Triumph Hurdle 2021

[Kevloaf]

Just in case anybody has yet to experience the glory of essay length previews for nondescript juvenile hurdle races, the look ahead to today's race at Chepstow can be found here;-

http://www.fatjockey.com/forum/showthread.php?15827-Juvenile-Hurdlers-2020-2021&p=177117&viewfull=1#post177117

Along with Hell Red, a few other horses in the Triumph lists have upcoming entries. Baladin de Mesc (33/1) is set to line up in a listed steeplechase at Auteuil tomorrow afternoon at 14:00 local time (13:00 in the UK/Ireland/Portugal/Faroe Islands/Sierra Leone etc). The first and third from the Prix Kargal (a.k.a the second and third from the Prix Weather Permitting) are among his opponents as is I'm Walking (fourth to Quilixios and second to Heros d'Ainay) who will be making his chase debut.

On Tuesday at Punchestown, Duffle Coat (50/1) and Quilixios (25/1) are among the entries in a winners-of-two. The pair were set to meet at Gowran Park last week but Quilixios was withdrawn due to the ground. Then on Wednesday, Midnights Legacy (33/1) could make his hurdling debut and while he has been beaten on his last two starts on the flat, his story is an interesting one. Possible opponents at this stage include the impressive Cartmel winner Naizagai, First Impression, an 89 rated newcomer for John Quinn from the family of Fred Winter fourth Kazlian, and Camahawk - a Tim Easterby trained Camelot half-brother to Fred Winter winner Hawk High.

Thanks Koktijet, was well worth the read.
The 'not a tip' lands as well each way at 20/1...


That's gotta be....!

[Quevega]

bet victor still 25's

[TigerRolllllll]

Monmiral of Nicholls beat Hell Red in France and is 33s with cashout on 365

[Quevega]

WH 25-1 Hell red still.

[Ray]

Monmiral of Nicholls beat Hell Red in France and is 33s with cashout on 365

From what i read during that race hell red ran very wide throughout

[Saxon Warrior]

From what i read during that race hell red ran very wide throughout

the race in France between Monmiral and Hell Red in on the ATR site.

Monmiral got the quieter ride, further back , Hell Red toward the front, widest of the 3 which is how they ride them - to keep the rail in the back/finishing straight, and cut a line across each bend to get there.

Monmiral cruised between horses to lead on the final turn and was bustled along to take a winning lead.

Couldn't tell who would be the better of them after that, but I was more taken with Monmiral's ability to travel through into lead like he did, which probably was the difference on the day.

[Istabraq]

Has to be the worst race to get stuck in to ante post, every time something impresses there's a temptation to get the horse in your book when there's no guarantee they will target the race or whether they're good enough.
I've already got Quillixos and Paros and as much as Hell Red looked the part yesterday it's still October, every chance there's another ten Hell Red performances this side of Christmas...

[Saxon Warrior]

Has to be the worst race to get stuck in to ante post, every time something impresses there's a temptation to get the horse in your book when there's no guarantee they will target the race or whether they're good enough.
I've already got Quillixos and Paros and as much as Hell Red looked the part yesterday it's still October, every chance there's another ten Hell Red performances this side of Christmas...

Agreed Ista,

You could easily get 10 in the book before the Kempton race that Solo won and turned the market upside down.

Im trying to avoid that urge, until I see a performance that hits me hard enough to demand a bet.

[KingSprinterSacre]

Has to be the worst race to get stuck in to ante post, every time something impresses there's a temptation to get the horse in your book when there's no guarantee they will target the race or whether they're good enough.
I've already got Quillixos and Paros and as much as Hell Red looked the part yesterday it's still October, every chance there's another ten Hell Red performances this side of Christmas...

Agree 100%. He was very impressive but i expect we'll have quite a few performances that are tempting. Very difficult race to get involved with too early

[Big Bucks]

Apologies if has been mentioned in this thread, but I know it has been mentioned on the forum, Gault Stats as well I think? But trend of winner and run was in that same year, Possibly Jan/Feb?

I did get very excited with Allmankind in November last year.

I think majority have the right idea to hold off on this race. Unless you truly believe you have found a superstar and confident this is where they will end up.

[charlie]

Apologies if has been mentioned in this thread, but I know it has been mentioned on the forum, Gault Stats as well I think? But trend of winner and run was in that same year, Possibly Jan/Feb?

I did get very excited with Allmankind in November last year.

I think majority have the right idea to hold off on this race. Unless you truly believe you have found a superstar and confident this is where they will end up.

You and me both pal. Getting involved in the Triumph this early just doesn't appeal to me - feels like reading the first chapter of a 1000 page book and trying to predict how its going to end. Maybe not the best analogy, but there are so many horses/unknowns it really feels like pissing in the wind. The last two years tell us that. I'd sooner wait, collect my thoughts and then pile in on something at 6/1 than waste point after point at larger prices trying to get ahead of the market, which I never seem to be able to do with this race.

[kinloch brae]

You and me both pal. Getting involved in the Triumph this early just doesn't appeal to me - feels like reading the first chapter of a 1000 page book and trying to predict how its going to end. Maybe not the best analogy, but there are so many horses/unknowns it really feels like pissing in the wind. The last two years tell us that. I'd sooner wait, collect my thoughts and then pile in on something at 6/1 than waste point after point at larger prices trying to get ahead of the market, which I never seem to be able to do with this race.

Have you got involved the novice hurdles?

If so, why are those more appealing as bets than a potential Triumph Hurdle candidate who will be considerably shorter than 25/1 if he returns to Chepstow and wins the Finale which is the obvious target?

[charlie]

Have you got involved the novice hurdles?

If so, why are those more appealing as bets than a potential Triumph Hurdle candidate who will be considerably shorter than 25/1 if he returns to Chepstow and wins the Finale which is the obvious target?

Not yet, but I will. No issue backing novices early, Shishkin this time last year at 40's, 36's, 33's perhaps being one of my better examples

Is what I've said debatable? The Triumph is an incredibly tough race to back ante post. Hats off to those that do well in the race, but my record is terrible. Fields are difficult to predict, plenty of juveniles start late in the season, they all develop at different rates, then you have a swathe of imports to contend with too. Not gonna swamp the thread with posts knocking those taking shots early, just saying it's not my cup of tea at this point in the season. Each to their own, we all approach ante post differently

[Dandrew99]

Couldn't agree with you more Charlie. I avoid the Triumph (and most of the novice hurdles) like the plague in terms of Antepost. Far too many unknowns at this stage

[Istabraq]

Wise words Charlie.
For me similar rules apply to the novice hurdles although many of those will have come through bumpers or PTP, I applaud those who spot some value this far out and have big price runners in their book, personally I’m happy getting late to the party and missing the fancy prices though what I lose in value I tend to get back in knowledge....