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Cheltenham 2020 Analysis - What did I learn, with 2021 in mind

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  • Cheltenham 2020 Analysis - What did I learn, with 2021 in mind

    For anyone new, this will be a long post. For anyone that isn't new, I'm sorry.





    It will contain unavoidable after-timing, contradictions, flip-flops, arrogance and potentially digs at people that I clashed with over the season.


    On a serious note, this thread is for me to analyse my own 2020 festival and this process of writing it down helps me understand what has worked, but more importantly what I can do to improve.

    I very much welcome comments and questions at the end as it’ll take me ages to write and I don’t get paid If you do, just refer to the 'question number' rather than quoting the whole posts though as they'll be quite big.


    The 2018 and 2019 versions are here, although no real reason for anyone to read them, I'm mainly just showing off that I can use hyperlinks.


    Using the same questions that good old jono posted back in 2017 then:

    1. How did you get on?
    2a. Will you all be continuing with ante post next year? / 2b. Will your approach change for 2019?
    3. How did the yankees/multiples/ lucky 15's/placepots etc do for all?
    4. What advice or lessons can be learnt from this year (ante post and/or on the day)
    5. Your biggest mistakes / The races/horses you got wrong
    6. Other points

  • #2
    1. How did you get on?

    The cold, hard facts for Cheltenham 2020:

    Total Stake: 1500 points
    Total Return: 2189.7 points
    Total Profit: (+689.7 pts) – Return On Investment 45.62%

    To give that a little bit of context - my previous festival records:

    Ante Post record:

    2020 - +689 pts (ROI 45.62%) - from 1500 pts staked
    2019 - +237 pts (ROI 10.91%) - from 2173 pts staked
    2018 - +351 pts (ROI 26.48%) - from 1326 pts staked
    2017 - +202 pts (ROI 19.59%) - from 1033 pts staked
    2016 - +147 pts (ROI 37.70%) - from 391 pts staked
    2015 - +84 pts (ROI 50.08%) - from 165 pts staked
    2014 - +41 pts (ROI 27.79%) - from 150 pts staked
    2013 - +8 pts (ROI 3.93%) - from 209 pts staked
    2012 - +20 pts (ROI 28.37%) - from 70 pts staked
    2011 - +8 pts (ROI 15.84%) - from 50 pts staked
    I’m delighted. Absolutely delighted. I’m really proud of my festival results this year. It was the most profit I’ve had and is a stark contrast to how I felt last year. Last year (as you can see in the table above) was the first time in 6 years that I hadn’t improved on the previous year. I still made a profit but last year I said I “felt quite flat about it since it all finished”. That made me do a bit of a reset and tweak my approach. I felt I had become a little too rash and not as selective as I should have been. More on that later though. (God I bet you're excited, although I bet your eyes have already moved down to the graph).

    The curve is certainly going in the right direction and I’m so pleased to be back on track.



    This year, the ROI was amazing, it’s the equivalent of a 4/9 shot. Just weighing up whether I’d prefer to just have 1500 points on a 4/9 shot during the week and be done with it. Of course I wouldn’t. The enjoyment per day is incredible on balance through the year.

    The total stake was down on the previous year. That was a conscious decision and was impacted by buying our first house so my ‘betting bank’ was heavily depleted. I still managed to get 1500 points on, but this did include a loan of 300 points from a very good friend of mine after the DRF, as well as some good results over the flat and jumps seasons. That can’t be relied upon however I’m not anticipating buying a house again anytime soon so cash flow shouldn’t be an issue next season. I am not aiming to increase the total stake. If anything I want the total stake capped at 1500 points and the ROI to increase is the priority.

    I know I wasn’t alone though in having a really good week, I know FM had a brilliant week too which is fantastic, and it could have been SO MUCH BETTER. Whilst taking about the ROI though it’s impossible not to doff the cap to scooby who had a 298% ROI which is just fucking stupid really.

    What the success of those two behemoths highlights though, is that after all the patting myself on the back, I can certainly still improve!



    So how did it go this year – in a bit more detail.

    In terms of winners backed in a ‘single’ I had 19/28 – which is the same as last year and I was disappointed with it then. The difference this year was in the 9 races I didn’t have the winner backed as a single I had 6 winners backed in some form of multiple bringing the total to 25/28 winners.

