Cheltenham Festival Roll-Ups

[ComplyOrDie]

Pretty sure it's the old course for October and November meetings, then the December and Jan meetings is when they switch to the new course

You are correct. Just found that information too.

[Exar Essay]

Ignore all of the above then The perfect Ballymore trial

[riccirich]

I'm looking forward to this race, as personally I'm hoping CT doesn't see the trip out, the problem is there is a lack of opposition but Kinbara will make sure the race is about stamina, so I'm looking at playing him E/W.

Space Tourist ran a good race LTO too, and could be interesting.

It's all very much dependent on whether Captain Teague stays the trip as 2m5f at Cheltenham takes some getting and is a fair Bartlett trial, IMO.

It's literally the ballymore course and distance though isn't it? So surely a better ballymore trial than Bartlett trial haha
edit: already been pointed out

[ComplyOrDie]

It's literally the ballymore course and distance though isn't it? So surely a better ballymore trial than Bartlett trial haha
edit: already been pointed out

I thought it was on the new course initially, but even so, a trial, this early on in the season, for me, tends to point to trip over further. I'm not sure many of the entries, with the exception of Captain Teague are going to make into serious Ballymore propositions.

[Craigy14]

It's literally the ballymore course and distance though isn't it? So surely a better ballymore trial than Bartlett trial haha
edit: already been pointed out

You would think so but when you watch Hermes Allen last year in the same race it screamed spud race all over imo.

Be interesting to see how he performs over the trip though.

[Rooster Booster]

Everything about his racing post stable tour update (which I’ve just noticed is not on the stable tour sticky) tells me there is little chance of him running in the Albert Bartlett. He has already said he is quicker than Hermes and Bravemansgame (I will try and find the quote but it may have been in an interview) and imo would leave stay away Fay for dust as a novice hurdler. I haven’t gone back in any detail but I cannot remember him having many runners in the AB of any note and it will not be lost on him that his only success was with a horse with SAF attributes. Fwiw my view is if he doesn’t think he can go close in a ballymore they will not run in anything at the festival.

rp quote …apologies…..not entire quote as I can’t work out how to copy just this horse and it would take forever to type everything . I’ve typed the most relevant bits I think

“At this early stage he looks the best of our novice hurdlers but Johnny de la Hey is not in the least bit worried whether we take him back to Cheltenham in March or not; as far as he’s concerned it’s all about chasing with this horse” …..


”Two and a half miles looks his trip, although he has plenty of pace, and a good turn of foot “

Obviously we all interpret these quotes in our own way but I wouldn’t be rushing to back him for the Albert Bartlett based on that and the other factors personally.

[BuckingThe Trend]

Hermes Allen won the same trial last season though and looked like he could go round again.
Still ended up in the Ballymore.
I think if this horse does similar, it's the way Hermes Allen looked in the Ballymore that may sway him to go a different way this year. Will depend on how the Irish challenge is looking though, he ignored the clue Nigel's horse gave him last season also.

I remember Sir Anthony McCoy stating very clearly on ITV the morning before the Ballymore this year that Hermes Allen was running in the wrong race. He was right. Let's hope Paul Nicholls was listening to the great man.

[Carnage at Taunton]

It’s pretty much irrelevant though.
PN just doesn’t run these types in the AB.
Whether people think it’s right or not, he would rather go for the Ballymore than risk a horse’s chasing career in the AB , is how I see it.
It’s all about chasing, and their hurdling season is geared up for that it seems.
Denman and BMG would probably have pissed up
in the AB.
Ha ain’t bothered about that imo.

[Carnage at Taunton]

I remember Sir Anthony McCoy stating very clearly on ITV the morning before the Ballymore this year that Hermes Allen was running in the wrong race. He was right. Let's hope Paul Nicholls was listening to the great man.

But to what cost trying to beat his stablemate that stays forever

[Quevega]

It’s pretty much irrelevant though.
PN just doesn’t run these types in the AB.
Whether people think it’s right or not, he would rather go for the Ballymore than risk a horse’s chasing career in the AB , is how I see it.
It’s all about chasing, and their hurdling season is geared up for that it seems.
Denman and BMG would probably have pissed up
in the AB.
Ha ain’t bothered about that imo.

I suppose Stay Away Fay is a busted flush then ?

Why does one race in a career over an extra three furlongs at a slightly slower gallop mean risking a career over fences ?

You're just blurting stuff you've heard said by others, there are as many success stories from the 3 mile novice as failures, and the same can be said for the ballymore (success vs failures).

Unless you have the stats ?

[Quevega]

But to what cost trying to beat his stablemate that stays forever

potential defeat vs actual defeat in the ballymore.

What do you mean cost ?

[Carnage at Taunton]

I suppose Stay Away Fay is a busted flush then ?

Why does one race in a career over an extra three furlongs at a slightly slower gallop mean risking a career over fences ?

You're just blurting stuff you've heard said by others, there are as many success stories from the 3 mile novice as failures, and the same can be said for the ballymore (success vs failures).

Unless you have the stats ?

Imo SAF is an exception to his rule.
He recognised this was one he could go AB.
Strong stayer that had no chance in the Bally having HA in his stable.
Look of course I may be wrong , I don’t work there.
But I cannot remember too many of his good chasers having success at the festival hurdling.
So I form an opinion as to why.
That’s all this is.

[Carnage at Taunton]

potential defeat vs actual defeat in the ballymore.

What do you mean cost ?

I think he thought HA could win the Ballymore.
Cost, as in what it could do to a horse that he thinks a lot of,potentially affecting his career going forward.
Just don’t think he wanted the horse to be in that sort of race at that stage of his career.

[BuckingThe Trend]

Imo SAF is an exception to his rule.
He recognised this was one he could go AB.
Strong stayer that had no chance in the Bally having HA in his stable.
Look of course I may be wrong , I don’t work there.
But I cannot remember too many of his good chasers having success at the festival hurdling.
So I form an opinion as to why.
That’s all this is.

With SAF in the yard I can understand why he sent Hermes Allen to the Ballymore. That's a fair point. Just thought McCoy's comments were worth reporting with respect to Nicholls attitude towards the Bartlett.

[Rooster Booster]

I suppose Stay Away Fay is a busted flush then ?

Why does one race in a career over an extra three furlongs at a slightly slower gallop mean risking a career over fences ?

You're just blurting stuff you've heard said by others, there are as many success stories from the 3 mile novice as failures, and the same can be said for the ballymore (success vs failures).

Unless you have the stats ?

Surely one of the most relevant stats in relation to CAT post is the progress made from novice hurdler to novice chaser through to senior chaser factoring in major races won, prize money earnt and improvement in ratings. Different trainers have different strengths as I see it. There is nobody I would trust more than Willie to maximise the potential of a young horse to excel as a novice hurdler. There is nobody I’d trust more to consistently improve his top horses from novice hurdler all the way through to senior chaser than PN.

That does not mean Willie cannot successfully manage this transition nor does it mean that PN cannot have success with novice hurdlers but it’s a relative thing on average over time.

You will never convince Willie to deprioritise a horses novice hurdle career the same as you will never convince PN to prioritise it. The problem for us on here is we are COMPLETELY obsessed with the novice hurdle races, so disproportionately it’s almost insane (and I include myself in this).

This means that any decision he makes that we believe is not in our own interests we have very little patience for. If we were less obsessed with novice hurdlers (like PN) and more obsessed with the transitions from novice hurdler to novice chaser to senior chaser as a holistic entity we would likely appreciate PNs approach a little more.

They are both geniuses, one approach works better for us than the other because of our fixations.