Injuries

[SharpHat]

Following the generally accepted notion in football that long seasons with masses of games have a build up effect which leads to players developing serious injuries (this was the argument for the winter break after all). Do you think there is any value in the idea that this season could be an opportunity to bet bigger than you otherwise would at this time of year?personally I feel that this heavily truncated season will end up leading to fewer injuries come March, so I have adjusted my antepost bets, betting maybe half a point more than I would in a normal season.

Obviously this is just guess work on my part but it will be interesting to see in March if there are fewer than average horses out injured.

[archie]

Two alternative scenarios:

1. Horses roughed off earlier so may well be back in training earlier if the pre-Christmas schedule is bolstered as has been mooted. They will, therefore, have been on the go longer by the time that the spring festivals come round.

2. The good winter horses will have exactly the same schedule as in previous years if it has been shown to suit them.

[Istabraq]

I think the clock re-sets in the Summer when the NH horses come back from the field, worth also accepting that many top NH horses fon’t run after Cheltenham anyway and the majority that do will have just the one more run so whilst there’s been a huge gap in the racing calendar the lack of racing won’t have altered training for the best horses.

I’ll be using more caution with my Cheltenham 21 AP bets, the impact has been bigger on flat yards/owners so I’m half expecting more flat types to become duel purpose horses as owners try to recoup costs.
We also have to see what the re-modelled schedule throws up.

People will take different approaches but I won’t be hitting many singles other than the few I already have until I’ve seen how the season will look...