years win/placed horses came from Flat Racing, and not French Hurdling.
Which could have been further added to, by Goshen 2020 (UK Flat) and Sir Erec 2018 (IRE Flat), had they finished their races.
I will be looking for 12F French Flat horses moving into Juvenile hurdles a lot more, now, with maybe a single win, as well as looking at UK/IRE 10F/12F Flat horses moving into Juvenile hurdles.
I will be looking for 12F French Flat horses moving into Juvenile hurdles a lot more, now, with maybe a single win, as well as looking at UK/IRE 10F/12F Flat horses moving into Juvenile hurdles.
Bring On The Night trained by Willie and owned by Joe Donnelly should fit the bill.
We process personal data about users of our site, through the use of cookies and other technologies, to deliver our services, personalize advertising, and to analyze site activity. We may share certain information about our users with our advertising and analytics partners. For additional details, refer to our Privacy Policy.
By clicking "I AGREE" below, you agree to our Privacy Policy and our personal data processing and cookie practices as described therein. You also acknowledge that this forum may be hosted outside your country and you consent to the collection, storage, and processing of your data in the country where this forum is hosted.
Tweet
)
Comment