Horses to avoid for the 2021 Cheltenham festival

[Scooby91]

Enjoyed reading the blog Scooby.

Do you not see Minella Indo as Grade 1 chaser in open company. I'm surprised you rate him as low 150s. Of all the novice chasers from last season, he'd be the one I like most.

Hope you're keeping well btw

At this stage, I dont see him as winning one.
He may well progress into a proper grade 1 open class horse a nd i wouldnt knock you liking him the most, but on what he has actually achieved to date over fences, I personally couldn't rate him any higher than 152-154P at a push myself.

I am thanks, and yourself.

[Spectre]

Novices will be tough. We've missed a whole host of bumpers because of covid. And not just aintree/ punchestown. There would have been plenty that bolted up. Some form would have been reversed imo. And hendo would have brung atleast one out to the usual spot/ or aintree, the goffs landrover or up at ayr.

Anyone making a book is playing with fire imo. As they may not have heard of the winner/ be in the betting market at all.

Based on usual Seven Barrows MO and your specific reading of Flinteur Sacre I 100% agree with your assessment Scooby. He's priced based on his breeding rather than what he's actually done, and there is enough in there so far to avoid him for now.

[Spectre]

I think it was pretty rubbish tbh. Allaho dosent really stay 3m. The 2nd has potential to improve but imo is low 150s. Slate house isn't top class. Tizzards other horse is a nice solid handicapper.

It's why I diddnt bother backing anything other than champ. Or to cover. As I thought it was poor beforehand. And that he's pretty good without thinking he'd progress on to win the big one.

I'm in a different place with regards the RSA though, but not necessarily your assessment and reasoning for avoiding Champ, who is needed for a book. Champ is a mature horse who benefited because Minella Indo and Allaho took each other on too far out. His capacity for improvement is lower than both Minella Indo and Allaho though, and with neither of the first two necessarily needing to make the running in a Gold Cup they will benefit from being able to travel into the race, and potentially having a higher ceiling for improvement.

So whilst I agree Champ is a valid one to have on you avoid list, I don't think it automatically makes it true of Allaho and Minella Indo. It's dangerous to write either off when they clearly went too quick. Both are lightly raced but talented individuals and none of us have any idea what the ceiling of their ability is. Personally I'm happy with the handicappers assessment at 160 for Minella Indo, with the lowest I could have him being 158. Going at the pace they did, and treading water up the hill, the rest, who are decent horses in their own right, were beaten like they were low grade handicappers.

Allaho is 157 which is the same rating that Lostintranslation had after Chelenham the previous season. LiT was a similar suspect stayer to Allaho and was only beaten one and half lengths by the 175 rated Al Boum Photo in a slow run Gold Cup. He's also now rated 171 and over the Gold Cup trip, so it's impossible to say similar improvement couldn't be expected from either Minella Indo or Allaho. Particularity as those two are much more lightly raced and inexperienced at the same stage of their careers.

The key to Allaho is likely to be how the race is run, and if it's run similarly to last March he's a player. I don't think it will be though, which in my opinion also plays against Al Boum Photo, who had it set up for him perfectly in March, after winning a better run but poor renewal the previous season. If it's a true Championship pace the two likely to benefit most are Santini and Minella Indo. At the moment I'd have Minella Indo at the top of my list of likely winners, and definitely not in the avoid category alongside Champ.

[Saxon Warrior]

Minella Indo (aged 7 going into the season) is so very lightly raced to date, with only 8 runs under rules, including 3 chases, that I think he has plenty of room for improvement.

He was a lightly raced RSA contender last season, and I would expect he would have more than two runs in the build up to the Gold Cup this season, to get a bit more experience of championship-racing.

Probably more room for improvement than the majority of the last 10 Gold Cup winners, at the start of their GC winning season.

Only Coneygree, of the last 10 Gold Cup winners was raced less-often at the start of their Gold Cup season, he then had three chase runs in his Gold Cup season before he won in it.

Start of Gold Cup winning Season
2020 Al Boum Photo 8yo (14 runs under rules, incl 9 chases)
2019 Al Boum Photo 7yo (11 runs, incl 6 chases))
2018 Native River 8yo (19 runs, incl 12 chases)
2017 Sizing John 7yo (13 runs, incl 6 chases)
2016 Don Cossack 9yo (22 runs, incl 14 chases)
2015 Coneygree 8yo (6 runs, incl 0 chases)
2014 Lord Windermere 8yo (12 runs, incl 6 chases)
2013 Bobs Worth 8yo (10 runs, incl 4 chases)
2012 Synchronised 9yo (15 runs, incl 7 chases)
2011 Long Run 6yo (15 runs, incl 7 chases)

[Halffat1]

Probably more room for improvement than the majority of the last 10 Gold Cup winners, at the start of their GC winning season.

Only Coneygree, of the last 10 Gold Cup winners was raced less-often at the start of their Gold Cup season, he then had three chase runs in his Gold Cup season before he won in it.

