Cheltenham 2020 Analysis - What did I learn, with 2021 in mind

[Hardy Eustace]

I'd usually steer away from anything less than 16/1 as an each way bet.

Not a blanket rule, as if I'm confident on the target and the lack of depth in a race I'd consider it.



If I identify a race may have a lack of DEPTH (as in horses I feel actually have a chance of winning are 3 or less) then I'd consider each way on some shorter prices....

but as with everything it's case-by-case.


The Arkle and the Marsh chase I'd consider each way bets on a horse if they were a shorter price and I knew the target... no specific examples yet but I hope that answers your question?

It does indeed, thank you. As a rule of thumb I tend to do win only at 20s or less (unless I can get a 1/4 odds) so was good to hear your approach.

[Kevloaf]

Hi Kev -

Great read and some huge insights. With regard getting barred from a cash out facility, it’s easy enough to open a new account in a close friends name , buy them a create of beer or something , you’ll usually get back up and running on the same day!

where would one find those podcasts and what is FFP Short for ?

You have a very sustainable ante poste approach but referring to scoobies Diary, he just had less selections but this year seemed to get them all right (sometimes it it just goes that way, however not so much for me ! ) . After just taking a look it almost looks like theyeve been put in the diary after they crossed the line in first place- incredible, now I know why he was being asked after! Here to congratulate you on your diary but a little more “risk” could be the answer for the next jump on ROI — or maybe it won’t - but that’s gambling eh!

I do think the go hard or go home approach (within reason) could help frog leap you. Or maybe you could look at the multiples In the light of “you’re due a winner “ and sometimes they returns 1000pts if “the one” lands ...

After 10 years of steady profit you can forgive yourself for aiming for the stars one year I think , especially if you are routing a few horses, just run with a few, Sod it! For me I wouldn’t even care loosing money on a certain few horses , as long as they get to the festival heathy and I get to cheer them on that’s enough ... and of course I hope they can get up to win but the losing isn’t so important , ultimately you bet what you afford to lose so it’s all kind of relitice.


I’m routing for you to go big or break even , that’s my suggestion anyway !

Thanks 7B.

Opening up accounts in friends names is something I've already utilised on more than one occasion over the years. I'm down to the very last few. Lost all 4 of my Sky ones during this year . As with most things that are an edge, over time, they get exploited and therefore ended!

FFP was short for Final Furlong Podacst.


The idea of 'gambling' isn't actually one I like. At this stage, with the record I have behind me it's easy to say I could go big or go home, but as we got closer to the festival I'd feel I need to defend my unbeaten record a little bit. A losing year I feel would hit me pretty hard given how much time I invest?
Have never really thought about that before. Definitely is on my mind though now

[Lobos]

Everybody needs to be ready to evolve the moment you lose access to a bet365 account, it really is a game changer when you get used to betting with a safety net of cash out and suddenly it’s gone.

I've never had an online account so plenty of years of practice!

[Kevloaf]

Great stuff Kev.

Loved the very informative write-up and congratulations on a terrific Festival.

Regarding section 2B Will your approach change in 2021: sub-section C Go big or go home...I'm going to shamelessly name-drop and relate a few wise words that have lodged in my brain for many years.

Martin Pipe once told me: "I've only ever known 3 absolute certainties in racing - and two of those got beaten."

On another occasion - regarding accumulators - Victor Chandler said: "The punters bookies fear most bet low stakes to win big in singles."

Pipe was basically saying don't put all your eggs in one basket and Chandler was saying they are afraid of punters who can sting them by making just one hit. Imagine the cops feel the same about bank robbers who retire after one job!

I usually only bet one horse per race at Cheltenham - occasionally two - and take the view that if you back enough top quality horses at value prices over the four days enough of them will win/place to make a profit.

But I operate on a much smaller scale than you.

Interested to see how well you've done backing each way. I've tended to use each way as a sort of safety net to limit losses but you are turning the placed horses into a significant profit. Excellent stuff.

