Foxhunters Chase 2021

[Atlantic Viking]

For The Worlds End backers, comments below published in the Sporting Life from Olly Murphy


There was another big upset in the Willougby De Broke Open Hunters’ Chase when 40/1 chance Latenightpass held the rally of Highway Jewel by three-quarters of a length under Bridget Andrews. The Worlds End, trained by Olly Murphy, went off the 5/4 favourite, but was another length back in third.

Murphy said: “He ran fine. He was beaten by two better horses on the day and he had a very hard race today, so we’ll get him back and make a plan. But I don’t think they’ll be too exciting now for a month’s time.

“Whether he’ll be going to Cheltenham now I don’t know, but he’s run fine. People think these things are gimmes but they’re certainly not.

“I don’t know whether we freshen up and go there or go somewhere else. We’ll speak to Max McNeill and the guys and see where we go from there."

10 points to all those who tried to warn us with the words 'Olly' and 'Murphy'. As a very small time backer of TWE i'll say that I could genuinely take some positives from yesterdays run and didn't see it as the unmitigated disaster some have. But yeah... that slip has been mentally filed in the bin already.

[Nortons who]

Surely the horse to take out of yesterday's race would be the winner ?? He's won 7 out of his last 10 and is 2/2 over regular fences with one of those victories being on the Hunters Race champions night at Cheltenham last April. He won cosily and was giving weight to the 2nd and 3rd yesterday and is only 8 years old so plenty of improvement to come potentially. A bit like It Came To Pass last year, he could be the forgotten horse this. I'll definitely be having a saver on him on the day and hopefully he too goes off 66/1.

Lobos

Not so sure, as mentioned a few posts back.

Cheltenham was a much lower grade race and it unfolded very similar to yesterday, with Latenightpass struggling to hold onto lead. Below is in running comments from that Cheltenham win.

"Prominent, went 2nd after 17th, led 19th, quickly drew clear going well before 2 out where 12 lengths ahead, soon idling badly and driven, untidy last, pressed from halfway up run-in but galvanised to hold rival final 100yds, won with ears pricked (op 10/1 tchd 12/1)"

Personally I can still envisage something getting past up the hill.

On the plus side, I had forgotten the Cheltenham win last April means he's now qualified, so time to recover unless they elect to have another run.

[Nortons who]

Alcala runs tomorrow for Paul Nicholls at Musselburgh in the Hunter Chase. I'm not suggesting that I think Alcala is a strong contender for the Festival Hunters Chase but Paul Nicholls has raised a point in his quote below, which got me thinking.

For previous Foxhunters at Cheltenham, any amateur riders who had been claiming an allowance in races leading up to the Finale were not entitled to claim in the Foxhunters itself. So last year Angus Chelada was able to claim 7lbs for 2 races and then 5lbs in the race prior to Cheltenham but then rode off full weight in the Foxhunters.

What I'm failing to understand fully, is that Angus Chelada is currently classified as an 'Amateur' in the Racing Post (could be an error), which in theory means he should not be riding tomorrow. My assumption is that he has now turned pro and is receiving a 7lb claim but If so then why has his claim increased from the 5lb he received the last time he rode Alcala prior to the Foxhunters Chase. For info he also claimed 7lbs riding Shantou Flyer at Wincanton this week.

Finally getting to my point, has Paul Nicholls potentially found a way of getting a 7lb claimer to be able to ride horses in the Festival Hunters Chase this year, if amatuer jockeys are not permitted to ride by then? If so, is that going to be a significant advantage against the field?

Not sure exactly how to benefit from this ( if at all ) but thought I would raise it anyway.

Below is Paul Nicholls quote on Betfair, which prompted my point.


16:19 - Alcala

He won a Hunter Chase last season, fell when poised to add another at Ludlow and then finished finished ninth in the Foxhunters at Cheltenham so should be competitive in this despite carrying a penalty. Once again the 7lbs claim of Angus Cheleda is quite a bonus. He rode Alcala in all four starts last season and gets a good tune out of him. Good chance.

[Liammet]

Cat Tiger entered for a hunters at Ffos Las on Thursday

Only 7,Harry Cobden jocked up,Maxwell owned

Thought good enough to turn up in the Albert Bartlett

Could be interesting,25s quoted

[Nortons who]

Cat Tiger entered for a hunters at Ffos Las on Thursday

Only 7,Harry Cobden jocked up,Maxwell owned

Thought good enough to turn up in the Albert Bartlett

Could be interesting,25s quoted

Yes, Cat Tiger has been a long term plan (possibly one of many though) by David Maxwell for this.

Below is his quote from November 2019 after winning at Exeter.

David Maxwell was successful in the opening two miles five furlongs novices’ hurdle on his own Cat Tiger, trained by Paul Nicholls.

“He’ll stay novice hurdling this year and then he’ll win the Foxhunters in 2021!” remarked Maxwell who added: “He won a grade 3 in Auteuil so that rules him out of the Foxhunters this season. I actually fell off him in the way to the starting that race, just ten days after I bought him, and they were all laughing at me.”

[Nortons who]

For info, attached below is an article confirming that recent Hunter Chase runners from the P2P world are now heading straight to the Festival Hunters Chase.

Relates to Latenightpass, Highway Jewel and Porlock Bay and goes into some detail about how they have come out of the races and trainers thoughts.

Talented trio in fine form and heading for The Festival, Weatherbys Point-to-Point, Weatherbys Point-to-Point

https://www.pointtopoint.co.uk/news_articles/talented-trio-in-fine-form-and-heading-for-the-festival

[Lobos]

I'm definitely doing Latenightpass on the day. Could be another It Came to Pass 66/1 chance. I really fancy him for an upset. Win ratio is very good .

