Cheltenham Festival Roll-Ups

[Outlaw]

Given its roughly evens onto a 9/4 poke and the fact it sounds like some have tried to roll him up before you'd be needed a decent 3pter today to make it worthwhile no?

[Kevloaf]

Shishkin in a minute and Ferny Hollow goes from 8/1 to 9.5/1 - not exactly a huge difference but I'll have 1 pt on just so I can watch the race now (despite having Racing TV on my phone)

[Leman14]

Just added a Free Bet on:
Indefatigable (14:00) @ 5/4 and Unexcepted @ 16/1 - as cover for the Arkle (37/1)

[riccirich]

One method of roll up that has proved successful for me so far (ive only done it twice) is picking the man of the match in irelands international rugby matches when they are at home in games that I expect them to win. The man who usually decides the man of the match on rte television is called donal lenihan (a former lock forward) and so when ireland win he usually goes with one of the forwards for motm unless one of the backs has been head and shoulders above everyone else.

This narrows down the candidates to eight, and what I have done in the last two games is pick the ones from this eight that are the newest into the team and have a point to prove. Against italy in the six nations match last month I went with will connors 8/1 and caelan doris 7/1 and was successful with will connors, and then against wales in the first game of the autumn nations cup over a week ago I went with caelan doris again at 9/1 and ronan kelleher at 20/1 and I was again succesful with doris. I'll post my picks for their next autumn match in here and see can I make it three from three

[Leman14]

Just added a Free Bet on:
Indefatigable (14:00) @ 5/4 and Unexcepted @ 16/1 - as cover for the Arkle (37/1)

Oh well... that didn't last long!

[Kevloaf]

Shishkin in a minute and Ferny Hollow goes from 8/1 to 9.5/1 - not exactly a huge difference but I'll have 1 pt on just so I can watch the race now (despite having Racing TV on my phone)

Keep it simple

Tipping up 1/6 shots.

What a legend. Where would you all be without me, honestly.

[Istabraq]

Keep it simple

Tipping up 1/6 shots.

What a legend. Where would you all be without me, honestly.

But I make that clever Kev, using these certainties is exactly what a roll up should be, you are only looking to boost the price of a Cheltenham fancy no ?
8/1 to 9.5/1 is still a 16% boost so you've successfully secured increased value on Ferny Hollow.

Try one with Envoi Allen I swear it'll get chinned !

[Topofthegame2021]

The roll ups haven’t been going well lately. Getting Allaho for the RyanAir into a roll up seems to be cursed! I’m having so much fun with them though so I have done the below:

0.75pts
wolves vs Southampton - BTTS
Epatante - fighting fifth
Marie’s Rock - Gerry Fielden
Envoi Allen - Marsh
Shiskin - Arkle

if the first three win its an 81/1 double for the “bankers”

[Rhinestone_Cowboy]

Nice one MoM, this is what this thread is all about. I’m being very cautious on the roll ups this year as I am generating so many free bets. That said the one favourite I haven’t got stuck into due to the price is Easysland...so I have just put 3 of the recent big 3 roll up tips onto Easyslands at 53/1 with 365 for a point:

Trinbago 7/5 (MoM)
Golden Pal 100/3 (Gjt)
Philadelphia Eagles under 9.5 regular season wins 20/27 (Ista)

A couple of those prices are a bit tighter than originally advised and Golden Pal bets do not appear to allow cash out which is a bit annoying but happy to roll with it

After the Eagles lost again on Sunday night the FJ banker treble as I called it landed nicely. Thanks to the 3 tipsters for their excellence. Had a decent bet on the treble at around 14/1 and although Easysland becomes a decent winner deliberating cashing out for a decent return on the back of the news/rumours from the other day. Still not sure what to do.

Anyway in the wise words of FM if you can’t be a judge be a judge of judges

[Spectre]

Anyway in the wise words of FM if you can’t be a judge be a judge of judges

Wise words indeed.

[ryanh97]

Dortmund -1
PSG & BTTS
Man Utd & Over 2.5 goals
Shewearsitwell

0.4pt free bet - 49/1

[Craigy14]

Next 3 on my hit list are Epatante, Chacun and Monkfish.

Gone with some “easy” bet builders with tonight’s champs league games, over 0 goals and over 0 cards in various forms for City, Pool, Real and Atletico games.

Epatante 19.5/1 1P
Chacun Pour Soi 25/1 1P
Monkfish 40/1 1P

[charlie]

I'm gonna get Shishkin in a 10/1+ roll up today. Mark my words, it's happening!