    The ones that got away were the Foxhunters, Stayers Hurdle and the Pertemps. I have no problem in missing the Foxhunter winner. Not a race I’d focus on ante post personally, I have a little poke when some gems come up on here but I’m not going to spend time getting into the division for the sake of one race. The Stayers Hurdle I feel I can justify, as I was pretty strong on Paisley Park and was happy to take that on the chin. I also had the excellent value bet on Emitom without that didn’t pay off but when I had such great value, any other bets just felt like I was losing my edge. The Pertemps was a case of being too slow. The case was obvious, I was too slow and considered SDB too short at every point from then on. I was also absolutely smitten with The Storyteller who was runner up. It does hurt a bit but I think all three of those are ones I can live with and there aren’t too many lessons to be learnt.

    Last year I broke it down and only had 11/28 winners backed ante post, the other 8 were backed “on the day” (or day of race markets etc). This year was healthier though with 17 winners backed ante post. They were (with prices)

    Epatante 44/1, Honeysuckle 4/1, Imperial Aura 18/1, Ravenhill 25/1, Envoi Allen 12/1, Champ 10/1, Politilogue 20/1, Easysland 20/1, Aramax 13/1, Ferny Hollow 25/1 (free bet only), Samcro 16/1 and 17/2, Min 19/1 and 8/1, Simply The Betts 71/1 double, Concertista 33/1, Milan Native 20/1, Burning Victory 40/1, Saint Roi 27/1 and 22/1,

    All of the above were backed before March. A few proper gems in there that I can take some credit for, a larger number are due to the great work on the forum and a few suspect ones. Aramax at 13/1 and Honeysuckle at 4/1 are two I’m scratching my head at.

    These 8 are ones I backed on ‘day of race’ markets taking the total to 25 winners from the 28 races.

    Shishkin, Put The Kettle On, The Conditional, Dame De Compagnie, Monkfish, Al Boum Photo, Chosen Mate, Indefigatable.

    The week started off horribly for me ‘ante post’, as the first three winners were ones I hadn’t backed! Technically I had backed Shishkin and cashed it out before forgetting to add it again which was just a very school boy error and I got punished in quite unfair fashion, as the horse I fancied the most was the one he got up to beat in Abacadabras. I was tempted to get Shishkin covered right up until the day and was pretty strong until he started drifting to almost double what he’d been the day before. I did back him then and having 40/1 and 33/1 about the 3rd and 2nd meant I did kick off with a profit of 35 pts from the Supreme, which is a good start but somewhat lucky. Without the drift on Shishkin I’d have been down overall for it, not by much, but still down.

    Next up Put The Kettle On. Backed her on the Monday, 9th March. This was a case of me playing safe wit the Arkle and making a late (albeit calculated) decision to finally go-green in the race. Full credit to the forum for being able to do that in this race. Notebook put up at 50/1, Cash Back at 33/1 and Fakir D’Oudaries at 20/1 set it up so nicely.

    The Conditional was the 3rd one and is pretty much exactly the same as the situation with Sire Du Berlais that I’ve already mentioned. The case was obvious that he was well handicapped but I was quite happy going to war with what I had. I had a couple of “free bets” that’d been credited on him as a bit of a saver but the absolute gem here was the 25/1 special for him and Big River to place. Big River was one I’d backed anyway but him snatching 5th place meant that despite no ante post winner in the first three races I was off to an absolute flyer.

    Ante post selections kicked in then… a personal favourite being Epatante at 40/1 that I’d highlighted after the money was streaming in for her but the “to win the Christmas Hurdle and Champion Hurdle” price hadn’t moved. She overtook Fusil Raffles in the betting on the day yet that price remained. That’s a massive angle that I’ll look to exploit going forward. It’ll be quite rare that horses flip flop quite so dramatically, but definitely worth making a mental note about.

    The Mares Hurdle was disappointing, the 4/1 for Honeysuckle was very much a ‘saver’ as Benie Des Dieux had turned into a “key horse” for the week. She would have rolled onto various bets and at this point I do remember thinking I may struggle to better some previous years. It goes to highlight that really focussing on ‘bankers’ may not be the best idea… more on that later I’m sure!

