Mares Hurdle 2021

[charlie]

Would you have Concertista over Benie Des Dieux as the Mullins number 1 now?

One on the up, the other, likely on the down?

I would yes, but I wouldn't use 'one on the up the other likely on the down' because I have no way of knowing how BDD is, nor if that were true. She runs well fresh, has bags of talent, 10yo doesn't mean decline and on ratings she'd be a better horse than Concertista but, in terms of race planning and a battle with Honeysuckle, I think Concertista is better placed to take on the challenge. She's been campaigned carefully and looks to have more in hand than her current mark of 153. I think the Mares chase will be a more winnable race for BDD than round 2 with Honeysuckle, which would be much much harder. I don't think WPM/RR (or Willies wife) are in the market to give a now 10yo BDD anything other than the 'easiest' most winnable race, even more so after an apparent set back. Given there is zilch easy about Honeysuckle over 2m4f, or even Concertista for that matter, barring accident I think that's how it will play out. Hope I am right!

[ComplyOrDie]

Has anybody any idea why they have entered Paul's Saga for the Stayers but not the Mraes Hurdle?

Probably because her better runs, in G1's, have been over further. She'd get an allowance too. Finished ahead of L'Autonomie twice over the trip. She'd be of interest for sure.

[Kevloaf]

I would yes, but I wouldn't use 'one on the up the other likely on the down' because I have no way of knowing how BDD is, nor if that were true. She runs well fresh, has bags of talent, 10yo doesn't mean decline and on ratings she'd be a better horse than Concertista but, in terms of race planning and a battle with Honeysuckle, I think Concertista is better placed to take on the challenge. She's been campaigned carefully and looks to have more in hand than her current mark of 153. I think the Mares chase will be a more winnable race for BDD than round 2 with Honeysuckle, which would be much much harder. I don't think WPM/RR (or Willies wife) are in the market to give a now 10yo BDD anything other than the 'easiest' most winnable race, even more so after an apparent set back. Given there is zilch easy about Honeysuckle over 2m4f, or even Concertista for that matter, barring accident I think that's how it will play out. Hope I am right!

Yes I hope it plays out that way too.

Most of the season I'd have said Benie would still be my number 1 in a match with Concertista, but I'm starting to sway.

It'll be weird with Honeysuckle if she's beaten in the Irish Champion Hurdle.

They'd almost have to put Concertista fav, as she'd get backed...

but then...

Honeysuckle's optimum is surely this trip, and as the reigning champion, she'd then surely attract support too.... I think it'#s odd they're the same price now, when Honeysuckle has far superior form in the book.

I'm 60/40 Honeysuckle over either....



Sorry TigerRolllllll - missed your post before I replied to this one.

[Kevloaf]

I know I wouldn't and Benie at 5s NRNB in this race is very generous and gets ever more so the longer we hear nothing definite about her going chasing.

Yeah that's as solid an each way bet to nothing as you could dream up.

Even if Honeysuckle and Concertista turned up, you'd fancy your chances of getting your money back.


It's actually so good, that I wonder if she's going to appear

[Spectre]

Probably because her better runs, in G1's, have been over further. She'd get an allowance too. Finished ahead of L'Autonomie twice over the trip. She'd be of interest for sure.

With her 7lb mares allowance her best lifetime RPR achieved in October ahead of L'automnie, is only eclipsed by Paisley Park's win in the Stayers two season ago. If her run ahead of L'automnie had been here in the UK she'd be vying for favouritism. What we don't know is if she'll be allowed to make trhe trip, but I suspect if Easysland does she'll come too. 16/1 each way nrnb is a big price in my opinion.

[Can't Catch Me]

Probably because her better runs, in G1's, have been over further. She'd get an allowance too. Finished ahead of L'Autonomie twice over the trip. She'd be of interest for sure.

Im not sure COD. She looks quite versatile to me and just surprised they haven't even given themselves the option. I'd fancy its easier taking on her own sex over 2m4f than the boys over 3m, even with the allowance in the Stayers myself.

I know her win over l'Autonomie was over 3m but she has plenty of good form over the intermediate distance too.

[Lobos]

Magic of Light looks a big price today to make it a hat trick in the same race.

[Muswell]

Yeah just thought the same

[Muswell]

Fair play roksana did that easy

[Lobos]

Roksanna hugely impressive there. Big plus for Paisley and Thyme Hill. Does she go Mares Hurdle ?

[Kevloaf]

Fair play roksana did that easy

Roksanna hugely impressive there. Big plus for Paisley and Thyme Hill. Does she go Mares Hurdle ?

He's already said they're more likely to go for the Stayers before today, and she's just won at almost 3m on the bridle.


Wrong thread for her based on that I think.

[Winging The Last]

Roksanna hugely impressive there. Big plus for Paisley and Thyme Hill. Does she go Mares Hurdle ?

If she does go Cheltenham it would surely have to be the Stayers, she looks like she needs the 3 miles. Though Dan has mentioned Aintree previously so I would say that she'll bypass for the Liverpool Hurdle now. We'll have to see his after race interview

[Spectre]

Copied from my diary..................

I've just added both Minella Melody, and Floressa (before her run today), at 28/1 each with cashout for the Mares Hurdle.

There are plenty of angles to play the multiples with Honeysuckle, Benie, and even Concertista going elsewhere, but equally there's an angle with this race too. There's a very strong possibility that of the three named only Concertista comes here. The noises are that Honeysuckle's connections are leaning towards the Champion Hurdle (where I still don't like her), and Benie very possibly goes to the Mares Chase, or even likelier in my opinion doesn't make the Festival at all. I concede Dame de Compagnie could come here, but I'd guess this would be third choice, and i have her covered nrnb just in case..

With all that said there is a market full of horses at big prices, and I think there's a reasonable chance that Minella Melody and Floressa go off as second and third favourite for this race. And if that's the case they are mid single figures and not 28/1. I think Concertista wins this race whatever scenario, but I know others are less convinced about her, and there's a bunch of hurdles to be jumped too, so I think the pair of them offer just about the best value in the markets right now, and I make them recommended bets at the current price.

[BookieBasher]

Concertista 2/1 bet365

[Winging The Last]

Concertista 2/1 bet365

Sea of blue all over I see. Has something been said? Some red on Honeysuckle but not much