Cheltenham Festival Roll-Ups

[The King Pimm]

Everything I put Saint Roi in goes pear shaped

I’ve had the same issue with a few horses. Last season it was abracadabras, I must have wasted 5 points trying to land him in a roll up, it was only stupidity and stubbornness that kept me going until I conceded and started adding him to multiples. This season the horse that keeps slipping off the line is Paisley Park and Diol Kerr so not worried too much but may give up soon

[Lobos]

I never do roll ups but still manage to make a profit just backing the Cheltenham horses AP. Each to their own but sometimes the simple approach can be the better approach.

[Kevloaf]

PSG seem big at 15/8 to beat leipzig tonight. Mbappe and Neymar are injured but that price seems an overreaction. PSG have won their last 3 games with an aggregate score of 9-0 whilst leipzig got smashed 5-0 by Man utd

Unlucky, started well. How many points did you lose? You forgot to post up beforehand.

[Kevloaf]

I never do roll ups but still manage to make a profit just backing the Cheltenham horses AP. Each to their own but sometimes the simple approach can be the better approach.

The invisible profit portfolio.

[Kevloaf]

This is why I think it’s useful to record failed roll ups as lost points. Not recording them as lost is kidding your/ourselves is it not?

I do like them and use them and have recorded all of mine so far successful or not, sure I’m roughly 50% strike with them so far.

If failing 3/4 times to get a horse onside doesn’t seem worth it (depending how big the roll up of course).

They just have to be recorded beforehand, or it'll get out of control. I'd be surprised if anyone at all has managed to post up every single attempted bet beforehand. I posted my most accurate standings with them in my diary last week, and I know for a fact I haven't put every single one of them up - so I'm not pointing the finger and saying anyone is doing it on purpose, I know myself how hard it is to do.

I don't know how we can move forward though, unless we just have a blanket approach that unless it's posted beforehand, you don't include it in the diary? Or keep a running P/L?

Any ideas anyone?

[Lobos]

They just have to be recorded beforehand, or it'll get out of control. I'd be surprised if anyone at all has managed to post up every single attempted bet beforehand. I posted my most accurate standings with them in my diary last week, and I know for a fact I haven't put every single one of them up - so I'm not pointing the finger and saying anyone is doing it on purpose, I know myself how hard it is to do.

I don't know how we can move forward though, unless we just have a blanket approach that unless it's posted beforehand, you don't include it in the diary? Or keep a running P/L?

Any ideas anyone?

Just trust what each other say. Simples.

[Istabraq]

They just have to be recorded beforehand, or it'll get out of control. I'd be surprised if anyone at all has managed to post up every single attempted bet beforehand. I posted my most accurate standings with them in my diary last week, and I know for a fact I haven't put every single one of them up - so I'm not pointing the finger and saying anyone is doing it on purpose, I know myself how hard it is to do.

I don't know how we can move forward though, unless we just have a blanket approach that unless it's posted beforehand, you don't include it in the diary? Or keep a running P/L?

Any ideas anyone?

No ideas Kev, but I don’t see what upside people get from attempting to create a more profitable portfolio, if people choose to do that then fair enough no-one can manage that, but they’re deceiving themselves and if they’re comfortable with that there’s no comeback....

[Saxon Warrior]

The purest form is Win Singles on Festival selections.

That could be the main thrust of diaries - Section A - with a separate profit or loss calculated.

Rollovers are really the same as Multiple bets, which probably may not get fully listed for those that do a lot of them.
Maybe diarists could have a Section B with all of those bets in (Rollovers, Doubles, Multi’s) including a total sum for those that have lost along the way, and a list of those that are still ‘in play’.

The two sections could be totalled up for a Festival Profit or Loss calculation.

Forum members could then see how successful each Diary was on Win Single selections (Section A) and how successful each Diary was on multi’s, doubles, rollover etc. (Section B).

[dannycraigpirates]

Not sure it really matters how it’s reported, each to their own surely.....

I personally choose to calculate the returns prior to my Festival selections running and exchange that into a new value for how many points placed, and add that as a single against a particular horse.

I’m kidding myself if I think 1 point @ 19/1 (with a final selection of evens for a Festival runner for example) isn’t actually 10 points @ EVS on that horse...and so decide to annotate it showing this.

FWIW, my record keeping is broken up as race by race singles, free bets, doubles, and then combos. That bit could probably do with some work but I am trying to improve year on year

[Craigy14]

They just have to be recorded beforehand, or it'll get out of control. I'd be surprised if anyone at all has managed to post up every single attempted bet beforehand. I posted my most accurate standings with them in my diary last week, and I know for a fact I haven't put every single one of them up - so I'm not pointing the finger and saying anyone is doing it on purpose, I know myself how hard it is to do.

I don't know how we can move forward though, unless we just have a blanket approach that unless it's posted beforehand, you don't include it in the diary? Or keep a running P/L?

Any ideas anyone?