    I’ve delve into the handicaps in more detail in section 3 as I had some fun with forecasts and tricasts.

    2 pts e/w on Ravenhill at 25/1 was a nice way to round off Day 1. It made it my best ever day 1 in fact. It was (as it often is) a case of what could have been….


    Day 2 I was there, really enjoyed it and it got off to a bang with Envoi Allen putting in a lovely performance up from the bend where he had me panicking to putting me at ease. I actually didn’t win as much as I’d have liked from Envoi Allen in the end. He was the one of the ‘big 4’ that I fancied the least, but as Abacadabras didn’t quite hold on, and Benie Des Dieux was beaten, it ended up meaning EA was a nice winner, and nothing more.

    I felt sick during the RSA. I kept my personal thoughts out of all my analysis of the races and tried to be as unbiased as possible but fucking hell I was livid about this. My biggest winners, Allaho and Minella Indo… both worth almost 100 pts each whichever won. At the last I was genuinely congratulating myself on how fucking good I am at this ante post stuff. Champ was a horse I was pretty much forced into backing. I remember talking to Scooby about him pre season and being bemused that he thought 10/1 was a good price about him. I had 2 pts at 10/1 after some encouragement and as the season progressed wasn’t in any rush at all to back him to be a bigger winner. He essentially was just a ‘saver’ that covered my stake… my profit came from the 2nd and 3rd placing and I still feel gutted about it now. An absolutely incredible race to watch, and one that I’ll use to make people laugh as I pause the video at the final fence and tell people how much I’d have won if either of the first two win. Nobody likes hearing about peoples wins deep down do they.

    Champ had taken the wind out of me a bit, then Dame De Compagnie piles on some misery as she’s one of the least significant “winners” I had all week. In fact I’m sure she was the least significant, as she was only in a low stake multiple that only partially connected (ironically enough with Champ).

    Didn’t feel any better at all that day to be honest, with the QMCC being a damp squib despite “the book” paying dividends. Obviously Defi was a much more significant winner. Had a lovely double with Envoi Allen that didn’t land there too. Then Tiger Roll didn’t win and I’d backed him on course in a bit of a whim for more than I would have done had I been at home!

    The it’s the boodles which although I had the winner isn’t a race I can even remember despite watching it back a week ago.

    Then it’s the worst and most insignificant race of the week, the bumper, and bloomin’ Ferny Hollow gets his act together. I backed and cashed him out twice during the season. Fortunately made a decision to back him with free bets just in case and it’s the first time I have EVER had a return from the Bumper. Hooray. Definitely not my best ever Day 2 though, but memorable for a lot of reasons.


    Day 3, first race was just insane. I knew FM was routing for Samcro, and although I’d actually cashed for profit one of the bets he was still a nice winner. I probably should have left him but I had gone pretty luke-warm on the race in general and started just willing Faugheen on in the build up. Ended up making a book in the race because I had no strong opinion.

    The Pertemps I’ve covered already as one of the races I didn’t have the winner but that made the next race even sweeter. Min winning the Ryanair was a superb moment. He didn’t win it as well as I’d hoped or expected, but he did win it, and there were a lot of people who had been wrong about the horse and couldn’t have him at all. The class angle was one I was pretty strong on and I can’t think of anybody that was more of a Min cheerleader all through the season so it was particularly sweet.

    Brought back down to earth 40 minutes later when Paisley Park flopped though. He was a (if not THE) key horse for the week. I haven’t actually added up how much I’d have won if he had won, I didn’t have him in a single but he’d made up into a significant part of my ante post. Benie Des Dieux and/or Tiger Roll not winning definitely meant he wasn’t as important as I was anticipating, but he was rubbish and it was a rubbish race to watch too as he never gave any moment for excitement.

    Back on a high though as Imperial Aura had set up Simply The Betts to land a delicious related double and that was a very enjoyable race to watch, having Happy Diva as my main selection for the race too ante post. I did get suckered in to Death Duty and backed him 2.25 pts e/w at 13/2 which was a bad bet in hindsight.


    Had the 1-2 both backed at 33/1 ante post in the Mares Novice Hurdle. Back Willie Mullins horses ante post, who’d have thunk it! Then ended the day with the 1-2-3 backed ante post in the Kim Muir. I was a little bit disappointed at the order they finished as I’d really gone to town on Plan Of Attack at 25/1. He’d have been my biggest single winner of the week I think (the place money was almost as much as I got for Milan Native winning).

