Cheltenham Festival Roll-Ups

[Kevloaf]

Each to their own as always, but I must admit being baffled by the roll up approach.

A football Acca and an Antepost selection for Cheltenham are totally divorced from each other, why the need to conjoin them?
I assumed the personal diaries etc. were to keep a record of people’s approaches and for them to gauge how successful they’d been come March.

the thinking appears to have developed that if a price is too low to be value, boost it by adding it as the last leg of an acca.
If you can identify accas that easily why bother with Cheltenham? Plus it doesn’t make the price you’ve taken for the horse any better, you’ve just assumed more risk before you got to the point of having the bet.

perhaps the point is best illustrated by an extreme example. Imagine you’ve had a successful 1,000 point acca rolling on to Envoi Allen, and he wins.
This gets recorded as a 1pt bet at 2,000/1.
The rest of your selections for the festival lose, but you’re well in profit due to that bet?

Have you had a successful festival?
if you think no, then why bother with the approach as it will only distort your results.
but if you think yes, then I think you’re fooling yourself; you just got lucky with a totally unrelated sequence of events.

They are all fair points Brital.

What does need to be factored in though, is that everyone is looking for different things on here and there is a vast array of bettors, approaches and styles.

I can hand-on-heart say I do read everything, however, I wouldn't be surprised at all if some people just ignored some peoples diaries, as they disagree with the strategy, feel they're lying to themselves, genuinely don't care, or any combination of things...and that's fine.

Pulling people up for having a bad approach or bad strategy is actually fine too as long as it's done in a constructive way, and with some battles eventually there is no point having the discussion as you're just on different wave lengths and never going to make someone see that they're wrong or change peoples minds etc.


I guess what I'm saying is, I agree with your specifics above, however it's doing no harm if people did end up with a 2000/1 Envoi Allen bet and feel they had a good week, because technically they did, and anyone reading that after the event could make up their own mind on whether they like that or not... it doesn't really matter.

[jono]

Elliott has stated Easywork and Andy Dufresne won't be running in the Drinmore on Sunday. (when interviewed on FFP)

Currently Envoi is 1/3.

It won't be for everyone but that price will likely be at least 4 times shorter upon declarations.

[charlie]

Elliott has stated Easywork and Andy Dufresne won't be running in the Drinmore on Sunday. (when interviewed on FFP)

Currently Envoi is 1/3.

It won't be for everyone but that price will likely be at least 4 times shorter upon declarations.

True, but then who would take 1/6 about EA when you can back Epatante at 4/6

[Kevloaf]

True, but then who would take 1/6 about EA when you can back Epatante at 4/6

You could have 30 points on the double at 1.3/1 - My mates Sky account is getting plenty of action - if she loses, transferring him 30 points won't feel good haha



Also, for me, Envoi Allen is much better value at 1/3 than Epatante is at 4/6 - she has two rivals who you can make a case for whereas Envoi Allen only has fences to beat... hence his shorter price

[Brital]

They are all fair points Brital.

What does need to be factored in though, is that everyone is looking for different things on here and there is a vast array of bettors, approaches and styles.

I can hand-on-heart say I do read everything, however, I wouldn't be surprised at all if some people just ignored some peoples diaries, as they disagree with the strategy, feel they're lying to themselves, genuinely don't care, or any combination of things...and that's fine.

Pulling people up for having a bad approach or bad strategy is actually fine too as long as it's done in a constructive way, and with some battles eventually there is no point having the discussion as you're just on different wave lengths and never going to make someone see that they're wrong or change peoples minds etc.


I guess what I'm saying is, I agree with your specifics above, however it's doing no harm if people did end up with a 2000/1 Envoi Allen bet and feel they had a good week, because technically they did, and anyone reading that after the event could make up their own mind on whether they like that or not... it doesn't really matter.

Can’t disagree with any of that, as I say each to their own. Was just expressing where I feel it can get a bit misleading.

Funnily enough I’ve had a point on Thyme Hill to win today and the stayers @50/1 (thanks eggs for highlighting), and now struggling to figure out how to record it on my spreadsheet. Don’t want to make myself a hypocrite

[Saxon Warrior]

with some battles eventually there is no point having the discussion as you're just on different wave lengths and never going to make someone see that they're wrong or change peoples minds etc.
.

Is this a strap-line for Donald Trump’s ongoing legal campaigns?

[Kevloaf]

Is this a strap-line for Donald Trump’s ongoing legal campaigns?

Could be!

[robith]

If anyone wants a football one today - sky have priced QPR to have 11+ shots at 11/8. Betfair have it 8/11 so the price is good, but we've also achieved it in our last 7 games. While we're not great our system creates mountains of chances.

I've doubled it with Monkfish myself

[Kevloaf]

If anyone wants a football one today - sky have priced QPR to have 11+ shots at 11/8. Betfair have it 8/11 so the price is good, but we've also achieved it in our last 7 games. While we're not great our system creates mountains of chances.

I've doubled it with Monkfish myself

This is getting dangerous for me on with my mates Sky account. Gonna have to chance that as it seems like value based on the BFSB price and the fact you won the FPL mini-league, so you can't be a complete weapon?

Copied the bet, with Monkfish, as he's only my 5th best RSA winner as of right now.

If this fails though I will just back him in a single, as the form just looks really good now however you carve it.

[Hurricane fly]

Annoyed that I tried to outsmart myself by taking an jnderdog to cover the spread and lose a roll up on Monkfish now he’s halves in price.

However today:
The Denver Broncos have no active QBs allowed to play due to all 3 being exposed to a positive Coronavirus case meaning they all have to isolate. Their practice squad QB actually played WR his final year in college but when he played QB he was dreadful with more Interception than Touchdowns, he is also under 6 foot which is never a good start.

They play the saints who while without their starting QB, have the second best run Defense in the league and are a top half team for turnovers.

Saints -15 seems a banker.

Added with:

Galvin (NHC) - 11.5/1 - 2pt
Al Boum Photo (GC) - 11.5/1 - 2pt
Chacun Pour Soi (CC) - 10/1 - 1.5pt

[ryanh97]

Think/hope Ballyadam will win well today, doubled up with Honeysuckle for the Mares - 2pts at 7.07/1

[Kevloaf]

You could have 30 points on the double at 1.3/1 - My mates Sky account is getting plenty of action - if she loses, transferring him 30 points won't feel good haha



Also, for me, Envoi Allen is much better value at 1/3 than Epatante is at 4/6 - she has two rivals who you can make a case for whereas Envoi Allen only has fences to beat... hence his shorter price

Never in doubt

[Leman14]

Keen to get Concertista in the book.
I think that whilst she needs to improve, spliting her and BDD (Mares Chase) gives Mullins the best chance of winning both.

on that note... I can’t believe that Leicester are only 1/2 to beat Fulham tomorrow (@ home)!

Contemplating a Leicester/Concertista double...

[luisgarciaisgod]

My rollups when mixing in other sports are proving to be a bit of a nightmare.

Had ones rolled up with place bets in the Masters which flopped. Have a Ferny Supreme/Leicester double...Leicester losing 2-0 at HT. Also a Envoi Allen Marsh mixed with Juventus, Liverpool and Celtic to win their respective leagues which doesn't look too promising either.

[jonthehammer]

My rollups when mixing in other sports are proving to be a bit of a nightmare.

Had ones rolled up with place bets in the Masters which flopped. Have a Ferny Supreme/Leicester double...Leicester losing 2-0 at HT. Also a Envoi Allen Marsh mixed with Juventus, Liverpool and Celtic to win their respective leagues which doesn't look too promising either.

Being a hammer please can you do a Villa double with something then.