Cheltenham Festival Roll-Ups

[charlie]

I have to get Appreciate into a roll up at double figure price before its too late (currently 10/1)

Appreciate It
Cardiff
Bournemouth
33/1

[Dandrew99]

The Denver Broncos have no active QBs allowed to play due to all 3 being exposed to a positive Coronavirus case meaning they all have to isolate. Their practice squad QB actually played WR his final year in college but when he played QB he was dreadful with more Interception than Touchdowns, he is also under 6 foot which is never a good start.

They play the saints who while without their starting QB, have the second best run Defense in the league and are a top half team for turnovers.

Saints -15 seems a banker.

This was a great shout by the way rolled up with Zanahiyr to get him on board

[Eggs]

I have to get Appreciate into a roll up at double figure price before its too late (currently 10/1)

Appreciate It
Cardiff
Bournemouth
33/1

...12-1 for the Ballymore with PP.

[charlie]

...12-1 for the Ballymore with PP.

Cheers Eggs but PP closed my account a few years ago.

[The King Pimm]

Brilliant Present 12.20 Lingfield & Santini GC

Lucky One 14.00 Southwell (please finally!!) & Bravemanseagle AB

Brilliant Present 12.20 & Holy Macapony AB

Well done Nico, he a brilliant jockey, he kept Brilliant Present going there when she was starting to ease up and a few slaps on her arse and she got the job done

[jonthehammer]

Brilliant Present 12.20 Lingfield & Santini GC

Lucky One 14.00 Southwell (please finally!!) & Bravemanseagle AB

Brilliant Present 12.20 & Holy Macapony AB

Well done Nico, he a brilliant jockey, he kept Brilliant Present going there when she was starting to ease up and a few slaps on her arse and she got the job done

Is 'Bravemanseagle' Bravemansgames pet bird TKP?

[charlie]

I have to get Appreciate into a roll up at double figure price before its too late (currently 10/1)

Appreciate It
Cardiff
Bournemouth
33/1

the 8/13 shot lets me down ffs

[Fatcatshat]

They are all fair points Brital.

What does need to be factored in though, is that everyone is looking for different things on here and there is a vast array of bettors, approaches and styles.

I can hand-on-heart say I do read everything, however, I wouldn't be surprised at all if some people just ignored some peoples diaries, as they disagree with the strategy, feel they're lying to themselves, genuinely don't care, or any combination of things...and that's fine.

Pulling people up for having a bad approach or bad strategy is actually fine too as long as it's done in a constructive way, and with some battles eventually there is no point having the discussion as you're just on different wave lengths and never going to make someone see that they're wrong or change peoples minds etc.


I guess what I'm saying is, I agree with your specifics above, however it's doing no harm if people did end up with a 2000/1 Envoi Allen bet and feel they had a good week, because technically they did, and anyone reading that after the event could make up their own mind on whether they like that or not... it doesn't really matter.

I’ve just been reading through this thread a little now prompted by Charlie’s point of being let down by a football bet on a roll-up on to Appreciate it.

Brital I cannot agree more with what you said in your previous post regarding sports Roll-Ups, I think the whole concept is just nonsense. I don’t want to fly in like a bull in a China shop on my first day at school so I’ll apologise to you all in advance...

I hold my hands up and admit to unashamedly nicking one of Charlie’s selections whilst I was a lurker (I didn’t do it often I may add, in fact I can only think of 3 examples) the 66s on latest exhibition, I nearly joined soon after just to say thank you but I didn’t get round to it, sorry! Whilst it didn’t win, that tip alone proves you’re an incredibly shrewd judge of a horse and what value looks like in the ante post market for a novice chase, however can you honestly say that you have that level of knowledge on championship football? You may do I’m not sure, and actually in some ways it’s irrelevant to the actual point itself:

What Bournemouth do on a Tuesday night is totally irrelevant to Appreciate it’s chances at Cheltenham and subsequently we should keep these two distinct events separate when assessing a bet. As Brital rightly points out with his more extreme example, 1pt roll-up of an evens shot on to an unconnected 10/1 shot doesn’t suddenly make it a 20/1 shot, it makes it 2pts on 10/1 shot - that’s an incredibly important distinction to make, the market’s implied probability of that horse winning has not changed, your stake has just increased. If you’re not willing to have 2pts on it at 10s in a single, why would you have the 1pt roll up? If you are willing to do so, just do it without the roll up and don’t introduce the other risk event, for every 1pt you win for your roll-up you probably loose 1.25pts (I’m sure there’s a bookmaker’s employee or two here who will confirm their football margins!)

I’m not telling people to not do a roll up for a laugh (or bet on football or anything else for that matter) who doesn’t like an acc, and quite frankly for mugs like me they are great... but if I was a good judge of a horse like some of you lot clearly are, you’d be better off keeping ante-post totally removed from football punting or anything else, you’d be more profitable in the long run!

[OscarWhisky]

FatCat you are 100% right. I don’t have a diary but when there was some discussion on how to report Roll-ups I stated the issues above exactly as you, only less succinctly!

If a roll up is successful then you have 2pts on a 10/1 poke, not 1pt on a 20/1 shot.

Made it really confusing looking at peoples diaries at the time and seeing all these fancy odds that were never available in the first place.

Much more transparent to show the increased stake as, in all reality, that’s exactly what you have.