    On to the Friday. A lovely ante post selection at 40/1 in Burning Victory who was impressive. I feel like I’d gone quite heavily onto Goshen but just looking back I hadn’t. I had a Trixie with Al Boum Photo, as well as a Trixie with Min that both would have landed as doubles but that unseat after the last wasn’t anywhere near as bad as it will have been for others, especially as the winner waltzed in at 40/1!

    The County Hurdle was brilliant. Saint Roi was one I’d been put on to from the November any race at 25/1 and 22/1 and that particular market paid dividends there. Couldn’t have predicted it but it became clear as a JP horse it was a possibility and the horse was pretty special IMO as I’ve bleated on about already in other pages on here.

    The next part is where some serious after timing comes in, as I’m pretty sure Monkfish and Al Boum Photo make no appearances at all in my ante post diary. On Friday 13th, Al Boum Photo managed to get into 5 bets on the Friday for me and 3 of them included Monkfish. I had a double with them, and the Trixie with Billaway.

    Lucky, absolutely. I’m a short head away from Al Boum not being a profitable Gold Cup winner. That said, Santini was a decent winner for me and that was a short distance too! I hadn’t planned to back Monkfish as such, but the combination of those all being Mullins’ horses meant it wasn’t a tough ‘saver’ kind of double and Trixie to have. I can’t say I planned it as I clearly didn’t, but having other horses covered (like Latest Exhibition, Fury Road and Thyme Hill ALL at 16/1+ does give you a bit of wiggle room to get lucky)

    Foxhunters was disappointing as even though Billaway was nowhere near my ante post thoughts, by the time we got to this race he was a very profitable horse as Monkfish and Al Boum had won, which made it even more annoying when a rag beat him…. Only to find that rag had beat him last time they met. Can’t be too hard on myself though there!

    Grand Annual was decent enough, had 5 backed and they came 1-3-4-0-P….and then we come to the horse I’ve tried not to think about.

    Had Column Of Fire won, he’d have been my best single winner of the week. In fact it’d have been the biggest return I’d ever had from any single. 40/1, 25/1 and 20/1. I know everybody was on, but I did make the case for him and put him up in November and to come so close is heart-breaking. I’m convinced he’d have won. Who mentioned ‘a horse first’ is a bit tedious at times on here, especially when it’s a novice hurdler or P2P recruit that there is no real skill involved in “tipping it up” and I do feel a bit of a twat for patting myself on the back for it, but it was good

    Having gone through all that, it just backs up what I said at the end of the cold hard facts…. There is just so much room for improvement! The dream is that one year everything does just click at the same time… leading me nicely on to the next question.
    Last edited by Kevloaf; 27 May 2020, 09:39 PM.

    Comment


    • #3
      2a. Will you all be continuing with ante post next year?



      Umm, yes. I do think 2021 will be one of THE hardest years though. The lack of racing means there is more of a focus on the ante post prices and things are being cut already that usually wouldn’t even get looked at.


      More importantly though, we had racing at all to confirm or test the form of the 2020 festival or season. Whilst as a general rule I don’t put a gigantic amount of weight on the Aintree, Fairyhouse and Punchestown Festivals it’s impossible to deny that it is better to have it there than not at all.


      Comment


      • #4
        2b. Will your approach change for 2021?



        I feel like I might break the word count on this section alone as I’ve been mulling this for a few weeks now.
        Options:


        A. Stay the same as 2020.

        B. Make more ‘books’ - safer

        C. Go Big Or Go Home – on a few

        D. More focus on ‘the week’



        A. Stay the same as 2020.


        I better delve into a bit more detail about the breakdown of this years approach for anyone that doesn’t know/needs refreshing.
        Very briefly, in some races I try to beat the Starting Price for every horse, minimise non-runners and ‘go green’ so it doesn’t matter who wins. The QMCC was a great example of that this year, whereby I decided to “go-green” and just enjoy it. The defection of CPS and Altior was disappointing as a spectacle but I did take some comfort in knowing that I’d made a nice tidy profit no matter who won. I know for a fact if I hadn’t gone green I’d have just left Defi Du Seuil to waltz home and it’d have been a bit of a disaster.


