Cheltenham 2020 Analysis - What did I learn, with 2021 in mind

[7barrows]

Hi Kev -

Great read and some huge insights. With regard getting barred from a cash out facility, it’s easy enough to open a new account in a close friends name , buy them a create of beer or something , you’ll usually get back up and running on the same day!

where would one find those podcasts and what is FFP Short for ?

You have a very sustainable ante poste approach but referring to scoobies Diary, he just had less selections but this year seemed to get them all right (sometimes it it just goes that way, however not so much for me ! ) . After just taking a look it almost looks like theyeve been put in the diary after they crossed the line in first place- incredible, now I know why he was being asked after! Here to congratulate you on your diary but a little more “risk” could be the answer for the next jump on ROI — or maybe it won’t - but that’s gambling eh!

I do think the go hard or go home approach (within reason) could help frog leap you. Or maybe you could look at the multiples In the light of “you’re due a winner “ and sometimes they returns 1000pts if “the one” lands ...

After 10 years of steady profit you can forgive yourself for aiming for the stars one year I think , especially if you are routing a few horses, just run with a few, Sod it! For me I wouldn’t even care loosing money on a certain few horses , as long as they get to the festival heathy and I get to cheer them on that’s enough ... and of course I hope they can get up to win but the losing isn’t so important , ultimately you bet what you afford to lose so it’s all kind of relitice.


I’m routing for you to go big or break even , that’s my suggestion anyway !

[nortonscoin200]

Great stuff Kev.

Loved the very informative write-up and congratulations on a terrific Festival.

Regarding section 2B Will your approach change in 2021: sub-section C Go big or go home...here are a few wise words that have lodged in my brain for many years.

Martin Pipe said: "I've only ever known 3 absolute certainties in racing - and two of those got beaten."

Regarding accumulators, Victor Chandler said: "The punters bookies fear most bet low stakes to win big in singles."

Pipe was basically saying don't put all your eggs in one basket and Chandler was saying they are afraid of punters who can sting them by making just one hit. Imagine the cops feel the same about bank robbers who retire after one job!

I usually only bet one horse per race at Cheltenham - occasionally two - and take the view that if you back enough top quality horses at value prices over the four days enough of them will win/place to make a profit.

But I operate on a much smaller scale than you.

Interested to see how well you've done backing each way. I've tended to use each way as a sort of safety net to limit losses but you are turning the placed horses into a significant profit. Excellent stuff.

Regarding race videos: I think they are the most important weapon in a punter's armoury. Nothing beats being able to visually watch practically every race in the career of a horse you fancy to see if it's as good as the written form, price, going, race conditions, trainer, jockey etc may indicate. It's also a fun part of working out the Festival crossword puzzle which has 28 different solutions every March.

[OverTheLast]

New to the forum but that's an amazing read for a boring old Wednesday night! Fair play, and I look forward to seeing your bets in the coming season.

FAO nortonscoin, completely agree with the comment re video replays - no amount of time/speed figures or such can beat your own instinct and eye whilst watching back videos and making notes.

[Faugheen_Machine]

Superb work Kev.

Love the section on forecasts and tricasts. I've started putting some cash aside for Totepool bets next year - an opportunity for huge returns from a relatively small outlay.

[SharpHat]

I keep a spreadsheet myself of all antepost bets so i can do analysis like this, the standout for me was this stat -

Day 1 singles = +90pts
Day 2 singles = +150pts
Day 3 singles = +110pts
Day 4 singles = +85pts
Multiples = -250pts

Its fair to say ill be doing significantly less multiples this year

[Istabraq]

I keep a spreadsheet myself of all antepost bets so i can do analysis like this, the standout for me was this stat -

Day 1 singles = +90pts
Day 2 singles = +150pts
Day 3 singles = +110pts
Day 4 singles = +85pts
Multiples = -250pts

Its fair to say ill be doing significantly less multiples this year

Feel free to put up your review A9...

[Faugheen_Machine]

I keep a spreadsheet myself of all antepost bets so i can do analysis like this, the standout for me was this stat -

Day 1 singles = +90pts
Day 2 singles = +150pts
Day 3 singles = +110pts
Day 4 singles = +85pts
Multiples = -250pts

Its fair to say ill be doing significantly less multiples this year

Year on year I tend to do more and more multiples. I accept that I'll have long losing runs with them, and some years the returns won't cover the outlay, but it's my only method of winning a life changing amount.

