Cheltenham Festival Roll-Ups

[Carnage at Taunton]

With SAF in the yard I can understand why he sent Hermes Allen to the Ballymore. That's a fair point. Just thought McCoy's comments were worth reporting with respect to Nicholls attitude towards the Bartlett.

Absolutely, and McCoy has a valid point.
There's been a fair few horses over the years I’ve said the same about, that’s why I try to work out why I was wrong in guessing a horses race at the festival.
Hendo doesn’t like the bumper, not that keen on the Ballymore or AB it seems for his good young hurdlers,but has plenty of runners in the Supreme over the years.

[Quevega]

Imo SAF is an exception to his rule.
He recognised this was one he could go AB.
Strong stayer that had no chance in the Bally having HA in his stable.
Look of course I may be wrong , I don’t work there.
But I cannot remember too many of his good chasers having success at the festival hurdling.
So I form an opinion as to why.
That’s all this is.

Yeah, I suppose I get irked when people refer or hint at horses being ruined or it costing them a career simply by running in a particular race (especially this example).
It's not only nonsense with regards the vast majority of horses (I accept some may have individual issues, but this will be rare).
It's hardly an advertisement for the sport. And mainly trainer waffle and spin.

With regards Hermes Allen, I'd say the Ballymore did more damage than another three furlongs might have done, as he was laughed at, just like Nigel's horse was when he went to Dublin.
It's hard to believe he went off 9/4 favourite and I was one of his supporters last year.

I backed Captain Teague for the bartlett back in the Summer as I thought that Nichols would learn from the last few seasons when his ballymore horse's have got lapped. And also because he has absolutely no chance in the Ballymore or Supreme.

But he has since been talking of the horse having speed, he should put this in perspective relative to likely opponents IMO - and speed is a nice trait to have over any distance IMO.

You put horses in the races you think they have the best chance of winning is another commonly used mantra attributed to Mr Nichols, and trotted out by punters every other day. This doesn't tally with your Denman and BMG example. Although if you're saying it's all about their chasing career then fair enough to a point, but why run them at all ??

Overall, though I can kind of see him repeating past failures and going for the wrong race with this horse also, he seems to be heading in that direction.
Insanity and all that.

[Carnage at Taunton]

Yeah, I suppose I get irked when people refer or hint at horses being ruined or it costing them a career simply by running in a particular race (especially this example).
It's not only nonsense with regards the vast majority of horses (I accept some may have individual issues, but this will be rare).
It's hardly an advertisement for the sport. And mainly trainer waffle and spin.

With regards Hermes Allen, I'd say the Ballymore did more damage than another three furlongs might have done, as he was laughed at, just like Nigel's horse was when he went to Dublin.
It's hard to believe he went off 9/4 favourite and I was one of his supporters last year.

I backed Captain Teague for the bartlett back in the Summer as I thought that Nichols would learn from the last few seasons when his ballymore horse's have got lapped. And also because he has absolutely no chance in the Ballymore or Supreme.

But he has since been talking of the horse having speed, he should put this in perspective relative to likely opponents IMO - and speed is a nice trait to have over any distance IMO.

You put horses in the races you think they have the best chance of winning is another commonly used mantra attributed to Mr Nichols, and trotted out by punters every other day. This doesn't tally with your Denman and BMG example. Although if you're saying it's all about their chasing career then fair enough to a point, but why run them at all ??

Overall, though I can kind of see him repeating past failures and going for the wrong race with this horse also, he seems to be heading in that direction.
Insanity and all that.

Well I ain’t saying I agree with him Q
Just trying to work out his strategy.
I don’t find it easy to work out trainer decisions, some completely baffle me, but if I’m wanting to wager I do try !!

[Quevega]

Surely one of the most relevant stats in relation to CAT post is the progress made from novice hurdler to novice chaser through to senior chaser factoring in major races won, prize money earnt and improvement in ratings. Different trainers have different strengths as I see it. There is nobody I would trust more than Willie to maximise the potential of a young horse to excel as a novice hurdler. There is nobody I’d trust more to consistently improve his top horses from novice hurdler all the way through to senior chaser than PN.

That does not mean Willie cannot successfully manage this transition nor does it mean that PN cannot have success with novice hurdlers but it’s a relative thing on average over time.

You will never convince Willie to deprioritise a horses novice hurdle career the same as you will never convince PN to prioritise it. The problem for us on here is we are COMPLETELY obsessed with the novice hurdle races, so disproportionately it’s almost insane (and I include myself in this).

This means that any decision he makes that we believe is not in our own interests we have very little patience for. If we were less obsessed with novice hurdlers (like PN) and more obsessed with the transitions from novice hurdler to novice chaser to senior chaser as a holistic entity we would likely appreciate PNs approach a little more.

They are both geniuses, one approach works better for us than the other because of our fixations.

Yeah, I've backed off the novice hurdle races big time this year in comparison to previous years, it's a lot of time and faff that I don;t think pays off long term. Obviously it;s early doors and I could get carried away as it's happened before.

Like I said above, I'm sure Nichols chooses to send his novice hurdlers to Cheltenham with a chance of winning, as everyone, including the man himself says. So even respecting his success at bringing on horses for their chasing career when they stay fit, and not being as "bothered" with champion novice hurdlers ! (I think he loves every winner especially at the festival myself)

If he thinks he has a novice hurdle horse worth running at the festival then he has a duty of care to run it in the right race IMO, and I simply disagree that one race would do more damage to the horses career over the other and that this influences his choice.

[Rooster Booster]

Yeah, I've backed off the novice hurdle races big time this year in comparison to previous years, it's a lot of time and faff that I don;t think pays off long term. Obviously it;s early doors and I could get carried away as it's happened before.