[Spectre]

I'm liking the roll-ups so far. I'd never thought about doing them before I joined here, but since I saw the light I've created a very healthy looking position. That said I've been picking and choosing my opportunities very carefully, and not throwing any old dart at them. I've been constantly looking for the least risk best value bets to roll-up from

It takes patience and time, and no little restraint too. I've currently got 4 horses I want to get into roll-ups, Saint Roi, Sire Du Berlais, Galvin, and Monkfish, and have been looking to do so for 3 weeks now. But I just haven't found the right opportunity. I've got them all covered in singles, so perhaps my patience comes from having that comfort blanket, but I could easily have pushed the button on something if I didn't already have them onside, Far too many times though I would have wasted the points. I do get why people are having multiple attempts at getting single horses on side, but I think it's sensible to have a strategy for it, and to stay disciplined.

Currently I have 19 roll-ups in play and haven't wasted a point so far. I will I'm sure though, because it's always a matter of time before the betting gods come and bite me in the arse. So far of the 19 roll-ups I've done, 9 rely on Altior winning the Tingle Creek, so he's currently my only risk of all of my current roll-ups making it to the Festival. That, and injury to any of the Cheltenham horses. But that risk is there for any bet. Crucially though, pretty much any one of the roll-ups I've done coming in would mean break even or a profit. For the record today I have roll-ups running on to the following horses:

Easysland
Tiger Roll
Envoi Allen
Shishkin
Epatante x 2
Abracadabras
Goshen
Al Boum Photo
Minella Indo
Santini
Chacun Pour Soi x 2
Honeysuckle x 3 (MH/AR/MC)
Benie Des Dieux
Sir Gerhard
Shewearsitwell
Quilixios

I think anyone with the position above would feel as confident as I do about making a profit. But would that still be so if I'd already thrown away 30, 50, or even 100points away? I'm not saying this to show that I'm smart, because there's a very real possibility I'm not, and in actual fact I'm going to go out of my way to prove that I'm not!

Instinctively I want to say no to throwing points at roll-ups more liberally, because I'm naturally cautious about the bets that I make. My strength is my discipline. It really works for me, and it's the fundamental reason that I'm a profitable punter. I don't like wasting money on something overly speculative if I don't have a lay side that I can take advantage of in the future. I'm very sensible in my approach to form study, trends, statistics, and general research. I go out of my way to seek out information, and to interpret what trainers and jockeys say and don't say. Essentially I put a lot of hard work into my betting and staking.

But there is also an argument to be made that says I should bottle up all my instincts and throw caution to the wind with roll-ups. And with some investigation and research I think it's possible that I could make a compelling case that I need to reinvent my strategies around multiples and focus more heavily on roll-ups.

Excluding novices and juveniles I plan to use the opening prices for horses such as Envoi Allen 6/1, Shiskin 5/1, Easysland 3/1, Epatante 5/1, Honeysuckle 5/1, etc, and look at what would have happened if I'd got them onside in roll-ups immediately after the Festival, Then I want to look at any other horses trading at 10/1 or less by October 1st, November 1st, December 1, and January 1st, and do the same thing. Then when the Festival is over I'll back fit the average multiple I achieved on my actual roll-ups and I'll work out how many points I would have made by having all those horses onside in roll-ups. Finally I'll work the maths out to how many points I would be able to afford to waste on failed roll-ups prior to the Festival to achieve a 25%/50%/75%/100% ROI. I.e. can I waste 2, 3, 4, 5, more?, points on average per horse to achieve those ROI's.

I can then compare the back-fitted approach to my actual roll-up results, and also my regular Festival multiples, to establish where I should be investing in bets, or what split of the two is appropriate.

I started thinking about all of this because my general observation is that many on here take a very loose approach to roll-ups, and appear to lose a fair amount of stake on failed roll-ups. It all feels rushed and speculative, and I was actually thinking some of you were a bit bonkers. Which may be true generally but I suspect not as bonkers as I thought with regards to backing roll-ups. I'd be fairly certain that there will be plenty that have appeared to throw points away, that will end up with a better ROI than me from roll-ups, despite the fact it looks like I have a really good book in November. So now I'm on a mission to to prove that those that are bonkers are actually sane, and that the cautious and rational are downright stupid!

[Saxon Warrior]

Spectre,

For me, Roll-Ups are so much better than doing just long-range Festival Doubles, Trebles, Trixies etc through the summer/autumn/Christmas.

Doing Doll-Ups, allows you to pick definite runners that you fancy to win during the year, and match them with a Festival horse that want to get onside.

I tend to do Roll-Ups in addition to backing the horse in a win single during the season.

Ive got Rouge Vif at 25/1 for the Tingle Creek next week - I mentioned it on the day RV won in October that Betfred hadn’t moved their price from 25/1 when everyone else had halved their prices.

Ive put a few small stake roll-ups in with the win single bet, just in case that longshot price comes in.

I usually use roll-ups in the more sensible way, backing a shortie with a Festival horse in a double, which gives me the fun of watching short-priced horses run and win (that I would never back in singles), and increase my Festival horse’s price.

Im finding it way more interesting, week by week, than having Festival-only multis/doubles - it’s been an enjoyable change in my betting this year.