Totally agree Kev, hence stating kidding your/ourselves by not recording. Can guarantee if not posted before and fails it will never see the forum, if it wins however it will be up there

I know not everyone may have time to post beforehand but it does only take a minute or 2.

As I’ve said numerous times the roll ups is purely for horses I see as too short for singles at this stage, although I am going for gold cup horses as well (they are fairly short too if I’m honest).

Ive managed to keep it under control and have only attempted what is in my diary with mixed success thus far. I think getting too caught up in roll ups is where you are starting to lose point after point to get a horse onside and it loses its value.

I have a small list of who I want to get onside and I won’t keep adding horses to it for the sake of it

Edit - have attempted 8 so far (8 points), 4 wins 4 losses, 1 outstanding which I’ll know my fate with Golden Pal running tomorrow.

[Ray]

Im gonna try a roll up tonight on some football rolled into the shorties for the festival..i personally dont care much for recording my bets im all about cheltenham so if i was to win a couple of hundred on the first race in march even though ive bet a grand over the course of the year im still chuffed with myself ..silly approach but its how i enjoy it..i do think this though, if you are going to get technical and talk about what horses you have backed and at what price etc, you should show it to everyone on here in the form of a diary

for me im not arsed, on the day when im pissed and start chasing thats usually when i make my money..most my ante post do lose so my diary would look shocking

[ComplyOrDie]

They just have to be recorded beforehand, or it'll get out of control. I'd be surprised if anyone at all has managed to post up every single attempted bet beforehand. I posted my most accurate standings with them in my diary last week, and I know for a fact I haven't put every single one of them up - so I'm not pointing the finger and saying anyone is doing it on purpose, I know myself how hard it is to do.

I don't know how we can move forward though, unless we just have a blanket approach that unless it's posted beforehand, you don't include it in the diary? Or keep a running P/L?

Any ideas anyone?

I fear there are a quite a few that are not reported (I mean we still have plenty of members who can't even be bothered to start a diary on here ), this shows up (IMO) when someone after times bets constantly. I can accept the odd one or two, none of us are on here 24/7, and it's not life or death.

I'm 99% sure I've added every single roll up (though sound like I'm in the minority from your post). A rolling P/L should be fairly easy to update, and it is the one thing I do keep up to date, that said, sometimes I forget to adjust my total live stakes but I'd view these as less important.

Unfortunately it is a case of trusting what everyone says they have staked/lost/won, and I can't see that changing. We can't disprove someone saying something just because they don't want to reveal their bets though.

[nortonscoin200]

I've found the easiest way to keep tabs on all bets is to log each one into the first page of my diary AS SOON AS I place the bet. It becomes a habit - otherwise you are bound to miss some bets out and the diary only gives part of the picture.

Having a race by race section for singles makes it easy to monitor. Putting in a total showing overall stakes at the bottom - and current profit/loss - enables you to instantly review the extent of your liabilities.

Creating separate sections for doubles, trebles, four-timers etc - with a similar grand total at the bottom and current profit/loss - enables you to again monitor liabilities on multiples and how well/poorly they perform.

Then having a grand total at the bottom showing the overall value of bets - and overall profit/loss - instantly gives you the bottom line.

The one area I've struggled to reconcile is with free bets.

I haven't counted them as a cost. But really I think I'm kidding myself because they do have a cost to me (ie the dosh I've had to bet to qualify for a free bet) and of course they do have a value.

So in future years I think I'll include free bet stakes as normal bets.

I think multiples which involve backing Cheltenham horses with horses running in other meetings have to form part of the picture. I haven't done any of these bets but I'd certainly put them in a separate section so next March you can see if it was a good/bad move.

I don't pretend this system will suit everyone. People have just got to be comfortable with whatever it is they decide to do. For most (me included) I imagine betting on horses is just a hobby and hobbies usually come with a cost.

Also, we're all probably a bit sensitive about winding up backing a whole host of losers/non runners - so by creating a diary you are putting your punting "expertise" out there for scrutiny which could leave you ending up in a slightly uncomfortable spot....ie...making a whopping loss and feeling a fool.

So there's no denying it's tricky.

But if you are gonna do it you may as well go the whole hog and try to make it as accurate as possible - rather than be a little economical with the actuality in order to paint a rosier picture.

[The King Pimm]

Put 2 roll ups with Shiskin for Arkle:
Ballingers Cross, Gran Luna and No Ordinary Joe with Shiskin

Tomorrow’s Hero, Soaring Glory and Roses Poses with Shiskin

I had placed Soaring Glory in the 2nd treble and not Cool Destination so that’s a dead bet now!!

No Ordinary Joe is now a non runner so I’ve got a double rolling over on to Shiskin and half the return still available. I need to land 3 similar roll ups to get Shiskin on par with the rest of my list in the Arkle

[SharpHat]

Unlucky, started well. How many points did you lose? You forgot to post up beforehand.

Ha you're going to say this is bullshit but didn't have a bet in the end, I dont generally bet on things I can't watch and I don't have btsport. I just thought the price was interesting clearly the bookies know more than me, tho. Altho having 2 players sent off hardly helped my cause