Bookmakers Special Offers:

[Eggs]

Paddy Power have a few ‘to go unbeaten’ horses priced up. I struggle to gauge whether they’re decent value or not. The thing I don’t like about them is waiting until after Cheltenham to collect. Think a few of us got stung (although didn’t really deserve to win anyway) with Bob Olinger a couple years ago

….Gaelic Warrior 20-1.

[nortonscoin200]

….Gaelic Warrior 20-1.

Thanks a bundle Eggs - love that one.

[darlojim]

….Gaelic Warrior 20-1.

Thats a cracker that

[Benjy23]

Aye, I'm in for a piece of that. Seems a good way to bring him onside for anyone that fancies him for Stayers but missed the price.

[knockando]

Cut to 10s on Powers and 9s Skybet by the looks

[Lobos]

Aye, I'm in for a piece of that. Seems a good way to bring him onside for anyone that fancies him for Stayers but missed the price.

Not sure it's a good way....

Absolutely hate those type of bets. Rare that they come in. Definitely a bookies benefit. Don't particularly like Roll ups either but whilst he's still 5/1 I'd say that's a far easier/safer/less risky way to get GW on board at 20/1. Maybe just do him in a few short price doubles with the other current 'Bankers' at Cheltenham?

[Lobos]

Cut to 10s on Powers and 9s Skybet by the looks

Horrendous!!!!!

[Benjy23]

If he's not going their unbeaten for the season it's hugely unlikely I'll fancy him for the Stayers or he'll have much chance to be honest. Assuming there's not good excuses for it.

If he does go their unbeaten then he'll be a much shorter price then the current 4s. And it's unlikely you'd be able to roll over singles on him pre festival and create anything close to 20/1 in the scenario imo.

Which means the 20s makes sense.

I don't like the whole roll up philosophy on here. But I think we've done that to death. So I won't start it

He's not a horse I can like enough for the race at 4s. But if you do feel that's a good price or are really keen on him for it and/or already have him covered then I get why the added risk with the 20s may not appeal as much.

[Kevloaf]

If he's not going their unbeaten for the season it's hugely unlikely I'll fancy him for the Stayers or he'll have much chance to be honest. Assuming there's not good excuses for it.

Just thought I'd look back at the last 10 years in this race as I wasn't sure I agreed with the needing to go unbeaten or having not much chance


Year - Winner - form figures going in

2014 - More of That - 111
2015 - Cole Harden - 1234
2016 - Thistlemonster - 111
2017 - Nichols Canyon - 12F
2018 - Penhill - No run that season
2019 - Paisley Park - 1111
2020 - Lisnager Oscar - 239F3
2021 - Flooring Porter - 211
2022 - Flooring Porter - F21
2023 - Sire Du Berlais - 55P4


3 unbeaten horses ... 2 didn't run again and Thistlecrack won at Aintree, so the special would have paid out in all 3 instances

I'm not a fan of the 'to go unbeaten' bets myself ... ante post punting on Cheltenham builds around one day, feels like needing too much to go right to have one go unbeaten all season. Would have no interest whatsoever in Gaelic Warrior at the 10/1 price now to go unbeaten....... he might end up turned over at Punchestown even if he did by some stablemate that's running for prize money

I wouldn't have backed it at 20/1 either though, Gaelic Warrior has only been beaten twice, but both times at Cheltenham .... .... maybe 20/1 was the play, ready to trade out on the day when he's evens and beaten

[Benjy23]

Just thought I'd look back at the last 10 years in this race as I wasn't sure I agreed with the needing to go unbeaten or having not much chance


Year - Winner - form figures going in

2014 - More of That - 111
2015 - Cole Harden - 1234
2016 - Thistlemonster - 111
2017 - Nichols Canyon - 12F
2018 - Penhill - No run that season
2019 - Paisley Park - 1111
2020 - Lisnager Oscar - 239F3
2021 - Flooring Porter - 211
2022 - Flooring Porter - F21
2023 - Sire Du Berlais - 55P4


3 unbeaten horses ... 2 didn't run again and Thistlecrack won at Aintree, so the special would have paid out in all 3 instances

I'm not a fan of the 'to go unbeaten' bets myself ... ante post punting on Cheltenham builds around one day, feels like needing too much to go right to have one go unbeaten all season. Would have no interest whatsoever in Gaelic Warrior at the 10/1 price now to go unbeaten....... he might end up turned over at Punchestown even if he did by some stablemate that's running for prize money

I wouldn't have backed it at 20/1 either though, Gaelic Warrior has only been beaten twice, but both times at Cheltenham .... .... maybe 20/1 was the play, ready to trade out on the day when he's evens and beaten

Aye, good research.

I didn't mean they always needed to go unbeaten to win the Stayers tbh. I just meant for me to fancy Gaelic Warrior I think he does. As you say his defeats are actually at Cheltenham. He's seen as better right handed etc. If he's beaten beforehand then it'd be hard to actually fancy him for the Stayers in 99% of scenarios.

And your final paragraphs probably says as much. Just seems the right value call at this point for me.

Although I obviously wouldn't have the sense to trade out when it came down to it.

Flooring Porter for example was known to often need his first run and many played it that way, waiting for the drift. He's not one I'd need to see unbeaten prior to a Stayers.

[Kevloaf]

Haha, no I wouldn't trade out a 20/1 unbeaten horse for Willie Mullins as almost certain favourite for the Stayers Hurdle either to be honest, but I don't think Gaelic Warrior is a good favourite for the race myself at this point, at that price.... but that's for another thread

[Lobos]

Might be that he's unbeaten leading up to Cheltenham, wins Stayers and then goes to Punchestown where clearly he'd get beat by Klassical Dream They could even go to France with him for their Champion Hurdle. Too many 'Hurdles' to potentially cross.

[Eggs]

….looks like it’s a Double Odds Boost week with Hills.

Opt in required, fiver max, expires next Sunday.

[Carnage at Taunton]

….looks like it’s a Double Odds Boost week with Hills.

Opt in required, fiver max, expires next Sunday.

Thanks Eggs
Decided to join the Mr Policeman Arkle brigade.
24/1 is a nice start

[Mighty]

I’m assuming the lack of an opt in button means my card is marked?