Foxhunters Chase 2021

[Nortons who]

Re Sametegal, below is what Paul Nicholls said about him before his run today.

"It was great to see him get his head in front at Wincanton recently for the first time in five years on his switch to Hunter Chasing. He has come out of that race in good order and needs to finish in the first four at Fontwell to qualify for the Hunter Chase at Cheltenham. While Sametegal doesn't win very often he is the highest rated horse today and ought to go close".

Sametegal is clearly in good order currently with 2 good runs on the bounce but there are a number of factors which would personally put me off ftom backing him.

# Firstly he's 12 now and 12 year olds have only won 4 times in this since 1946.
# Secondly he isn't from a traditional P2P background, whereas 27 of the last 32 winners have started in and come from a Point to Point background.
# Lastly, Ex Handicappers which had an OR in their prime of more than 140 have done poorly, with only 2 renewals going their way since 2005 and that was Pacha De Polder twice.

[Nortons who]

Re Sametegal, below is what Paul Nicholls said about him before his run today.

"It was great to see him get his head in front at Wincanton recently for the first time in five years on his switch to Hunter Chasing. He has come out of that race in good order and needs to finish in the first four at Fontwell to qualify for the Hunter Chase at Cheltenham. While Sametegal doesn't win very often he is the highest rated horse today and ought to go close".

Sametegal is clearly in good order currently with 2 good runs on the bounce but there are a number of factors which would personally put me off ftom backing him.

# Firstly he's 12 now and 12 year olds have only won 4 times in this since 1946.
# Secondly he isn't from a traditional P2P background, whereas 27 of the last 32 winners have started in and come from a Point to Point background.
# Lastly, Ex Handicappers which had an OR in their prime of more than 140 have done poorly, with only 2 renewals going their way since 2005 and that was Pacha De Polder twice.

Some further info re Sametegal. In Paul Nicholls Monday News update this morning he mentions that Sametegal now qualified to run in the Aintree Foxhunters where he can hopefully be ridden by Natalie Parker. No commrnt at all re Cheltenham Hunters Chase, so my inference from this is that he is possibly bypassing Cheltenham and going straight to Aintree when Amateurs will hopefully be back in the saddle.

[Can't Catch Me]

I see Jury Duty is still entered for this. Does anyone know if he's eligible as I had perhaps wrongly thought he wasnt? Thanks

[Atlantic Viking]

Entries: https://twitter.com/festivalracing/s...927360/photo/1

The aloneamongmillions and The Worlds End dreams were fun while they lasted, which wasn't very long

[isitmarchyet]

Entries: https://twitter.com/festivalracing/s...927360/photo/1

The aloneamongmillions and The Worlds End dreams were fun while they lasted, which wasn't very long

No Highway Jewel is a bit of a blow.

[Nortons who]

I see Jury Duty is still entered for this. Does anyone know if he's eligible as I had perhaps wrongly thought he wasnt? Thanks

Although still entered I don't believe JD has actually qualified. He win in a recent Hunters Chase applies but before that he was only second in a P2P and prior to that he has no previous wins which would count towards this.

[Nortons who]

No Highway Jewel is a bit of a blow.

My understanding is that this may be due to one of the owners not liking the decision by Cheltenham to drop 'Fox' from the official name of the race. He is an active Country side alliance supporter who believes the history of the race has its roots in Foxhunting and that the legacy should preserved even if in name only of the race. See quote below from a week or so ago.

However, Adrian Simpson, who heads a syndicate which owns the mare, is unhappy the word Foxhunter has been replaced by Open in the race title. He says: “We are contemplating not running her [at Cheltenham] due to the name change. The Foxhunter Chase has a richer history than many at the Festival, and yet they’ve changed that link.”

Simpson, hunting liaison officer for the Countryside Alliance in Wales, says: “If it was down to me she wouldn’t run, because I’m so cross about the name change. That would be harsh on Bradley [Gibbs, the mare’s trainer], so I’m taking a view, but I would love to know who changed the name and why.”

[Can't Catch Me]

Although still entered I don't believe JD has actually qualified. He win in a recent Hunters Chase applies but before that he was only second in a P2P and prior to that he has no previous wins which would count towards this.

Thanks Nortons.

[isitmarchyet]

My understanding is that this may be due to one of the owners not liking the decision by Cheltenham to drop 'Fox' from the official name of the race. He is an active Country side alliance supporter who believes the history of the race has its roots in Foxhunting and that the legacy should preserved even if in name only of the race. See quote below from a week or so ago.

However, Adrian Simpson, who heads a syndicate which owns the mare, is unhappy the word Foxhunter has been replaced by Open in the race title. He says: “We are contemplating not running her [at Cheltenham] due to the name change. The Foxhunter Chase has a richer history than many at the Festival, and yet they’ve changed that link.”

Simpson, hunting liaison officer for the Countryside Alliance in Wales, says: “If it was down to me she wouldn’t run, because I’m so cross about the name change. That would be harsh on Bradley [Gibbs, the mare’s trainer], so I’m taking a view, but I would love to know who changed the name and why.”

Ah, had no idea this was a potential issue. Thanks for the info.

