Mares Hurdle 2021

[Pendil]

So Concertista definitely is being aimed at the Mares hurdle, meaning BDD is not. Honeysuckle if she wins the Irish champion hurdle will go for the Champion hurdle, which clouds the issue in relation to her participation in the Mares hurdle.
BDD, if fit will go for the Mares chase
So it makes sense with that swirling around for Concertista to shorten for this

[isitmarchyet]

If this race plays out the way it is edging towards and Honey is in the Churdle, Roskana is in the Stayers and Benie is in the Mares Chase what is left beyond Consertiesta?? I’ve just looked at the rest of the field and whilst they are big prices it’s very uninspiring. Mineral Melody has been beaten twice by Consertiesta, Dolcita has struggled this term and the rest of the field have disappointed or handicappers at best. Any suggestions or ideas??

If Honey and Benie both skip this race, I'd be surprised if the Skelton's didn't run Roksana here. Would surely seem more winnable than the Stayers at that point? Henderson would probably be tempted to have a crack at this with Dame De Compagnie too...

Indefatigable could be interesting at a bigger price. Been disappointing this season but does have Festival form.

[Lobos]

If Honey and Benie both skip this race, I'd be surprised if the Skelton's didn't run Roksana here. Would surely seem more winnable than the Stayers at that point? Henderson would probably be tempted to have a crack at this with Dame De Compagnie too...

Disagree re Roksanna as she has improved stepping up in distance but agree re DDC especially with Elimay going Mares Chase.

[Kevloaf]

Roksana wouldn't need to improve to beat this field though if Honeysuckle, Concertista and Benie Des Dieux didn't run.

As a previous winner of the race, she'd set the standard.



She's not a bad play at 6/1 NRNB.....

The worry would be Skelton does a U-Turn on what her target is, as 6/1 isn't that good a bet if any of the above did run, as she'd be a similar price but with a drastically reduced win chance.

[Istabraq]

Disagree re Roksanna as she has improved stepping up in distance but agree re DDC especially with Elimay going Mares Chase.

Yeah I think there’s little to no chance Roksana lands here, was outpaced last year and improved markedly for the step up to 3m this...

[isitmarchyet]

I agree she's better at 3 miles, just saying it'd be tempting for them if the race cut up. Skelton said it's a possibility himself after her last race:

“At the end of the day the Mares’ hurdle is stacked high with Irish quality, and then the Stayers’ Hurdle has got two that we’ve had a go at and have been beaten by already.

“They’re both pretty daunting tasks, but she hasn’t had the hardest time in the world so far and that will stand her in good stead.

“We’ll always be optimistic and have her there in her best condition. She’s looked brilliant this year and she’ll run her race, we know that.

“Everyone can see she’s best at three miles now, and unless the mares’ race cuts up significantly I think we’d have another crack at the Stayers’.

[The King Pimm]

Sorry I think my point is that I’m not used to backing just one horse in a race and if my only dart is Consertiesta and something happens to her within 48 hours I may be left scrambling for an alternative (the obvious answer is don’t bet and leave the race alone but I can’t)

Which horses have a genuine chance of winning this beyond the big 4? The other reason is for each way plays when Consertiesta’s price is an even money shot?? Lamarkise was a distant hope that’s faded, Elimay & Coolreevy have alternative engagements along with the Dame DC possibly. Great White Shark & Whitehotchilli may be good enough but it’s too long in distance for Floressa & Verdana Blue??

[isitmarchyet]

Roksana wouldn't need to improve to beat this field though if Honeysuckle, Concertista and Benie Des Dieux didn't run.

As a previous winner of the race, she'd set the standard.


She's not a bad play at 6/1 NRNB.....

The worry would be Skelton does a U-Turn on what her target is, as 6/1 isn't that good a bet if any of the above did run, as she'd be a similar price but with a drastically reduced win chance.

One I'd be looking at NRNB would be The Glancing Queen. Alan King said recently that he was favouring the novice race so I don't think she'd run here unless the race cuts up, but could be decent EW value at 33/1.

[Rhinestone_Cowboy]

If this race plays out the way it is edging towards and Honey is in the Churdle, Roskana is in the Stayers and Benie is in the Mares Chase what is left beyond Consertiesta?? I’ve just looked at the rest of the field and whilst they are big prices it’s very uninspiring. Mineral Melody has been beaten twice by Consertiesta, Dolcita has struggled this term and the rest of the field have disappointed or handicappers at best. Any suggestions or ideas??

Have to bear in mind despite being nibbled Honeysuckle is still odds against to win next weekend which means she has likely less than a 50% chance of running in the CH. Obviously a lot depends on the opposition that lines us against her next weekend, but personally I would want to see her odds on for that race before I could think of backing Concertista for this prerace.

[dannycraigpirates]

Had to do the Honeysuckle / Concertista double @ 54.25/1 - it seems to be a no brainer, as there is limited opposition to Concertista in the mares

[Topofthegame2021]

I’m really in two minds with what I want, here’s why:

I think Concertista beats Honey anyway so I want Honey to be beaten by Saldier or Saint Roi in the ICH so they go to March with a good shout.


OR


I want Honey to win the ICH so she goes to the CH as PERSONALLY I think she’s got no chance in a CH as she jumps too slow and wants 2 1/2miles. Doesn’t have the pace Epatante will.

I'm caught in two minds. I’m really sweet on Concertista and really like her, as I said I think she’d beat Honey anyway but it’d make it a lot easier if she’s not there.

Perfect case for me - Honey is beaten in the ICH & goes to the CH anyway..... I really can’t see that happening

[dannycraigpirates]

I’m

Perfect case for me - Honey is beaten in the ICH & goes to the CH anyway..... I really can’t see that happening

Front 2 pull miles clear and she’s done in a photo. Perfect scenario for everyone

[Topofthegame2021]

Front 2 pull miles clear and she’s done in a photo. Perfect scenario for everyone

Okay I’ll accept that

[The King Pimm]

I still think the Sky Bet offers of HS to win the ICH and Festival CH at 22/1 is good play and the other bet of HS to win the CH and Consertiesta to win the MH at 50/1 is another good bet at the moment as their prices will both nose dive if HS wins the ICH next weekend

[Istabraq]

Do people really think Concertista is a certainty here ?
Obviously her run in the novice event last year was special but we’ve seen it plenty of times before where novices come into open company and fall short.
Her comparative runs with Black Tears, if taken literally, suggest she’s improved hand over fist but I think it’s safe to say Elliott is protecting a mark for that horse.
It’s a guess up where Honey and Benie end up but if either/both land here Concertista isn’t fav, if both go elsewhere then of course there’s a case for Concertista but while that risk exists I just think she’s terrible value.
Boring stance to take I know but I’m happy to ignore the race until final decs...