Certainly horses like Allaho and Minella Indo have more for scope for improvement than recent Gold Cup winners, but presumably the counter argument is that unexposed horses in a Gold Cup season have a poor record?

[Saxon Warrior]

Certainly horses like Allaho and Minella Indo have more for scope for improvement than recent Gold Cup winners, but presumably the counter argument is that unexposed horses in a Gold Cup season have a poor record?

Always two sides to every story.

[EnvoyAllen]

Novices will be tough. We've missed a whole host of bumpers because of covid. And not just aintree/ punchestown. There would have been plenty that bolted up. Some form would have been reversed imo. And hendo would have brung atleast one out to the usual spot/ or aintree, the goffs landrover or up at ayr.

Anyone making a book is playing with fire imo. As they may not have heard of the winner/ be in the betting market at all.

Are you suggesting Mr Scoobs that out there, potentially, are two horses that might have the beating of Shishkin and Envoi Allen next year over fences? If so, though we lost a very small part of the National Hunt Season, say 6 weeks after Cheltenham, why would we not know or have the tiniest inkling of those horses that really could give these two a very good race in 6 months time? I’m a touch lost, so please forgive my ineptitude.....!

[Kevloaf]

Are you suggesting Mr Scoobs that out there, potentially, are two horses that might have the beating of Shishkin and Envoi Allen next year over fences? If so, though we lost a very small part of the National Hunt Season, say 6 weeks after Cheltenham, why would we not know or have the tiniest inkling of those horses that really could give these two a very good race in 6 months time? I’m a touch lost, so please forgive my ineptitude.....!

He's talking about the novice hurdle division in particular there when I read it.

[EnvoyAllen]

That’s what I assumed. But very ambiguous as to whether Scoobs was intimating last season’s or the upcoming one.....?

[Kevloaf]

That’s what I assumed. But very ambiguous as to whether Scoobs was intimating last season’s or the upcoming one.....?

Maybe he's being purposefully misleading



It's just obvious advice isn't it that plenty have said.... be wary of the form from this season because the season was cut short.



You don't really have to limit it to novices either, although they're the ones where we genuinly could have not seen a star still.



Anyone building a book in the Supreme over the Summer before the season starts is also pretty bonkers, so again, pretty obvious advice

[Scooby91]

That’s what I assumed. But very ambiguous as to whether Scoobs was intimating last season’s or the upcoming one.....?

This season coming. Nov hurdles will be extremely difficult. Because of all the missed bumpers

Nov chasing to a strong extent too. I haven't backed either of the above pair, and wont be doing so either at anywhere near current prices.


If champ diddnt go to aintree and step up to 3M, i wouldn't have backed for the RSA.

If lost in translation diddnt go to aintree and step up from the supreme to 2m4, I wouldn't have backed for the JLT.


Would anyone have backed buveur dair for the champion if he diddnt win the 2miler going away at aintree, probably not.

If faugheen diddnt drop to 2m at punchestown with vautour going the other way. Nobody would have nailed the CH /JLT antepost .

Same for don cossack in the GC after winning the Punchestown gold cup and relishing the trip. ..... and alboum photo winning all after falling on the RSA

Without aintree Thistlecrack wouldn't have been priced up at all for the stayers the year be won. I certainly wouldn't have been on af 25s antepost.

Countless examples. Where we have missed vital form.

[Istabraq]

It's just obvious advice isn't it that plenty have said.... be wary of the form from this season because the season was cut short.

For me it's more the season lost a big chunk of its' biggest most competitive races.
So many horses appeared rarely or beat up on inferior opposition over the Winter months but we only ever see how good they are when tackling the best at Cheltenham, Aintree and Punchestown and to a lesser extent Ayr and Sandown, so many horses did not go to Cheltenham and pretty much lost their entire season with the cancelled Spring festivals.
Scooby in right in that horses tackling a new trip at any of those festivals against the best in the division will be a clear indication to the following seasons targets.
So many people continue to tell me Chacun Por Soi is the best horse in training, he may well be, but 4 racecourse visits in as many years and a notable defeat against the Ryanair third over an inadequate trip for the winner doesn't confirm this, had he hacked up at Aintree and Punchestown I may have been more on board....

[Ray]

2 big race weeks missed is big, but i think alot of people (myself included) are looking at horses with the overwhelming stat in mind that alot of 2nd 3rd 4th placed horses go on to do well the next time at cheltenham festival

[Ray]

Also, everyones f*****g bored and got nothing else to spend money on!

[archie]

It's clear that horses that run well at one Festival are in with a shout of going well there again.

However, the absence of the extra information provided by Aintree and Punchestown, particularly for this season's novices, is a big miss. Let's face it, there's every chance that Bob Olinger would have stuffed Ballyadam at Punchestown and saved the unwary a massive amount of money.