Regarding race videos: I think they are the most important weapon in a punter's armoury. Nothing beats being able to visually watch practically every race in the career of a horse you fancy to see if it's as good as the written form, price, going, race conditions, trainer, jockey etc may indicate. It's also a fun part of working out the Festival crossword puzzle which has 28 different solutions every March.

Thanks NC200, very kind.

Like the quotes
The reality is, the likelihood that what I consider certainties all aligning is going to be pretty tough. I feel Envoi Allen is a horse I can potentially work around though. It does mean I'm almost trying to shoe-horn other strong opinions in though and over the last few years my 'strong opinions' aren't as strong as they were (been wrong too often I suppose and am getting more mellow)? Some people might be reading that thinking I'm very strongly opinionated which is fair perhaps but not for me to say haha.



Glad you agree regarding the Race Videos... that was my biggest take-out from last year and I think it paid off. I particularly enjoyed watching back and reviewing last years festival day-by-day as a bit of an 'event'. It helped me get in the mind set and I think I spooted some things and clarified some others that I'd perhaps forget or "remembered differently".

[Kevloaf]

New to the forum but that's an amazing read for a boring old Wednesday night! Fair play, and I look forward to seeing your bets in the coming season.

FAO nortonscoin, completely agree with the comment re video replays - no amount of time/speed figures or such can beat your own instinct and eye whilst watching back videos and making notes.

Thanks OTL.

Superb work Kev.

Love the section on forecasts and tricasts. I've started putting some cash aside for Totepool bets next year - an opportunity for huge returns from a relatively small outlay.

Yes, we probably should set up a dedicated thread to discuss these types of bets and strategies as they'll get lost in here.

Enough to think about with the return of racing though so maybe deeper in to the season?

[Another Value Loser]

Podcasts – I haven’t listened to any at all since the festival. Have there been any worthwhile review ones one listen to? My starting point used to be the FFP but I’m in no hurry to listen to that at the moment. Obviously I’ll listen to “Anythey’reoff” when I am back in to it, but other suggestions are welcome.

I don't think I've come across many worthwhile review podcasts, at least none that I can remember. Which is a bit odd really considering the racing industry seems to have been pumping out all sorts of varied content during the COVID downtime.

I do feel there is room in racing for a consistent, informative podcast to take over.

On the subject of podcasts, I'll add some racing podcasts I have enjoyed (both series and individual episodes) if there is an existing podcast thread, and create a new thread if not.

Some useful individual episodes out there such as Simon Rowlands discussing how he uses sectional times when approaching a race.

[Kevloaf]

Kev - Superb write up, thanks for putting in the time to put it together. Lots of food for thought.

On the subject of multiples - When I first started taking betting seriously, the general was advice was to avoid multiples and just stick to singles. While this is good advice in general (especially for what seems to be a great number of punters who place their 20-team accas every Saturday) I don't feel it is a rule that should be universally followed.

I love reading/listening to pieces/advice from successful bettors and try to absorb as much advice as possible. One piece of advice that frequently popped up was multiples aren't necessarily a waste of time, as long as they are utilised sensibly.

Reason being is when you place a 20-team acca, it is extremely unlikely you are backing 20 "value" prices (especially betting into mature markets, close to kickoff) therefore, you are just multiplying the bookies edge and creating a -EV bet.

However, when dealing with some of the antepost selections, there are many instances where you are backing a much greater price than the horses' starting price and therefore combining these selections multiplies your edge, rather than the bookies' edge. Of course, antepost bets have a significant risk of not running due to injury/change of target and this needs to be factored in when calcualting the stake size.

Pretty much all of my antepost multiples are doubles or trixies, with the very occasional yankee but nothing larger. An example stake size of a double I placed recently was 1/25 of the stake I would put on a single win bet once NRNB is released/on the day of race. I also use free bets on multiples where possible, however this is becoming increasingly difficult with account restrictions and bookies seemingly tightening their belts with these concessions over the past few years.

To summarise, I do think multiples have their place in antepost betting, it is just essential that discipline is maintained when considering the stake size and number of selections in your multiple bets.

