Mares Hurdle 2021

[opatcho]

Thanks Crowley, may reduce stakes on CH for Concertista and leave a small bit on CH just in case

[SeanRock]

Fairly obvious one but nice to see the Mares Hurdles is the target for Burning Victory

Burning Victory
4f Nathaniel - M'Oubliez Pas
Mrs Audrey Turley
11-
RPR 140h OR 144h
We've had our own share of bad luck at Cheltenham, so we'll take what happened in the Triumph. She was very novicey at Cheltenham and the experience she gained there will stand her in good stead. I fully expect her to be a Grade 1 mare this season. She could be a big player in mares' races. The Mares' Hurdle at Cheltenham will be her main target this season. She would stay two and a half miles every day of the week.

[Lobos]

Fairly obvious one but nice to see the Mares Hurdles is the target for Burning Victory

Burning Victory
4f Nathaniel - M'Oubliez Pas
Mrs Audrey Turley
11-
RPR 140h OR 144h
We've had our own share of bad luck at Cheltenham, so we'll take what happened in the Triumph. She was very novicey at Cheltenham and the experience she gained there will stand her in good stead. I fully expect her to be a Grade 1 mare this season. She could be a big player in mares' races. The Mares' Hurdle at Cheltenham will be her main target this season. She would stay two and a half miles every day of the week.

That's her and Concertista then. Both are more than capable and will allow Benie to run in the Mares Chase. Are you listening Willie ???!!!

[Kevloaf]

Just pondering Burning Victory. My thoughts on 11th May were:



Originally posted by Kevloaf View Post
Burning Victory has put in a pretty impressive performance in this race. 6f to go she’s last by what looks like the best part of 20 lengths. She’s made a move around the turn and saunters past Adonis winner Solo. At the 2f pole she’s just gotten level with Aspire Tower but by the time we get to 1f out and the final flight she taken off and landed before he gets his legs up and she’s moved into ‘the lead’ after reeling in the front running Allmankind. She is running away from both quite powerfully at the line and it’s a very impressive performance that for obvious reasons may well go under the radar. This was only her 2^nd run for Willie and she’s unbeaten and a festival winner. I’m confident she will get further and the 20/1 on offer for the Mares Hurdle may well be double the price she is when lining up. However, as a juvenile it’s dangerous to get carried away as the whole crop may not have been up to much (with the obvious exception). I hoped she’d perhaps have been completely over looked but 20/1 is about right. Definitely not a bet for me at this stage but certainly made it onto the shortlist for horses to consider in that sphere.
I like that the market leaders were 2^nd and 3^rd, it gives the race a solid look and this form will be potentially quite important in assessing Goshen going forward.





Willie in the RP stable tour mentions her in a very positive light.... "I fully expect her to be a Grade 1 mare this season. She could be a big player in mares' races. The Mares' Hurdle at Cheltenham will be her main target this season. She would stay two and a half miles every day of the week."

Given that, although there is no reason to rush to back her, we're now almost 6 months on and she's still 20/1.... I'm going to take that, 2 pts e/w tonight. Despite Goshen's flat exploits, Allmankind was decent from the same race and the Mares division will be easier to make a dent in for Burning Victory than other horses may find open company (like Goshen)...


Whilst I don't think she'll beat Honeysuckle, or Benie Des Dieux - the rest are the notch below and I'm willing to chance her at the moment. I might be getting a bit too bullish about BDD 'not' running here, however I can't really see much danger with this bet... even if she disappoints along the way, 20/1 for a festival winner is unlikely to ever look like a bad bet the following season.




2 pts e/w at 20/1 - Burning Victory - Mares Hurdles

[Lobos]

Added Burning Victory to my list of Mares Hurdle hopefuls. liked the way she stayed on in the Triumph and should be loads of improvement to come in view of her inexperience. 1pt @ 20's

[Run4Home]

Pondering if Dolcita at 50/1 is a vey big price as an ew bet before she runs tomorrow .... plenty of uncertainty about some of the market principles.

[Quevega]

Just pondering Burning Victory. My thoughts on 11th May were:



Originally posted by Kevloaf View Post
Burning Victory has put in a pretty impressive performance in this race. 6f to go she’s last by what looks like the best part of 20 lengths. She’s made a move around the turn and saunters past Adonis winner Solo. At the 2f pole she’s just gotten level with Aspire Tower but by the time we get to 1f out and the final flight she taken off and landed before he gets his legs up and she’s moved into ‘the lead’ after reeling in the front running Allmankind. She is running away from both quite powerfully at the line and it’s a very impressive performance that for obvious reasons may well go under the radar. This was only her 2^nd run for Willie and she’s unbeaten and a festival winner. I’m confident she will get further and the 20/1 on offer for the Mares Hurdle may well be double the price she is when lining up. However, as a juvenile it’s dangerous to get carried away as the whole crop may not have been up to much (with the obvious exception). I hoped she’d perhaps have been completely over looked but 20/1 is about right. Definitely not a bet for me at this stage but certainly made it onto the shortlist for horses to consider in that sphere.
I like that the market leaders were 2^nd and 3^rd, it gives the race a solid look and this form will be potentially quite important in assessing Goshen going forward.





Willie in the RP stable tour mentions her in a very positive light.... "I fully expect her to be a Grade 1 mare this season. She could be a big player in mares' races. The Mares' Hurdle at Cheltenham will be her main target this season. She would stay two and a half miles every day of the week."