Like I said above, I'm sure Nichols chooses to send his novice hurdlers to Cheltenham with a chance of winning, as everyone, including the man himself says. So even respecting his success at bringing on horses for their chasing career when they stay fit, and not being as "bothered" with champion novice hurdlers ! (I think he loves every winner especially at the festival myself)

If he thinks he has a novice hurdle horse worth running at the festival then he has a duty of care to run it in the right race IMO, and I simply disagree that one race would do more damage to the horses career over the other and that this influences his choice.

I understand why you disagree. I’m not a trainer and haven’t got enough knowledge to know one way or the other. I just know that PNs slower more patient approach does pay off so very often and it’s like his radar is set to such a nuanced degree when it comes to these very fine margins with novice hurdlers. Perhaps this is his genius and whilst it has infuriated me at times the older I get the more I have come to respect and appreciate it.

ps…I’ve just seen your comment re Hermes allen and doing more damage running in the ballymore. I think I agree and I also think it’s possible the trainer may do too. All the more reason to trust him if he tells us Captain Teague is a different horse altogether, and similarly trust him if he decides not to turn up at all.

Hermes is currently on the easy list, I am not saying that’s because of him pitching up at Cheltenham but if god forbid his chase career never takes off, I suspect he will blame himself for making sub optimal decisions with him as a novice hurdler.

At the end of the day it is an outcome driven business and the buck stops with the decision makers. I understand he is not a big unit but he is bred for chasing and I am sure the trainer would see success as a long a fruitful career as a chaser. If he cannot achieve this with him he will have failed in his own eyes. We have no responsibility for outcomes and to us decisions are easy, inconsequential and obvious and if a horse doesn’t fulfil its potential we write it off and move on to the next one without blinking. The trainer obviously does not have that luxury.

[Lobos]

I remember Sir Anthony McCoy stating very clearly on ITV the morning before the Ballymore this year that Hermes Allen was running in the wrong race. He was right. Let's hope Paul Nicholls was listening to the great man.

Not sure that was HA form in the Ballymore. PN said he ran flat. Believe he's had a wind op pre season? Maybe it was his wind ?

[Craigy14]

Not sure that was HA form in the Ballymore. PN said he ran flat. Believe he's had a wind op pre season? Maybe it was his wind ?

Possibly so Lobos, but his prior Cheltenham run and Challow performances screamed 3m imo.

[Kevloaf]

If Stay Away Fay winning the Albert Bartlett doesn't lean Nicholls to run the most over hyped horse in training to go for the same race, it's because he see's him as a different type.

Have to respect that, but then I also don't think Nicholls can train a Ballymore winner in the current landscape, so he's just easy to draw a line through. One of Willie / Henry / Gordon will beat him.

Might as well be Danny Kirwen.



Captain Teague, might as well be 10000/1 - he won't be winning a Supreme or Ballymore








Obviously I'd back to lay at 10000/1

[Rooster Booster]

If Stay Away Fay winning the Albert Bartlett doesn't lean Nicholls to run the most over hyped horse in training to go for the same race, it's because he see's him as a different type.

Have to respect that, but then I also don't think Nicholls can train a Ballymore winner in the current landscape, so he's just easy to draw a line through. One of Willie / Henry / Gordon will beat him.

Might as well be Danny Kirwen.



Captain Teague, might as well be 10000/1 - he won't be winning a Supreme or Ballymore








Obviously I'd back to lay at 10000/1

I tend to agree. But then I don’t think he cares that much. If it happens it happens. I just don’t think he wants or needs to have the winner of either race as much as we do.

[Odin]

Might as well be Danny Kirwen.

A very topical comparison that caught me right in the feels that one!

[Saxon Warrior]

Not sure that was HA form in the Ballymore. PN said he ran flat. Believe he's had a wind op pre season? Maybe it was his wind ?

Defo his wind didnt help.

Couldnt see why they didnt have a wind op during last season, instead they just tried a tongue-tie in every one of his 5 hurdles races, which looked like it may not have worked well every time.

Looks like they knew before he raced for them, that he had a wind issue, hence the tongue-tie from the first start.

He was a banker bet to have a wind-op post-season, and will be an interesting watch those first two runs back.

Pity the officials havent got round to doing the same in Ireland yet, so we havent a clue who could improve 10lb, 20lbs or more, because of those ops.

[Rooster Booster]

Defo his wind didnt help.

Couldnt see why they didnt have a wind op during last season, instead they just tried a tongue-tie in every one of his 5 hurdles races, which looked like it may not have worked well every time.

Looks like they knew before he raced for them, that he had a wind issue, hence the tongue-tie from the first start.

He was a banker bet to have a wind-op post-season, and will be an interesting watch those first two runs back.

Pity the officials havent got round to doing the same in Ireland yet, so we havent a clue who could improve 10lb, 20lbs or more, because of those ops.

Tbf though even the stable cat has had a wind op and word has it that Megan is booked in too.

[Kevloaf]

I tend to agree. But then I don’t think he cares that much. If it happens it happens. I just don’t think he wants or needs to have the winner of either race as much as we do.

I do get your point, he's now looking for future not now

But .... I think Nicholls wants and needs Cheltenham winners more than anyone - he's just not getting them so being smart he's making hay elsewhere

Love Nicholls

[OverTheLast]

On topic of Captain Teague, he's 8/13 to win on Friday .... that's a good roll up option IMO

[Kevloaf]

On topic of Captain Teague, he's 8/13 to win on Friday .... that's a good roll up option IMO

Yeah - solid enough!