[OscarWhisky]

PS. I like this thread as gives me a few ideas of a bet! But I rarely ‘roll’ them onto an ante-post horse racing selection.

if you don’t like the 10/1 then you don’t like it irrespective of your stake size? You’re just tying up more (winning) money on it?!

[BigChaang]

Only tried this once or twice for cheltenham , Unsuccessfully ! , what i would call a ' silly bet .'.
but up to the individual , and if it comes off at a big price then Happy Days.

[Leman14]

I'm fairly ambivalent towards roll-us.
I've not done many, but I've won some, I've lost some.

It all really depends on your approach to the festival as a whole.

I aim to get a particular return (circa 50+pts) on horses that I want onside AND I mostly use Free Bets where possible.

Therefore, if I want Shishkin onside, it "feels" better to put it in a roll-up than lump 10, 20, 25 pts on - especially when we haven't got the NRNB safety net.

That doesn't mean that it's the right approach and some diaries can be very mis-leading.

At the end of the day, the diary section is for the "owners" benefit and whilst the true "value" is no different, with some savvy punting and clever use of Free Bets, it can be a good way of securing decent potential returns on short-priced "bankers".

[charlie]

I've just been reading through this thread a little now prompted by Charlie's point of being let down by a football bet on a roll-up on to Appreciate it.

Brital I cannot agree more with what you said in your previous post regarding sports Roll-Ups, I think the whole concept is just nonsense. I don't want to fly in like a bull in a China shop on my first day at school so I'll apologise to you all in advance...

I hold my hands up and admit to unashamedly nicking one of Charlie’s selections whilst I was a lurker (I didn’t do it often I may add, in fact I can only think of 3 examples) the 66s on latest exhibition, I nearly joined soon after just to say thank you but I didn’t get round to it, sorry! Whilst it didn’t win, that tip alone proves you’re an incredibly shrewd judge of a horse and what value looks like in the ante post market for a novice chase, however can you honestly say that you have that level of knowledge on championship football? You may do I’m not sure, and actually in some ways it’s irrelevant to the actual point itself:

What Bournemouth do on a Tuesday night is totally irrelevant to Appreciate it’s chances at Cheltenham and subsequently we should keep these two distinct events separate when assessing a bet. As Brital rightly points out with his more extreme example, 1pt roll-up of an evens shot on to an unconnected 10/1 shot doesn’t suddenly make it a 20/1 shot, it makes it 2pts on 10/1 shot - that’s an incredibly important distinction to make, the market’s implied probability of that horse winning has not changed, your stake has just increased. If you’re not willing to have 2pts on it at 10s in a single, why would you have the 1pt roll up? If you are willing to do so, just do it without the roll up and don’t introduce the other risk event, for every 1pt you win for your roll-up you probably loose 1.25pts (I’m sure there’s a bookmaker’s employee or two here who will confirm their football margins!)

I’m not telling people to not do a roll up for a laugh (or bet on football or anything else for that matter) who doesn’t like an acc, and quite frankly for mugs like me they are great... but if I was a good judge of a horse like some of you lot clearly are, you’d be better off keeping ante-post totally removed from football punting or anything else, you’d be more profitable in the long run!

It's a good debate to have. The concept of roll ups is nonsense? Or the way they are reported by others is nonsense? (I think it's important not to get these two mixed up).

I don't think the 'concept' of roll ups can be described as 'nonsense'. If you back Birmingham City @ 11/10 rolled up with Epatante @ 6/5 then it's a factual fact that you'll get paid more if Epatante wins. The concept exists, it's up to punters to make them profitable, and report them properly.

People on here are generally very clear and do not disingenuously try and suggest they have a 10/1 shot at 20/1 because they've included it in a roll up. Take me for example, I publish the number of points I've lost and use a * to clearly denote in my diary which prices are a result of a roll up. I haven't seen anyone not making those distinctions.

My take on roll ups are two fold. One, they are just a bit of fun and I think we can massively over analyse things on here (I am guilty go this sometimes). Two, it is because I have confidence in my ability to find winners at bigger prices that roll ups make sense for me. For example, I have lost 12 points on roll ups so far, and have roll ups where the last legs are: Ballyadam @ 87/1, Saldier @ 87/1, Honeysuckle @ 18/1, Altior @ 16/1, The Big Getaway @ 70/1, Shewearsitwell @ 27/1, Allaho @ 45/1, Chantry House @ 46/1, Lostintranslation @ 45/1. I am happy with my position

Re my bet, whilst my knowledge of Championship football is not at the same level as racing, I always research those types of bets. Bournemouth have been pretty consistent at home and Preston had lost five of their past seven league matches. Cardiff did the business against Huddersfield who have looked plain all season. I am confident that were those fixtures replayed 10 times I'd win enough times to outweigh staking 10pts on Appreciate It @ 10/1. It's obvious I feel that way otherwise I wouldn't have made the bet in the first place!!

PS. anyone inferring I'm 'incredibly shrewd' gets an A* on their first day in school

[robith]

It feels like we're in our 14th straight day of debating the concept of the roll up, but a lot of people's qualm with it seems to be people reporting prices they haven't really gotten for a horse, and certainly on here, I just haven't seen that happen

[ryanh97]

It feels like we're in our 14th straight day of debating the concept of the roll up, but a lot of people's qualm with it seems to be people reporting prices they haven't really gotten for a horse, and certainly on here, I just haven't seen that happen

Agreed completely robith. Everyone's diaries who have been doing these seem to display it well enough