Thanks AVL (like that name by the way).

I've got very little to add to your comments but could have written that myself, it's pretty much exactly how I feel and treat them too. (Try to anyway)

The forecast/tricast talk is also another fascinating angle. I have considered attempting them properly for some of the big festivals in the past however often seem to back the losing combinations and not staking races where I would have landed the forecast/tricast.

Will try and put a small pot of money aside for next year, consider it "lost money" and try and stake for all of the handicaps and see how I get on. Provided I don't get too carried away with the Guinness and forget, of course...

I certainly won't 'forget' to do any again after this years lessons. I missed out on two nice pick ups from 'user-error'.

I absolutely love the handicaps now, probably more than any other part and this is my holy grail now ... to Tricast all 10 (not in 1 year...)

[Quevega]

Thanks OTL.



Yes, we probably should set up a dedicated thread to discuss these types of bets and strategies as they'll get lost in here.

Enough to think about with the return of racing though so maybe deeper in to the season?

Great work Kevin.

On the subject of multiples.
Related doubles are a definite good idea. Preferably with NRNB.
And Multiple bets like trixies & yankees are worth doing for the life changing chance - But miles better with NRNB I reckon.

And finally, the placepot dividend at cheltenham is sometimes fantastic value.

A Forum placepot would be worth a pop next year, at least for the Tuesday & Wednesday as we'd get the decs in early enough before it all kicks off.

[ComplyOrDie]

A Forum placepot would be worth a pop next year, at least for the Tuesday & Wednesday as we'd get the decs in early enough before it all kicks off.

I like the idea of this Q.

Maybe you can get the ball rolling nearer the time?

[Kevloaf]

Yeah that is a good idea Q, well volunteered. You can own that.


Yeah I like the related angle a lot, I like all the ones I've posted in that thread already quite a bit (not surprising haha).

[Faugheen_Machine]

As for 6 figure multi’s that payment is nowhere near big enough for FM...

Got to aim high Ista!

[EnvoyAllen]

Fantastic effort Kev. Well done for sharing your views and thoughts. I feel your passion and it’s my sporting highlight of the year, together with a week’s camping at Wimbledon for the tennis every year. I enjoyed 3 brilliant days at Cheltenham this year, and am already planning for next year. I’m just hoping my (very) early investment in Envoi Allen & Shishkin pays for next year and beyond........

[BigChaang]

Year on year I tend to do more and more multiples. I accept that I'll have long losing runs with them, and some years the returns won't cover the outlay, but it's my only method of winning a life changing amount.

The way I view it is that a winning single will only pay for my next few bets. A winning multiple may mean I'll never have to work again (that's the dream).

This is how i see it too . , this year , i landed one multi that paid really well ,.
if nothing else it covered the losing ones , all for a few quid..
and , you have to think you might land the Big one one day !. .

[Joleg]

Phenomenal work Kev

I was beginning to think that we weren't going to get the write up / analysis this year!

Some very interesting stuff on there. Personally i only used to back 1 or 2 horses per race but this year went a bit more gung-ho and thankfully it paid off and some. Like you i have records of the last few years and this year was my biggest ROI.
Historically i haven't done well with multiples at the festival fortunately (thanks in the main to Champ and Min) they were very profitable. Not sure if my approach will change much this year, if at all, but i won't be increasing monetary outlay on multiples.

Thanks again for the read

[Kevloaf]

Phenomenal work Kev

I was beginning to think that we weren't going to get the write up / analysis this year!

Some very interesting stuff on there. Personally i only used to back 1 or 2 horses per race but this year went a bit more gung-ho and thankfully it paid off and some. Like you i have records of the last few years and this year was my biggest ROI.
Historically i haven't done well with multiples at the festival fortunately (thanks in the main to Champ and Min) they were very profitable. Not sure if my approach will change much this year, if at all, but i won't be increasing monetary outlay on multiples.

Thanks again for the read

Thanks Joleg, and the Eurovision bit is true