[Nortons who]

I have reviewed the 25 entries against the strongest trends for this race and produced my personal opinion of a shortlist for further review. I thought I would share this in case it helps others to narrow down the field.

# Age - Only 3 of the last 73 winners have been 13 years old and no 14 year olds.Takes out :
Hazel Hill
Ravished (also fails on : RPR )
Kruzhlinin (also fails on : RPR, not won under rules, OR in prime).

Additionally 25 of the last 30 winners were less than 11 years old. Takes out :
Back Bar (also fails on RPR)
Caid Du Berlais (also fails on OR in prime).
Monbeg Gold
Road To Rome
Solumn Grundy
Sonneofpresenting
Wishing and Hoping

Note: Although 11 year olds have won 3 of the last 5 renewals, 2 of these were dual winners (On The Fringe and Pacha Du Du Polder) and it is for this reason I have kept It Came To Pass in my shortlist.

So having started with 25 entries, I have discounted 10 straight away based on Age.

# 26 / 27 Have won a race under rules. Takes out :
Mr Mantilla (also fails on RPR).
Porlock Bay (also fails on not having won a race of at least 3m, whereas 15 / 16 have).

# 14 / 16 had a pre race RPR of 130+. Takes out :
Chameron (also fails on OR in prime)
Law of Gold
Mighty Stowaway
Red Indian (also fails on OR in prime)

# Since 2005 ex Handicappers which had an OR greater than 140 in their prime have all been beaten with the exception of Pacha Du Du Polder. This takes out
Jury Duty (who I don't believe has qualified in any case).

This leaves the short list below of 8 :

27 of the last 32 winners have started in / come from a Point to Point background. Those from a P2P background have p2p alongside them.

In the past 73 runnings, 6 horses have doubled up the following year. ICTP is attempting to follow up this year.

6 of the last 11 winners finished in the first 5 the previous year.

# Billaway - p2p, 2nd in 2020
# Bob and Co - (French conditions races background).
# Duhallow Tornado - p2p, 14th in 2020
# It Came to Pass - ex Handicapper, 2020 winner
# Latenightpass - p2p
# Salvatore - p2p
# Staker Wallace - p2p, 4th in 2020
# Stand Up and Fight - ex Handicapper

Jockey bookings could be a factor. As mentioned previously unless Patrick Mullins turns professional to enable him to ride Billaway, IMO it is quite likely that Paul Townend would get the ride, having just ridden the exact same C&D in the Gold Cup.

Alex Edwards has ridden Salvatore in all 17 of his starts and is eligible to claim 3lbs having turned pro earlier this season. AE won this race on Hazel Hill in 2019.

It will be interesting to see who Paul Nicholls chooses to ride Bob & Co. Sean Bowen rode him LTO so I assume he will ride again but PN could go for Angus Cheleda who can claim 7lbs. Bob & Co still looks a poor jumper but has an engine, so SB for experience might be the better choice.

JP McManus has 2 entries both trained by Enda Bolger and either could potentially step up to follow in the footsteps of On The Fringe for the same connections. The market should provide a steer as to which of these two is favoured.

Latenightpass won a recognised trial in the Willoughby De Broke Memorial HC at Warwick but was nearly reeled in on the line and I'm a bit wary this could happen again at Cheltenham.

Billaway seems to be a solid Favourite, albeit that his jumping hasn't always inspired confidence but I expect he will be the popular choice given connections.

Salvatore also interests me as a prolific P2P winner, aged 8 and with an experienced Hunter Chase jockey in Alex Edwards who has won the race previously and is the regular partner of Salvatore (assuming that he doesn't choose to ride Hazel Hill which in itself would then put me off Salvatore).

IMO any of the 8 on my shortlist are capable of winning this but Billaway and Bob & Co are probably the most likely, closely followed by It Came To Pass and Latenightpass. Salvatore could be anything and not really sure why Staker Wallace and Stand Up and Fight will step up on previous efforts in this race but they could.

[charlie]

Thats an outstanding post NW, thank you

[Kevloaf]

Thats an outstanding post NW, thank you

Agreed, it's almost a shame it comes down to the front 2 in the betting as if it ruled either of those out there may be some each way bets to be had!

Good shortlist to check on the day though as there may be some wild prices on offer in this race on the morning.

[Bluefox21]

I really like LateNightPass. Course form and showed a really good attitude lto after a pretty long break.

Glad to see features on your shortlist

[Lobos]

I really like LateNightPass. Course form and showed a really good attitude lto after a pretty long break.

Glad to see features on your shortlist

I like him too. Improving sort. Really good win/run ratio. Course winner and 2/2 over regular fences. Took 33/1 about him but still think he'll go off a decent price in the day.

[DenmanSacre]

I like him too. Improving sort. Really good win/run ratio. Course winner and 2/2 over regular fences. Took 33/1 about him but still think he'll go off a decent price in the day.

Latenightpass is interesting for this and probably be my main play. On the day, if Salvatore is a decent price for a place I'll take that. Stays all day but doesn't have much pace. He will be one to keep going at the end and beat some of the tiring horses to nab 3rd or 4th.