[Dandrew99]

Deleted... answered my own question

[Kevloaf]

For info, attached below is an article confirming that recent Hunter Chase runners from the P2P world are now heading straight to the Festival Hunters Chase.

Relates to Latenightpass, Highway Jewel and Porlock Bay and goes into some detail about how they have come out of the races and trainers thoughts.

Talented trio in fine form and heading for The Festival, Weatherbys Point-to-Point, Weatherbys Point-to-Point

https://www.pointtopoint.co.uk/news_articles/talented-trio-in-fine-form-and-heading-for-the-festival

Oh good, if it's not amateurs, Lorcan Williams - he'd have been my first choice

[Nortons who]

The recent article which mentioned Highway Jewel (url link in post # 321 got me thinking about how many Mares have actually run in the Cheltenham Foxhunters and how well have they done, in receipt of a 7lb Allowance.

I only went back in detail to 1987 but since then 32 Mares have taken part and there were 15 races without any in the starting line-up.

Of the 32 Mares who have run since 1987, just under 50% have either Pulled Up or Fallen.

Only 3 have placed (all seconds), with Dungay Lass coming the closest to winning the title, just losing by a head in 1991.

Probably the best Mare to run in this though was five year old Kerry Orchid sent off 11/2 Joint Favourite in 1993, losing out by 1.5 lengths to dual winner Double Silk. She then went on to win the Punchestown Hunters Chase.

The most recent 2nd place belonged to Mid Div and Creep in 2011.

Skimming through the list of winners back to 1946, it doesn't look as though a Mare has ever won the race but comparatively few have tried.

So can Highway Jewel do the business for the Mares this year ? History doesn't suggest it's very likely but apart from being a Mare, she does tick a lot of the key trends for this race.

The trends HJ meets:

# 27 of the last 32 winners have started in and come from a Point to Point background. HJ has.
# 15 / 16 have won over 3m. HJ has, all 5 of her P2P victories have been at 3m.
# 14 / 16 had a pre race RPR of 130+. HJ 's RPR is 131.
# 9 / 16 were aged 7 - 9. HJ is 7 and 7 year olds have won 10 of the last 73 renewals.
# Apart from dual winners, no winner since 2002 has previously run over the extended trip of 3m 2.5 f. HJ has only run 3m.

The trends she fails on:

# 25 / 35 Won LTO. HJ was second by 3/4 of a length.
# 26 / 27 Have won a race under rules. HJ hasn't but has only run once under rules, as above.
# 8 / 12 were in the top 4 the betting. HJ is a bit further down at around 16-1.

For info, I backed her at 37-1 before I knew the stats on Mares in this race! As mentioned, she has won all 5 P2Ps including beating Hazel Hill and the trainer clearly thinks highly enough of her to give this race a go.

Although I think Billaway might spoil the party, I hope Highway Jewel gives a good account of herself on 19th March and maybe its about time a Mare won this, especially also since the subsequent race on the card is the inaugural Mares Chase. Mares winning 2 successive chases at the Festival, now that would be a story.

[Lobos]

Great stats Norton's. I am going to back Latenightpass and was interested how many he met. He meets all bar the last which, come March, he may well have a tick against. Good to hear he came out of the race good and took a real blow so he should now be fitter still and spot on for March. The likely better ground sounds like it'll suit him more and, if Bridget Andrews takes up the offer of the ride, he won't be lacking in the saddle. He looks a lively 'outsider'.

[Craigy14]

Great stats Norton's. I am going to back Latenightpass and was interested how many he met. He meets all bar the last which, come March, he may well have a tick against. Good to hear he came out of the race good and took a real blow so he should now be fitter still and spot on for March. The likely better ground sounds like it'll suit him more and, if Bridget Andrews takes up the offer of the ride, he won't be lacking in the saddle. He looks a lively 'outsider'.

Agree 100% Lobos, he was the one I took from the race at Warwick.

Bookies are being very cautious, post race I couldn’t find a price but just seen 365 were 20/1.

[Eggs]

....Hunter Chase 3.15 Catt today.

Heard Luke Harvey putting up Porlock Bay yesterday (20-1 NRNB). Trained by Will Biddick, I think it needs another run to qualify.

[charlie]

The Worlds End entered up at Haycock on Saturday. Hopefully operation qualify fully underway.

[Nortons who]

....Hunter Chase 3.15 Catt today.

Heard Luke Harvey putting up Porlock Bay yesterday (20-1 NRNB). Trained by Will Biddick, I think it needs another run to qualify.

Porlock Bay has already qualified (second place LTO and P2P win in November) and heading straight there, as per recent article posted last week (extract copied below for ease of reference).

Biddick said of Porlock Bay, who finished runner-up to the Paul Nicholls-trained Sametegal at Wincanton: “We walked him to the river the day after his run and he marched out as if he’d won the race. He obviously stays, and the race fell just right because we didn’t want to run too close to Cheltenham.

“I know Wincanton isn’t undulating like Cheltenham, but he stayed three miles and a furlong on heavy ground, and ran right through the line. He’s got that bit of class and the pace for races over two and a half miles, and he’s not a slow three miler. If he had finished fourth and qualified for Cheltenham, but didn’t look class enough, he wouldn’t be going. There’s no point making up the numbers and ruining your chance of winning other races.”
Will Biddick riding Porlock Bay to victory at Kimble in November (image: Neale Blackburn)



Biddick rode Porlock Bay when he won at Kimble in November (pictured above), but he is sanguine on the prospects of missing out at Cheltenham. He said: “It’s a completely different feeling being the trainer. I don’t get nervous when riding, and if something goes wrong you hand the horse back and get ready for the next ride, but when I’m the trainer I pace around like a jack in the box.

“Lorcan [Williams] did a good job and will get the ride if he wants it, and the owner is happy, so we’re heading to Cheltenham.”