        In other races I take a strong opinion and only back horses that I believe are true value against them. The cross country is the best example of that from this year. I strongly fancied Tiger Roll to win it. So much so that I placed a large single on him on the day (had nothing ante post). The saving grace was that I’d backed the only horse I considered to be ‘value’ against him which was Easysland at 20/1 and again at 7/1. (Not for great amounts, but enough to make a profit) for essentially being wrong. I wouldn’t have wanted to make a book in the race as I genuinely only thought a handful of horses had a chance of winning it.

        Overall, it’s a mix and match approach, that I feel is flexible and quite ‘safe’. It’s very hard for me to actually lose a substantial amount – I’d need to be crippled by non runners, or have an exceptional amount of upsets, last fence falls or other unaccounted for acts to have a really bad week. What that does mean though is that it also LIMITS the amount I can possibly win. There was pretty much no chance, despite me having 25/28 winners of me winning lofty 6 figure sums.



        B. Make more ‘books’


        I’m pretty resigned to the fact I am NOT going to do this for next season. It would be safer in one respect because of the aforementioned apprehension I have around how effectively I’ll be able to work out this years form with less to go on from last season and the changes to the coming seasons schedule, however, making a book is the ‘least fun’ part. It’s satisfying when it pays off, and I have a lot of examples to fall back on, but to do it for more races than I already do would change the general feel of the festival from being a challenge to more of a transaction. I’ve got no doubts I’d turn a steady profit doing it, especially whilst I can still cash out, but I want to kick on, rather than consolidate and there will always be ‘books’ to fall back on.



        C. Go Big Or Go Home


        What I meant by that, is to have some ‘key horses’ that are pretty much make or break my week. As an example I’d want a year that was 10 times more profitable and if that doesn’t happen/click, the worst case scenario to “break even” through the week. Sounds easy on paper haha. I don’t think I can do that at the moment bar having like, “the perfect” week where absolutely everything hit and realistically, that’s 28/28 and every winner being the “best winner”… that’ll never happen. So this is riskier but much more rewarding if I can zone in and get “three to click”. Linked with lots of others, but “3 is the magic number”?

        I highlighted on the forum not long after this years festival had finished on the parallels I personally can see between Altior and Yorkhill going novice chasing to Shishkin and Envoi Allen. With hindsight, I wish I’d won even more from the Altior/Yorkhill double. I was so keen on for so long. It was my best ever win at the time and naturally I want to emulate and better it.

        All very well and good saying that though, there is so much that can go wrong and this is what’s putting me off. The year Faugheen got injured, my method was pretty much “go big or go home” around him and multiples including him. I think I’ve also done similar around Apple’s Jade when she didn’t win the Mares too. I haven’t really done it since then but just as an example, this year I had my “key horses” as Benie Des Dieux, Tiger Roll and Paisley Park – and not even 1 of them landed and if I’d adopted that strategy last year for this festival I’d have been ‘going home’.

        So the questions are, who are the horses and is this risk worth the reward.
        Will have to have a lot more chat around this in particular so I’ll see what people think… comments very much welcomed (bold to assume anyone has read this far, well done if you have)



        D. Focus more on the week/or start after NRNB


        Probably the most sensible option overall. Given the climate at the moment. Some of the profitable punters on here like Quevega and Scooby (and where is jono?!) haven’t really got going yet, others are deeper now than they usually would be. I’ve just checked and at this date last year I’d had 35 bets on Cheltenham 2020. As of right now, I’ve had 35 bets on Cheltenham 2021 – so I’m exactly where I ‘usually’ am. No right or wrong with that, but I am starting to lean towards a less speculative and more opinionated approach and that would mean starting slower (or not ramping up as quickly)


        I don’t limit myself or really track how many bets I’ve placed, only in hindsight, but putting less emphasis on picking winners before October rolls around doesn’t seem like it can be a bad idea at all. The way the Dublin Racing Festival has shaped the calendar is on my mind too. I don’t really feel like Christmas is particularly relevant anymore either. You’ll always have exceptions but I think focussing week to week and treating Christmas as it’s own entity, then really ramping up for Cheltenham around the DRF and especially when NRNB come in could end up being ‘easier, safer and more lucrative’.


