Mares Hurdle 2021

[YoungHustler]

I'm not sure I fancy her for anything more than a staying on place. I haven't backed her for my book and won't bother given she's a hateful 3/1. She was incredibly lucky 2 years ago when she won, and Stormy Irelnad was only a couple of lengths behind. Last year she was a never near 4th with Stormy Ireland one place behind her again.

I think we can be fairly sure how Stormy Ireland's form rates, which is nowhere near good enough, and I'd be 100% confident a fit and well Concertista beats Roksana. I suspect at least one or two more will have too much toe for over two and a half miles too.

The problem for Roksana is she's not good enough to win anything, but she's surely better served by going to the Stayers with the allowance over her correct trip, where they know she's close to Paisley Park and Thyme Hill.

I genuinely don't understand why they want to come to this race at all, whatever the ground conditions.

I genuinely hope you're right Spectre as a Concertista win for me would set me up nicely due to having her in plenty of multiples from the start of the season. Maybe this is clouding my judgement on Roksana and making me more worried about her than I should be but I think she appears to be in much better form than last year.

[Spectre]

Surely you can see the mares race gives her an easier chance of victory with just one horse to beat as opposed to a hot looking stayers hurdle with 5/6 genuine contenders!

I disagree Kautostar. Over two and half miles I think she's vulenrable to horses not as good as her.

[Kautostar]

I disagree Kautostar. Over two and half miles I think she's vulenrable to horses not as good as her.

But surely you can see why they would aim her here? Like younghustler has pointed out she’s looked in better form all season and apart from the fav this race is weak!

[Quevega]

But surely you can see why they would aim her here? Like younghustler has pointed out she’s looked in better form all season and apart from the fav this race is weak!

I agree.
She looks a better horse this year, the way she travels;
Which funnily enough is similar to Concertista as she travels much more sweetly this season.

Concertista does look like she has more speed though and this is natural given their ages.

Roksana will need a strong gallop, so will DDC, so will Black Tears and even Concertista.

Not sure at this stage who will provide that though. Floressa maybe ? for a while anyway.

[Spectre]

I actually can't. She's a stayer and this race will be won by horses with speed. Look at Honeysuckle going to the Champion Hurdle. Concertista could easily go the same way.

It's the same reason why Istabraq and Faugheen could win Ballymore's and then step back and become Champion Hurdlers.

Roksana's profile for this race is all wrong. It would need to be a bog for her to be competitive with Concertista, and if it's not I'd say the next 5 or 6 in the betting will be competitive with her.

On the other hand she was only 2 lengths behing Paisley Park and Thyme Hill the two hot favourites for the Stayers, and she has a genuine chance of making that up with luck in running. For me the Stayers is a complete no-brainer.

[Spectre]

I agree.
She looks a better horse this year, the way she travels;
Which funnily enough is similar to Concertista as she travels much more sweetly this season.

Concertista does look like she has more speed though and this is natural given their ages.

Roksana will need a strong gallop, so will DDC, so will Black Tears and even Concertista.

Not sure at this stage who will provide that though. Floressa maybe ? for a while anyway.

The Mares Hurdle always ends up being a speed test. It's why Benie can't dominate like Annie Power used to do despite being the best Mare in training. the trip and the way the race is run brings other horses closer.

[Quevega]

The Mares Hurdle always ends up being a speed test. It's why Benie can't dominate like Annie Power used to do despite being the best Mare in training. the trip and the way the race is run brings other horses closer.

Often is, but not always, like when Benie actually won it. That was a war of attrition.
Last year certainly was a sprint finish.
2 previous years were run at a reasonable gallop in the ground I think.

[Carnage at Taunton]

covered already but Skeltons making a late call ?

https://www.skysports.com/racing/new...-late-decision

inclined to think she will end here if honeysuckle goes champion hurdle. May have some nice mates multiples fir the wrong reasons

Reading that it says to me that they know she is better over 3m which her form this season suggests , and only soft ground could see her coming here, makes sense to
me.
Personally don’t fancy her in either race to win.

[Quevega]

I actually can't. She's a stayer and this race will be won by horses with speed. Look at Honeysuckle going to the Champion Hurdle. Concertista could easily go the same way.

It's the same reason why Istabraq and Faugheen could win Ballymore's and then step back and become Champion Hurdlers.

Roksana's profile for this race is all wrong. It would need to be a bog for her to be competitive with Concertista, and if it's not I'd say the next 5 or 6 in the betting will be competitive with her.

On the other hand she was only 2 lengths behing Paisley Park and Thyme Hill the two hot favourites for the Stayers, and she has a genuine chance of making that up with luck in running. For me the Stayers is a complete no-brainer.

Quevega won it 6 years on the trot and then followed up against the grade 1 stayers at Punchestown over 3 miles, almost every year.
She'd have won a champion hurdle also though

[Kevloaf]

Concertista versus Roksana.

What a clash.

Can't wait

[Lobos]

I'd prefer Roksana in the Stayer's as I would really love a Concertista win but the Mares Hurdle is now the preferred option according to Skelton's stable tour in the RP:

'We’re going to aim for the Mares’ Hurdle unless come declaration time the ground is good, good to soft in which case she’ll go three miles in the Stayers’ Hurdle. If it’s normal first-day conditions she’ll be in the mares’ race.'

Based on the ridiculously dry forecast I'd think the Stayers would be odds on fav.

[Istabraq]

Concertista versus Roksana.

What a clash.

Can't wait

How you pricing the match Kev ?
I’m 4/9 Concertista 15/8 Roksana

[Lobos]

I'm not sure I fancy her for anything more than a staying on place. I haven't backed her for my book and won't bother given she's a hateful 3/1. She was incredibly lucky 2 years ago when she won, and Stormy Irelnad was only a couple of lengths behind. Last year she was a never near 4th with Stormy Ireland one place behind her again.

I think we can be fairly sure how Stormy Ireland's form rates, which is nowhere near good enough, and I'd be 100% confident a fit and well Concertista beats Roksana. I suspect at least one or two more will have too much toe for over two and a half miles too.

The problem for Roksana is she's not good enough to win anything, but she's surely better served by going to the Stayers with the allowance over her correct trip, where they know she's close to Paisley Park and Thyme Hill.

I genuinely don't understand why they want to come to this race at all, whatever the ground conditions.

Bang on the money Spectre. Exactly my thinking and the reasons I won't be backing her for either race. She is clearly better over 3 miles though this season so that is what they should stick to.

[Quevega]

Based on the ridiculously dry forecast I'd think the Stayers would be odds on fav.

Like they'll start the festival on that ground.
What are you talking about ?
He's basically saying they'll run in the mares.

[Lobos]

But surely you can see why they would aim her here? Like younghustler has pointed out she’s looked in better form all season and apart from the fav this race is weak!

The race may look weaker than the Stayers but she has looked very good over 3 miles this season. Keep her to the distance she's excelled at.