Cheltenham Festival Roll-Ups

[Saxon Warrior]

Perhaps we need a collective re-think and approach to the diaries across the forum then? A model for them perhaps?

It depends what people use them for, if at all....





When I started them, it was purely to remove the "this is what I've done" from every single individual race thread to leave the 'race threads' to be about reasoned debate and not "should I cash this out" etc...

It'll never be perfect, but there seems to be a genuine need to review the set-up as it is now...

Kev,

The Diaries are a great idea.

A brilliant place to put your Cheltenham Festival Single bets, on Page 1, and then a trail of posts afterwards that confirms when the bets were landed on, and the reasoning why.

I do love writing my own reason for placing bets, and love reading other peoples too.

As I mentioned above, I am struggling with the morphing of Diaries going beyond pure Cheltenham single bets and Festival multis/doubles, to include rollovers, but am thinking through a solution.

Maybe it could look like:

--------------------------

RSA Chase
1pt - Easywork 33/1
1pt - The Big Getaway 25/1
------------------------------
Rollover 0.25pt@80/1 Monkfish (full bet recorded in Rollover section below)

*All Rollover pre-Festival losses recorded in one total in the Rollover section below
------------------------------


At least that places your running-on Rollover bets in each race, so covers the holes that there would be if you didnt quote it anywhere.

Either that or possibly:

* Dont quote rollovers at all
* Only quote rollovers in a section of its own
* Set up a diary in a new Diary section within Flat Racing or Sports Betting, to put your rollover bets on your Diary Page 1, Post 1, as these bets are linked beyond Cheltenham Festival and have their birth in other betting activity.

Maybe we could have a poll on it.

[Spectre]

Yes. That makes sense. The rollover bet is referenced twice, but only recorded once as a bet. It also ensures a complete coverage picture for each individual race.

[Eggs]

...rather than individual audit trail, I’d suggest using this thread if posters feel they have a really strong recommendation that can be utilised in a roll-up. I’ve put a few I’ve done today but wouldn’t in the least suggest anybody backs them, so it’s a bit pointless other than personal accountability.

Use the diary to record your wagers if you want an audit.

As an example, there’s a strong word for Golden Pal in the Breeders Cup thread. Golden Pal is an ideal nomination in here.

[Craigy14]

I purely use roll ups to try and get shorter price horses I wouldn’t have a single on at the minute in my book at a better price.

Have only attempted 4 at present, one with Tiz The Law doubled with Champ (think I’ve put this in my single bets by mistake and not the multis/rolls up section). The other 3 were recorded as losses because Jiminez decided to miss a penalty

I do like them and will always record them whether winners or losers.

[Istabraq]

I purely use roll ups to try and get shorter price horses I wouldn’t have a single on at the minute in my book at a better price.

I think this is sensible and what most people use it for.
Alternatively, use a very short priced event and double with your Cheltenham selection to increase the price, e.g as long as I'll be allowed to I'll throw an NFL selection I'm confident will win, Kansas City Chiefs to win AFC West at 2/9, which will turn a 10/1 horse into a shade better than 12/1, 16/1 into almost 20/1 etc...

[OscarWhisky]

I don’t have a diary, I may change that next year but I greatly enjoy reading contributors extracts. I hope therefore no one considers it too cheeky to proffer an opinion.

I think diaries are great and should be used at the authors discretion. Spectres recent posts were fascinating, I’ve seen far less discussion and justification on thought processes and method from some professional punters!
However..... i think it’s particularly helpful to keep debate on selections to the actual threads themselves otherwise it’s easy to lose track! Kev’s method of inserting a link to the actual discussion thread when stating a bet in his diary is really useful.

On the subject of roll-ups then I’d advocate a simple approach. If I do a 1pt double with a horse running today (lets say at EVS) with an ante post selection at Cheltz (let’s say at 5/1) and it wins then I think the fairest way of recording is 2pts at 5/1. It’s that after all that best reflects the open bet/investment in your book. Whilst the net result is the same I think it’s slightly misleading to record it as 1pt @ 10/1 as the ante post selection was never that price in the first place?

And if the EVS money shot lost then I wouldn’t advocate recording it; you simply don’t have any current investment rolling on to Cheltenham, just a failed attempt at a double?

I also advocate what Kev said about aftertiming. The roll-ups discussion should be about the practice, perhaps some tips and a discussion.... not after-timing with the end result being, for example, a “1pt bet on Envoi Allen at 500/1”.

That said irrespective how you chaps continue to record I’ll still read, and a big thank you for all of your endeavours!

[Istabraq]

I don’t have a diary, I may change that next year but I greatly enjoy reading contributors extracts. I hope therefore no one considers it too cheeky to proffer an opinion.

I think diaries are great and should be used at the authors discretion. Spectres recent posts were fascinating, I’ve seen far less discussion and justification on thought processes and method from some professional punters!
However..... i think it’s particularly helpful to keep debate on selections to the actual threads themselves otherwise it’s easy to lose track! Kev’s method of inserting a link to the actual discussion thread when stating a bet in his diary is really useful.

On the subject of roll-ups then I’d advocate a simple approach. If I do a 1pt double with a horse running today (lets say at EVS) with an ante post selection at Cheltz (let’s say at 5/1) and it wins then I think the fairest way of recording is 2pts at 5/1. It’s that after all that best reflects the open bet/investment in your book. Whilst the net result is the same I think it’s slightly misleading to record it as 1pt @ 10/1 as the ante post selection was never that price in the first place?