        Do the ‘stats’ back that up….


        Excluding non runner returns / cash out returns:

        2019 for 2020 I placed 149 bets, 122 bets of them had no return. So only 27 winning bets from 149 (18%)

        419 bets in 2020 for 2020, with 106 winners (25%)

        Based on the small sample size, I won less than 1 in 5 bets I placed before the turn of the year, improving to a win 1 out of every 4 bets after it.

        Food for thought? Probably not enough in it…. But it’s definitely an option.

        Interested to know what people think I should do though…..
        Last edited by Kevloaf; 28 May 2020, 09:24 AM.

        Comment


        • #5
          3. How did the yankees/multiples/ lucky 15's/placepots etc do for all?


          This is eye opening!!!


          Yankee’s and Multiples


          2014 = -1.8 pts

          2015 = +38 pts

          2016 = -6.2 pts

          2017 = +80 pts

          2018 = -65.8 pts

          2019 = -90.6 pts

          2020 = +110.3 pts


          Very hit and miss! Nearly 90 points of this years profit was from two bets. The Big River/The Conditional special at 25/1 (2 pts) placed on 9/3/20 and the Albert Bartlett 1-2-3-4 placed about 5 minutes before the off at 150/1. So ante post, a big fat failure for the third year in a row!


          Since 2014 (the first time I had any form of ‘non single’) I’m 63.9 points up from multiples overall. They hardly seem worth it when the stake to get to that many points is a whopping 1532.1 pts.


          I do always bring myself back though to 2018, when I had 5 separate horses that were all worth 5 figures sums running from various multiples. None of them landed but the multiples alone were the reason I was in that position.


          Still, cold light of day… multiples and specials are not really worth it! Probably why I am one of the least enthused on the forum regarding the Sky Request-A-Bets…




          Forecasts/Tricasts



          Some of you may remember last year I ‘nailed’ most of the handicaps. I actually never got round to posting about how much I’d have been up/down if I’d have backed all my runners in combination forecasts/tricasts, but it was on my mind and I kept a pot aside to have a bash at all 10 handicaps.


          It started off well however was a case of what could have been! I landed the forecast in the Ultima and Nov Handicap Chase… but frustratingly would have landed the Tricast in both. A decent enough profit from both.

          Aware of this, in the Coral I went for the Tricast, and landed 1-2-4, so no payout. Boodles to be fair I’d only got a 1st and 4th so no good.


          Pertemps . Inexplicably omitted Sire Du Berlais from the Tricast, that had the 2-3, but I decided to also but him in combination forecasts…. But with different horses as a saver. I can’t actually explain the logic of what I was thinking here because literally every other tri/forecast selection in the week I only selected horses I’d backed. So, I had the 1-2-3 but got nothing as I fluffed up with some very poor decisions.


          Festival Plate… went for tricasts, got the 1-2 so no payout.


          Kim Muir…. I FORGOT TO BACK ANYTHING, so no forecasts or tricasts…. Had the 1-2-3 in the race. Fucking fantastic. I was not happy at all. A complete lapse in concentration, can’t tell you what I was doing or why I didn’t bother in this race, but despite a decent return anyway, it did and does still hurt.


          County Hurdle I remembered of course, only to land the 1-3-4. I should really have covered Aramon really as I did fancy him. I assume I just thought I’d completely missed the price and to be fair I did strongly fancy quite a few in the race.


          Grand Annual went for Tricasts and had the 1-3-4 so no return there.


          The Martin Pipe was bittersweet. I only went for Forecasts, and had the 1-2-3-4 … so if I’d have had tricasts, and even if CoF didn’t fall, it would have landed.

          I can’t work out what all these near misses would have won, I do know I made a loss overall from them, but I am pretty adamant with a bit more of a calculated and disciplined approach I can definitely make money from this. It may involve a ‘weighted’ Forecast and Tricast staking plan in each race. I’m looking forward to it though. The sense of satisfaction of nailing a tricast in a festival handicap is a feeling I am craving after not getting paid for some that I feel I should have!


          Anyone else got a structured approach towards them that they can help me out with?

          Comment


          • #6
            4. What advice or lessons can be learnt from this year (ante post and/or on the day)



            My first bit of ‘advice’ is regarding the topic of each way that comes up on the forum quite a lot and I’m in the minority it seems as somebody who does like to play each way.