Given that, although there is no reason to rush to back her, we're now almost 6 months on and she's still 20/1.... I'm going to take that, 2 pts e/w tonight. Despite Goshen's flat exploits, Allmankind was decent from the same race and the Mares division will be easier to make a dent in for Burning Victory than other horses may find open company (like Goshen)...


Whilst I don't think she'll beat Honeysuckle, or Benie Des Dieux - the rest are the notch below and I'm willing to chance her at the moment. I might be getting a bit too bullish about BDD 'not' running here, however I can't really see much danger with this bet... even if she disappoints along the way, 20/1 for a festival winner is unlikely to ever look like a bad bet the following season.




2 pts e/w at 20/1 - Burning Victory - Mares Hurdles

I like Burning Victory, for the same reasons, as discussed back in the summer.
But I'm going to stick with my original thoughts that whilst 20-1 is fair enough, especially as the mares hurdle has been stated.
I would be wary of how many he has actually said are aiming for the mares hurdle.
He could run shitloads, but he may also pick a team that have earned the right.

The improvement IMO for Burning Victory is likely to be in the Spring, if at all, and she is likely to get beat prior to that.
So no rush, and the price may even be bigger at some stage, the risk is I'm wrong and she is impressive early on, even with her lack of experience.
But that's betting.

[Kevloaf]

I like Burning Victory, for the same reasons, as discussed back in the summer.
But I'm going to stick with my original thoughts that whilst 20-1 is fair enough, especially as the mares hurdle has been stated.
I would be wary of how many he has actually said are aiming for the mares hurdle.
He could run shitloads, but he may also pick a team that have earned the right.

The improvement IMO for Burning Victory is likely to be in the Spring, if at all, and she is likely to get beat prior to that.
So no rush, and the price may even be bigger at some stage, the risk is I'm wrong and she is impressive early on, even with her lack of experience.
But that's betting.

Sounds like he will run a heap at the moment doesn't it.

I don't disagree at all that there is no rush. I took the gamble yesterday as it was only 1 week shy of 6 months since I'd originally put that post up and that felt like a good decision not to back her in May, but to take her now before she runs. You may be right, she may well get a bit bigger. I can't imagine her SP being bigger than 20/1 though, just purely based on being a 'reigning champion' for all that she is a bit flattered by that.

The 20/1 is just fair still, not standout at all. I am probably a little bit too swayed with the dangling that BDD may not turn up... as that'd make this a lovely each way race. The reality is that Honeysuckle and BDD are both probably odds on to run here, making it a bad race to be each way in.... However, I still think she'd be shorter on the day...

If she is beaten on the way and pushed out, I'd back her again, hold all the bets until we got to day of race (or NRNB type markets) and I'd be still hopefuly 20/1 is higher than the SP - meaning I'd get the best of both worlds, in cashing the 20s I have now for 100%, still holding the bigger prices AND have the potential for her to shorten 'dramatically' (she's probably 8/1 at best though)...

[Lobos]

Henry de Bromhead reports Benie Des Dieux's Cheltenham conqueror to be better than ever as her reappearance edges closer and has not ruled out a switch to chasing at a later date.
It will not happen this season, though, as Honeysuckle will return to Fairyhouse on November 29 for the race she won so brilliantly by nine lengths last year.

De Bromhead, speaking via Zoom at the launch of the Fairyhouse Winter festival, said: "Honeysuckle is brilliant and we’re very lucky to have her. It was a great performance in the Hatton's Grace last year and she seems in good form, so hopefully she will have another good go at it this year.

She’s not a mare that would take a huge amount of work so you wouldn’t be working her a lot at home. If she is in the same form as last year, we will start in the Hatton’s Grace and then probably go to the Irish Champion Hurdle and reassess everything after that.

"If things have gone well, she’ll get an entry for the Mares’ Hurdle and Champion Hurdle at Cheltenham."

On the prospect of Honeysuckle going chasing, the trainer added: "She has achieved so much over hurdles but, in fairness to her, most Sundays she loose-schools over a fence, so she’s keeping her eye in with it. Touch wood, she seems very good. We’ll see, but that could happen."

[ComplyOrDie]

Pondering if Dolcita at 50/1 is a vey big price as an ew bet before she runs tomorrow .... plenty of uncertainty about some of the market principles.

I'm probably going to back her any race I think. I don't have full confidence in her being good enough for the Mares Hurdle (should all the big girls turn up), however I could see her being a handicap prospect. Possibly the Coral Cup.

[Run4Home]

Paul N on Dolcita -

for those asking and abusing me re Dolcita sadly she bled badly . Just shows they are not machines !!

[Eggs]

....interested how Daylight Katie goes today.

[Big Bucks]

....interested how Daylight Katie goes today.

Didn't Gordon say aim was to go chasing this season? I originally had her here until he said that! Think I read to much into his tour!

[jono]

Didn't Gordon say aim was to go chasing this season? I originally had her here until he said that! Think I read to much into his tour!

Yeah. She was entered up in a beginners chase today as well at Cork but it got abandoned Friday. May we’ll have taken up the race over fences otherwise. She’s clearly ready to run and having missed 2 chase entries in the last month they just want to get a run in to her

[Pendil1111]

Fairly big news for this race, Honeysuckle's plans are to remain over hurdles.


Wasn't expecting that personally.

Will it affect Benie Des Dieux's target?

Will they have a rematch?



Is Honeysuckle certain to run here? (if well)

TWAR 3/1 (7/2 to win this)