The way I view it is that a winning single will only pay for my next few bets. A winning multiple may mean I'll never have to work again (that's the dream).

[ComplyOrDie]

Year on year I tend to do more and more multiples. I accept that I'll have long losing runs with them, and some years the returns won't cover the outlay, but it's my only method of winning a life changing amount.

The way I view it is that a winning single will only pay for my next few bets. A winning multiple may mean I'll never have to work again (that's the dream).

I done a whole lot less last season and had my best overall % return, yet already I have got stuck in to plenty for next season

I've taken your last paragraph, as to how I bet this season. The dream has to be on, IMO. Can still have a very good week along the way if they don't happen.

[Hardy Eustace]

Congratulations on your first house and on your success at this years fez. Top work. If you keep improving at this rate you'll be able to buy a second house with next years winnings!!

[Lobos]

I keep a spreadsheet myself of all antepost bets so i can do analysis like this, the standout for me was this stat -

Day 1 singles = +90pts
Day 2 singles = +150pts
Day 3 singles = +110pts
Day 4 singles = +85pts
Multiples = -250pts

Its fair to say ill be doing significantly less multiples this year

Made a decision this year to not do any multiples AP. Feel it backfired somewhat as although I saved on multiples involving 3 horses and above I reckon I could have had at least a couple of big doubles in ( The one that I regret most is Imperial Aura/Simply The Bets). For next year I am doing multiples but doubles only.

[Kautostar]

Year on year I tend to do more and more multiples. I accept that I'll have long losing runs with them, and some years the returns won't cover the outlay, but it's my only method of winning a life changing amount.

The way I view it is that a winning single will only pay for my next few bets. A winning multiple may mean I'll never have to work again (that's the dream).

That’s the way I view it too an excellent way of putting it

[Another Value Loser]

Kev - Superb write up, thanks for putting in the time to put it together. Lots of food for thought.

On the subject of multiples - When I first started taking betting seriously, the general was advice was to avoid multiples and just stick to singles. While this is good advice in general (especially for what seems to be a great number of punters who place their 20-team accas every Saturday) I don't feel it is a rule that should be universally followed.

I love reading/listening to pieces/advice from successful bettors and try to absorb as much advice as possible. One piece of advice that frequently popped up was multiples aren't necessarily a waste of time, as long as they are utilised sensibly.

Reason being is when you place a 20-team acca, it is extremely unlikely you are backing 20 "value" prices (especially betting into mature markets, close to kickoff) therefore, you are just multiplying the bookies edge and creating a -EV bet.

However, when dealing with some of the antepost selections, there are many instances where you are backing a much greater price than the horses' starting price and therefore combining these selections multiplies your edge, rather than the bookies' edge. Of course, antepost bets have a significant risk of not running due to injury/change of target and this needs to be factored in when calcualting the stake size.

Pretty much all of my antepost multiples are doubles or trixies, with the very occasional yankee but nothing larger. An example stake size of a double I placed recently was 1/25 of the stake I would put on a single win bet once NRNB is released/on the day of race. I also use free bets on multiples where possible, however this is becoming increasingly difficult with account restrictions and bookies seemingly tightening their belts with these concessions over the past few years.

To summarise, I do think multiples have their place in antepost betting, it is just essential that discipline is maintained when considering the stake size and number of selections in your multiple bets.

[Another Value Loser]

The forecast/tricast talk is also another fascinating angle. I have considered attempting them properly for some of the big festivals in the past however often seem to back the losing combinations and not staking races where I would have landed the forecast/tricast.

Will try and put a small pot of money aside for next year, consider it "lost money" and try and stake for all of the handicaps and see how I get on. Provided I don't get too carried away with the Guinness and forget, of course...

[Lobos]

The forecast/tricast talk is also another fascinating angle. I have considered attempting them properly for some of the big festivals in the past however often seem to back the losing combinations and not staking races where I would have landed the forecast/tricast.

Will try and put a small pot of money aside for next year, consider it "lost money" and try and stake for all of the handicaps and see how I get on. Provided I don't get too carried away with the Guinness and forget, of course...

The only Tricast we wrote out was in the NHC. Wanted to combine horses ridden by all the top amateurs but we bottled out as it was around £60. What an error !

[Another Value Loser]

The only Tricast we wrote out was in the NHC. Wanted to combine horses ridden by all the top amateurs but we bottled out as it was around £60. What an error !

Always the way aha. Crazy how many lines you can end up with for tricast bets when you start including "he's got a chance" or "I don't want to leave him uncovered".