            Of all the bets I placed for 2020 that were each way not including WINS, this is the PLACE ONLY figures:
            Staked - 205 pts

            Return – 452 pts
            Profit +247 pts


            When I include WINNERS (not just place returns) from the E/W bets I placed though these are the figures:
            Staked - 739 pts
            Return – 1032 pts
            Profit +293 pts


            The win only bets I placed:
            Stake – 439 pts
            Return – 722 pts
            Profit +283 pts



            My summary on that, is that anybody that feels betting each way ante post is a negative is just plain wrong. I personally believe that as bookies pay out on 3 places, you have 3 positions you’re trying to make money from. (4 in the case of all the handicaps) so to me, if you ignore the place parts you’re literally giving up on chances to profit. Everybody wants the winners, but they’re not mutually exclusive and my advice will continue to play each way in the first instance. The lazy calculation people do is that you ‘double your stake’ doing that, but I don’t think that’s the case. I’d hardly ever put a 1 pt win bet on, it’d be 1 pt each way, or 2 points win… as winning 1 pt’s worth isn’t worth it to me at anything less than 20/1, and at the point you might as well be considering each way.







            Second piece of advice, based on my experience:


            I’ll continue to ‘exploit’ the 95% cash outs, especially for novices. When a ‘hype horse’ is declared, backing it for the Supreme or Ballymore (or a Novice Chase to a lesser extent) and being able to cash out for 95% after a flop is a very small price to play for the numerous impressive wins where the horse gets slashed and you then have a 100% cash out available before the second run. It’s so valuable. Forgetting to back it after being scratched when entered again is the only way you can fudge this up. Doh.



            Finally, stop doing multiples See post 3

            Comment


            • #7
              5. Your biggest mistakes / The races / horses you got wrong




              Apart from...




              Day 1

              Shishkin has to be first, of course. Whilst I don’t think I was ‘wrong’ that he was priced up horribly, it’s inevitable that because I cashed out at 33/1 and then didn’t back him again which I should have, given the low risk – high reward potential, that I perhaps waited longer than I should to back him. I know I’d backed him after the drift but that was a bit of a pussy move and given his prep I wouldn’t and didn’t really expect him to be able to do what he did.


              This actually wasn’t a bad day in hindsight, certainly no mistake in the Arkle. I was adamant the Irish were ahead, and they were by miles Brewin’upaterrible as peoples Arkle pick, pfft Talk of him winning at 2021 is bonkers as well, give yourself a talking to if you’ve considered backing him.


              Whilst the CH went well overall, I did think Cornerstone Lad was a decent bet and he was shite. Not as shite as Pentland Hills though, and this is an admission. Despite absolutely slating everyone for backing him all year, he drifted out to 12/1 and based on Shishkin gate, I had 2 pts e/w at 12/1. Bleeeeuggggh. I deserve to be mocked for that. Very cowardly decision.


              Got Honeysuckle/Benie Des Dieux wrong. I just didn’t think BDD would be beaten by her if she was within a length or two with 2f to go, and she was. No real excuse either, too much made of the ride. I was just wrong and Honeysuckle is better than I thought.


              Was also wrong to the Carefully Selected was a banker after the defection of Champagne Classic, although I can see why I thought it, but he was on my mind as a Gold Cup player pre race.

              Day 2

              Champ, but I covered him earlier. Same with Tiger Roll too. Ferny Hollow has to be a big neon flashing WRONG too. I definitely abused people for sticking with him after his defeat first time out and although I covered with a free bet after he drifted back out to 25/1, I was not happy to see him put it together and people keeping the faith with a hype horse have the last laugh here . I did always say I’d be interested when he see’s a hurdle though so it’s a clean slate now.


              Nothing else really stands out on Day 2, and bar Paisley Park and the Pertemps that I’ve already covered Day 3 went really well.

              Day 4
              Solo I got wrong. I thought he was a good thing for a place. He was shite. It makes an absolute mockery of the Adonis rating he got. I was pretty level headed going in to the race knowing he shouldn’t be rated that high and because I had him at 25/1 and 20/1 it meant that I just knew I had the value in the market so I didn’t get stung. I admit I did hope he was a bit special though, and he’s not.


