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Originally posted by Lobos
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Think he might be running for a mark. Fred Winter I reckon. -
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OVERPRICED MIXER got a couple of entries 12th Ludlow & 14th Cheltenham Triumph Hurdle Trial. Lets hope he takes the 2nd entry in.Comment
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Originally posted by doctorwu View Post
....looks like an anomaly with Sky re Overpriced Mixer. It’s a best priced 33-1 for this (according to Oddschecker), and as low as 20-1 with SkyBet and 365.
if I’m seeing this correctly, there is a Sky Cheltenham RaB for Overpriced Mixer to win the Triumph Hurdle at 50-1.Comment
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There is an anomaly with Overpriced Mixer's Triumph odds, but I would be more sceptical of the 20/1 than the 50s... Mind you, best of luck to those who fancy him. He is due to run tomorrow at Ludlow, the preview for which can be found here
As well as the Prestbury Hurdle on Saturday, there's another good looking race due off 55 minutes later at Punchestown where Zanahiyr and Dark Voyager could renew their rivalry, while Joseph O'Brien's Druid's Altar and Flying Scotsman are also entered. Sunday's race on Fontwell might fly under the radar, but it could end up being a decent little contest with Viroflay possibly testing his credentials against either of the two JP owned entries.Comment
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Duffle coat is officially rated 17lbs higher than Hell Red !!!Comment
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Get your money on at 5/2 then.Originally posted by Lobos View Post
Think he'll still be rated higher after today?Comment
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Don't bet daily keV.....how many more timesOriginally posted by Kevloaf View Post
But yes, I do think he'll win today. He looks a proper battler and will relish the Cheltenham hill and the conditions. Gordon coming over for this race is a tip in itself.Comment
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Don't think Hell Red has an OR yet Lobos. Are you mixing OR with RPR?Originally posted by Lobos View PostComment
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Yes, Racing post ratings. He'll Red not ran 3 times yet.Originally posted by Pendil View PostComment
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I found Hell Red's RPR of 109 baffling to say the least. I gave that performance 135 and while that might be a smidge high, this is how I reached it.
I tend not to add pounds to how far he could have won by, but given that he never left second gear, and was eased down while pulling like a fresh horse, I was happy to add eleven pounds to the bare figure of 124.
That 124 was based on the distance he held over his rivals and influenced by the fact that the winning time was faster than the previous ten renewals by upwards of four seconds. Indeed it was nearly eight seconds quicker than the 2015 edition where Sceau Royal and Adrien du Pont battled all the way to the like on good ground.
The runner-up was an unexposed nephew of Tiger Roll who twice achieved RPRs of 71 during four runs on the flat. He jumped very well for a debutant, he was clear best from a decent line-up, and his trainer has a 75% improvement rate between codes so it was not irrational to assume he posted a new career best. 71+35=106, +6 =112
112 + the 12 lengths = 124
Third placed Billy The Squid is a consistent, if curious type, and the Chepstow race had been his target for a while. He had ran to similar levels in four previous starts despite the races being of varying standards. Given the placing and his "better in better races" character, the 12 pound rise from his previous marks was not unreasonable. Next was Bourbali who was unlucky not to win on his racecourse debut last time when going down by a head to Peat Moss who was officially rated 105 after the race - with subsequent Fakenham runner-up Treaty Of Dingle six lengths back in third. He did not improve as much as could have been anticipated so his rise of 3 pounds between races is still lower than what is customary for his type. Jersey Grey was next and though he achieved little on the flat, he had the pedigree to make a better hurdler and put in a clean round of jumping. His mark of 101 was based on his position in relation to the above and he achieved 107 when winning next time at Lingfield. This 107 is actually fairly conservative given that it assumes the late faller at Lingfield ran a stone below his own debut, and that the runner-up Pyramid Place did not have to improve to win next time at Bangor.
So that's how I reached 135 for Hell Red. Even if one assumes that his Chepstow superiority was no better than 12 lengths, and that all of his rivals somehow underperformed on the day in a soundly run contest with few jumping errors, the RPR of 109 still looks wrong.
Was about to go into Duffle Coat but the race is about to start!Comment
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Love Duffle Coat, he doesn't half run his race and finishes it off. The 50s is looking niceComment
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Originally posted by Lobos View Post
Don't bet daily keV.....how many more times
But yes, I do think he'll win today. He looks a proper battler and will relish the Cheltenham hill and the conditions. Gordon coming over for this race is a tip in itself.
Should have got your wallet out
16/1 available still for Duffle Coat.
Not going to back him but very good staying performance and has a good attitude. Well done whoever is on at big prices!Comment
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Oh balls
My uncertainty around him being equally proficient around Wetherby and Cheltenham was what made me iffy today. Delighted to have been wrong though and should have a new Triumph favourite by the day's end.Originally posted by jonthehammer View PostComment
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