Cheltenham Festival Roll-Ups

[Rhinestone_Cowboy]

Specifically then, what did you think of that Shishkin 1/6 with Ferny Hollow then taking him from 8/1 to 9.5/1?


I won't be offended I promise

I was going to put in my original comment even long odds on shots can be value like Kev’s bet on Shiskin at 1/6..haha. Jokes aside he looked value in hindsight but couldn’t be having him at 1/6 on his Novice Chase debut. Then again value is all about judgement and I’ve no doubt yours is better than mine

[Pendil]

Backing odds on in novice chases is the road to the poorhouse. I am just pissed off cause Liverpool are playing shite

[Kevloaf]

Backing odds on in novice chases is the road to the poorhouse. I am just pissed off cause Liverpool are playing shite

That needs some context to it I think.

I remember watching an interview with Harry Findlay who would disagree.


I personally thought Shishkin was a good price at 1/6. I felt it was backing a horse at 1/6 to jump around, and given how high profile he is and the comments, it's not beyond reason to think he'd be 'well schooled'. How many horses fall on chase debut? Definitely less than 1 every 6?



Of course, if you blindly backed every odds on novice chaser on debut you'd be down, but that isn't anyones strategy I wouldn't have thought.

[Jorvik]

There were posters on here talking with a straight face about betting on a z-list reality gameshow thing the other week, please can the rest of us call a truce and focus our attention and pitchforks on hounding these types out of town before it gets out of hand and people start taking Scottish football or tennis seriously.

[Craigy14]

People are of course free to back what they like. I just wanted to put forward a counter narrative to the i’ll boost the Cheltenham horse price by doubling it with a long odds on shot as I think it can promote muggy bets. If somebody makes a case why something is overpriced then game on irrespective of whether it is short priced or not.

I can see why it looks like that and in no way is it a long term strategy or I hope it isn’t how anyone would think of trying to as it’s only ending one way.

For me it’s never about finding something overpriced, purely to enhance a cheltenham horse that is too short for me to justify a single bet. But at the same time is definitely one I want in my book, Epatante, Chacun for example. They are not value to bet single at present but adding a couple of prices to them enhances the value doesn’t it.

Whether it’s deemed muggy or not I don’t care to be honest, as you’ve said each to their own. I know I won’t land them all but I’m happy to play with a few points through the season up to cheltenham trying to do so

[ryanh97]

There were posters on here talking with a straight face about betting on a z-list reality gameshow thing the other week, please can the rest of us call a truce and focus our attention and pitchforks on hounding these types out of town before it gets out of hand and people start taking Scottish football or tennis seriously.

2/1 winner of I'm a Celebrity pays exactly the same as a 2/1 Gold Cup winner

[Outlaw]

2/1 winner of I'm a Celebrity pays exactly the same as a 2/1 Gold Cup winner

Correct but there is no doubt a forum for reality tv out there

[riccirich]

There were posters on here talking with a straight face about betting on a z-list reality gameshow thing the other week, please can the rest of us call a truce and focus our attention and pitchforks on hounding these types out of town before it gets out of hand and people start taking Scottish football or tennis seriously.

That reminds me, my reasons for cashing out on vernon kay are the following..........

[Middle_Of_March]

People need to get out more if they get annoyed/offended at how people want to try boost odds on a fancy for Cheltenham.

See this is the sort of post that a down vote would be perfect for.

Nobody has said they’re annoyed or offended. All that has been said is suggestions as to the way people do the Rollups. Instead you’ve come wading in with a two footed lunge from nowhere

[darlojim]

Absolutely agree.

My two rollups this year we’re NFL certainties (in my head) and both were around 4/9. Quite happy with that.

If you have Envoi at 9/4 but roll him up with 6 football matches and he becomes the last leg of an acca at 37/1... does that really count as a Rollup? The bigger risk is the bet losing (clearly) pre-envoi’s leg.

This whole rollup business and people claiming massive prices all seems a bit unnecessary to me. But hey ho.

Totally agree with this, the purpose of these earlier on were just to boost the price of the horse you wanted a small amount. Now it seems like people are having 5 fold footy accas and adding a horse at the end to make it look like they've a juicy price on a horse. Why not just place the 5/6 fold footy bet or whatever it is and then if it wins, great.. Put them winnings onto the particular horse at their respective odds.

I duno its a weird one, almost like look my balls are bigger than yours, I have envoi at 66s etc.

Probably a slightly unpopular opinion but oh well shoot me down!

[Big Bucks]

.

Totally agree with this, the purpose of these earlier on were just to boost the price of the horse you wanted a small amount. Now it seems like people are having 5 fold footy accas and adding a horse at the end to make it look like they've a juicy price on a horse. Why not just place the 5/6 fold footy bet or whatever it is and then if it wins, great.. Put them winnings onto the particular horse at their respective odds.