And if the EVS money shot lost then I wouldn’t advocate recording it; you simply don’t have any current investment rolling on to Cheltenham, just a failed attempt at a double?

I also advocate what Kev said about aftertiming. The roll-ups discussion should be about the practice, perhaps some tips and a discussion.... not after-timing with the end result being, for example, a “1pt bet on Envoi Allen at 500/1”.

That said irrespective how you chaps continue to record I’ll still read, and a big thank you for all of your endeavours!

Useful comments there OW.
I don't get hung up on how people record bets in their diary, I don't possess the patience or skills needed to record a precise P&L or percentage profit, but your point about stating 1 point on an even money winner which goes onto a 5/1 shot at Cheltenham being recorded as a 2 point bet has to be wrong as the outlay was only ever 1 point and overall P&L becomes skewered on that basis.
Or am I missing something ?

[OscarWhisky]

Useful comments there OW.
I don't get hung up on how people record bets in their diary, I don't possess the patience or skills needed to record a precise P&L or percentage profit, but your point about stating 1 point on an even money winner which goes onto a 5/1 shot at Cheltenham being recorded as a 2 point bet has to be wrong as the outlay was only ever 1 point and overall P&L becomes skewered on that basis.
Or am I missing something ?

Well whilst your original outlay was only 1pt it’s easy to forget you could have banked another 1pt profit from the original EVS money selection? So effectively you’ve tied up 2pts on the 5/1 ante post selection at Cheltenham?

As you say I won’t get too hung up, if I did I wouldn’t read some of the diary analysis or I’d ignore this thread... and I don’t as I find it all invaluable. My bigger point is the doubling of the ante post odds selection in this example. The ante post selection was never a 10/1 shot, a successful roll up is merely the manufacturing of a bigger investment at 5/1!

[Kevloaf]

The reluctance to count the 'rolled over' stake as actual stake is if it then became a non runner. I'd be loathed to consider that a loss at anything higher than the original stake.


If I had an EVENS winner rolling onto a 5/1 shot, and I hadn't posted it beforehand - that'd be recorded in my book as "6 pts on 'Horse' at 5/1

If 'Horse' got injured, it'd skew my diary on here as 6 points lost, whereas in reality I'd have only lost 1 point.



The fact I'm having to waste time thinking about how that looks though highlights that we've gone wrong somewhere?


One of the facts that has to be mentioned is that we don't post any of our actual daily/lifetime/normal bets on here - I can only really recall a few of us ever mentioning our overall records, and whilst I know have, essentially nobody knows if it's legitimate because I have absolutely no interest in posting literally every bet I have, purely because their is too little gain for time that'd be input.

With that being the reality, it forces a certain mentality to make the Cheltenham ante post bets look as good as humanly possible. Nobody wants to be posting up a losing book, even though it's a great community and people will genuinly offer help, it's just natural to want to present the best book possible.

Depending on personal betting preferences that might not matter at all though!

[Spectre]

I like Saxon Warrior’s suggestion of posting roll up as multis in their own section, and put the roll up in the specific race under the line in italics to show a complete book at the original stake and odds generated. The bet itself is only counted in the roll up multi section.

I’m going to do that over the next couple of days, so if it looks okay when I have perhaps we can adopt it? If when I’ve done it there are other/better ideas I’ll re do it to whatever we think works.

[Saxon Warrior]

I like Saxon Warrior’s suggestion of posting roll up as multis in their own section, and put the roll up in the specific race under the line in italics to show a complete book at the original stake and odds generated. The bet itself is only counted in the roll up multi section.

I’m going to do that over the next couple of days, so if it looks okay when I have perhaps we can adopt it? If when I’ve done it there are other/better ideas I’ll re do it to whatever we think works.

Mares Novice Hurdle
0.66pt - Princess Zoe 50/1
0.66pt - Echoes In Rain 50/1
‐--------------------------------------------------
Rollover 0.6pt - Queens Brook @24/1 (see Rollover section for full bet details)

[Quevega]

Just looked up Roll Ups.
on google.

It appears to be some sort of 'sit up' type exercise, involving the full body.
It is also another name for a hand rolled cigarette.
And is used to describe many types of food, such as Fruit Roll-ups, Chicken Roll-ups, and Cheese Roll-ups.

Chicken roll-ups sounded really interesting then I clicked on it and it turns out that it's just a chicken wrap.

No mention of a Roll-up as a type of bet.

Thread is therefore void.

[Kevloaf]

Just looked up Roll Ups.
on google.

It appears to be some sort of 'sit up' type exercise, involving the full body.
It is also another name for a hand rolled cigarette.
And is used to describe many types of food, such as Fruit Roll-ups, Chicken Roll-ups, and Cheese Roll-ups.

Chicken roll-ups sounded really interesting then I clicked on it and it turns out that it's just a chicken wrap.

No mention of a Roll-up as a type of bet.

Thread is therefore void.

Why don't you look up "constructive criticism"

[Ray]

Im going to go for Braid Blue In the 3.05 at downpatrick today has some nice hurdle form in behind champagne well at cheltenham and that should transition to fences today as he isnt running against much and may just needed the run last time out, im putting envoi allen and alboumphoto in with him today for a roll up

[Ray]

Well that was fun whilst it lasted, fell at the first! I love wasting free bets its the bollocks