              I got the Gold Cup wrong ante post. I didn’t think Al Boum Photo would add his name to the ridiculously high calibre list of dual winners. Wasn’t wrong by far, but my “team” was 2nd, 5th, 8th and Fell – so one of the worst races. I was lucky to be in a position to have and create saver situations but still, I got it wrong.


              To be perfectly honest though, considering I’m reviewing my best ever year, it’s hard to find too many overarching errors or mistakes… but if there are any I’ve omitted, pipe up

              Comment


              • #8
                6. Other points



                The preview scene is almost moot for me now. A couple of years back I just adored listening and watching but there are so many previews that I’d now consider bad, or useless, that they’re losing their appeal.

                Podcasts – I haven’t listened to any at all since the festival. Have there been any worthwhile review ones one listen to? My starting point used to be the FFP but I’m in no hurry to listen to that at the moment. Obviously I’ll listen to “Anythey’reoff” when I am back in to it, but other suggestions are welcome.

                Video Form – last year one of my takeaways was I didn’t dedicate enough time to video form. Spending too much time talking about horses on here that I’d only watched back the once was a huge problem and I addressed it this year. I’ll look to continue that trend.


                Thank you for anyone who takes the time to read these posts.
                I’ve enjoyed doing it and it nicely wraps up the look back at last years races that I did a week or so ago for me. I feel I can draw a line in the sand on last season with my thoughts clarified and I can start building towards next year… so with that in mind, any comments, suggestions and questions are welcomed.

                Comment


                • #9
                  Originally posted by Istabraq
                  Great work Kev and a great read, well done.

                  I took the decision on Midlands National day to bin all my written records and not calculate the returns had Column of Fire stood up, as someone who has been punting seriously for many years I think knowing the numbers would just be too painful to bear, but I applaud you for the comprehensive review.
                  Excellent effort...
                  ...and you thought you were done ...

                  I wouldn't read it all in one go

                  Comment


                  • #10
                    Originally posted by Kevloaf View Post
                    ...and you thought you were done ...

                    I wouldn't read it all in one go
                    Haha, felt a bit like the house insurance renewal docs, always another page !
                    Still a great read - all of it.

                    Quick question, what will your approach be if/when you lose the benefit of cash out ?
                    If the dreaded e-mail was to land tomorrow do you have a plan B ?

                    Comment


                    • #11
                      Good question, plan B would be to get nowhere near making a book on the novice hurdles. Essentially just much more selective and probably involve me focusing on just a few 'key' horses.

                      I'd be open to other approaches then though fit due. The cash out has made me 'lazy' in a way (although it does take a lot of effort) but I think you know what I mean?
                      Low risk, not punished for guessing etc, which can't last forever.

                      Comment


                      • #12
                        Brilliant read. How you have the energy to write up that lot amazes me but very well done. Sounds like you had an incredible week and those AP prices were spectacular. Cracking profit to boot.

                        Comment


                        • #13
                          Decent read that Kev warts & all, solid numbers indeed. Regarding your e/w approach, no doubt it suits your book building style as you are looking for 3 returns essentially within that approach. I am surprised to learn 20/1< at 1 point is "isn't worth it to me"you must be flush.

                          P.S I think it's only fair you change your picture to a closet for a month after the pentland confession.

                          Comment


                          • #14
                            I wouldn't describe it as lazy but I am amazed at the ease in which you (and others) are able to get rid of bets on horses where it has been widely communicated they will be missing the target.
                            I don’t get what the strategy is from bookies, does it look good for turnover ? Do the assume all returns from cash out will be re-invested ? I don’t know but you and plenty of others are playing the system well and taking advantage of what is a flaw in their operation.

                            As a side, how many of your ‘pokes’ that landed would not have been placed had cash out not existed ?
                            I guess this could give you an indication of how valuable cash out is to you and what the potential cost would be if it didn’t exist.

                            Who does cash out now, just 365 ?

                            Comment


                            • #15
                              Cracking stuff Kev, and FYI, you're not alone backing E/W, been doing it since day 1 myself too

                              I look forward to the many write ups on here but yours is usually the most thorough. Once I've made profit from the festival the lag happens and I never get round to what you are able to produce.

                              Comment

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