I duno its a weird one, almost like look my balls are bigger than yours, I have envoi at 66s etc.

Probably a slightly unpopular opinion but oh well shoot me down!

100! I mean if I get a footy bet up I'm likely to stick it on a fancy or one iv wanted to add for Cheltenham. But I'm sticking down the winning amount on the price of the horse. Not the stake I started with on the footy bet. Which to an extent for what iv seen people do on these is there much difference in me calling it a roll up? Not in the way id record mine, each to thier own

[Craigy14]

Totally agree with this, the purpose of these earlier on were just to boost the price of the horse you wanted a small amount. Now it seems like people are having 5 fold footy accas and adding a horse at the end to make it look like they've a juicy price on a horse. Why not just place the 5/6 fold footy bet or whatever it is and then if it wins, great.. Put them winnings onto the particular horse at their respective odds.

I duno its a weird one, almost like look my balls are bigger than yours, I have envoi at 66s etc.

Probably a slightly unpopular opinion but oh well shoot me down!

This is where the opinion splits, I’ve not seen any person who has done a ‘footy acca’ or any other sort of roll up to boost a cheltenham horse gloat about the price they have managed to do. Obviously they are going to be happy with the outcome, who wouldn’t?!

I also don’t see what it matters to others how people roll up a horse

There isn’t a need to call people out or suggest people shouldn’t do it. It is what it is, you don’t like them don’t do them. If people want to do them that way let them be.

Just confused by this now, if people aren’t bothered why bring it up in the first place? Does it bother people that I have managed to roll up accas on shishkin and envoi Allen? Does it also bother them that I’ve had similar accas fail on Epatante and Chacun twice? I chose to do it and I’m happy to do it for fun and also as I’ve said numerous times to boost a horse I seem too short for a single at this time. If I win X amount on a bet I don’t just plough it on Cheltenham horses, if only it were that simple.

As I’ve seen said before one mans ?100 is another mans ?5.

[Brital]

Each to their own as always, but I must admit being baffled by the roll up approach.

A football Acca and an Antepost selection for Cheltenham are totally divorced from each other, why the need to conjoin them?
I assumed the personal diaries etc. were to keep a record of people’s approaches and for them to gauge how successful they’d been come March.

the thinking appears to have developed that if a price is too low to be value, boost it by adding it as the last leg of an acca.
If you can identify accas that easily why bother with Cheltenham? Plus it doesn’t make the price you’ve taken for the horse any better, you’ve just assumed more risk before you got to the point of having the bet.

perhaps the point is best illustrated by an extreme example. Imagine you’ve had a successful 1,000 point acca rolling on to Envoi Allen, and he wins.
This gets recorded as a 1pt bet at 2,000/1.
The rest of your selections for the festival lose, but you’re well in profit due to that bet?

Have you had a successful festival?
if you think no, then why bother with the approach as it will only distort your results.
but if you think yes, then I think you’re fooling yourself; you just got lucky with a totally unrelated sequence of events.

[SharpHat]

Each to their own as always, but I must admit being baffled by the roll up approach.

A football Acca and an Antepost selection for Cheltenham are totally divorced from each other, why the need to conjoin them?
I assumed the personal diaries etc. were to keep a record of people’s approaches and for them to gauge how successful they’d been come March.

the thinking appears to have developed that if a price is too low to be value, boost it by adding it as the last leg of an acca.
If you can identify accas that easily why bother with Cheltenham? Plus it doesn’t make the price you’ve taken for the horse any better, you’ve just assumed more risk before you got to the point of having the bet.

perhaps the point is best illustrated by an extreme example. Imagine you’ve had a successful 1,000 point acca rolling on to Envoi Allen, and he wins.
This gets recorded as a 1pt bet at 2,000/1.
The rest of your selections for the festival lose, but you’re well in profit due to that bet?

Have you had a successful festival?
if you think no, then why bother with the approach as it will only distort your results.
but if you think yes, then I think you’re fooling yourself; you just got lucky with a totally unrelated sequence of events.

Cant speak for anyone else but for me its combining bets i would have had anyway with something at Cheltenham. I bet for fun, and only for fun. If im watching the cricket for example ill stick a point on who i fancy with envoi or shishkin or one of the other short prices. I dont bet enough to make backing even money shots worthwhile, so sticking them in a rollup with a cheltenham fancy makes them backable

[Jorvik]

Personally I just see it as a bit of fun and potentially a nicer price to look at in March. If they don't come off then as long as i'm not throwing daft money around, it'll be long forgotten by then.
It adds a bit more intrigue to bets i'd probably have had out of sheer boredom and probably makes me take them a bit more seriously. Think i've only attempted 3 rolls up so far, all for small stakes. Each to their own, as long as you're doing no harm to yourself.