Envoi Allen

[Quevega]

Going purely of the betting for all of EA targets for Cheltenham then the Arkle seems very unlikely for him.....although I think he would go very close if he run here.

Very unlikely indeed I reckon.
Gordon almost certain to follow a similar path to Samcro and his other staying chasers.

[ComplyOrDie]

If he jumps as well as he hurdles (and quickly) he'd win the arkle as well I reckon.
Whilst it's guesswork as to how much and at what rate different horses improve.
He seemed to beat the supreme runner up and champion hurdle placed horse, easily enough over 2 miles to me eye.
On the whole he was very quick from A2B when hurdling and this would/could be a big asset over the 13 fences of the arkle.

Valid points Q, though my theory on Royal Bond runners in general is they turn into more staying types, again, this would, in my view, show Abacadabras in extremely good light for what he done in the Supreme. I wonder if the result would have been the same if they both met over 2 miles at the festival. I'm not so sure myself, especially given how long it seemed to take for EA to get going in the Ballymore.

Agree regarding his slick hurdling, especially very early on in the season. He looked very good indeed.

[Liverpoolchamp]

Very unlikely indeed I reckon.
Gordon almost certain to follow a similar path to Samcro and his other staying chasers.

Ye got to be honest aswell though,I’ve gone in deep pretty quickly on the Shishkin (Arkle) Goshen (champion hurdle) double so am praying EA goes somewhere else!

[EnvoyAllen]

Don't know what you're referring to Cod ?

Anyone who types

"people looking for value completely ignored the Fact Envoi Allen was absolutely the one likely winner of the race"
OR
"is an 8-1 loser better than a 4/6 winner ?"
And the last sentence which I can't be bothered to re type.

is definitely being Smug, clever and patronising after the event.

Or where I'm from - being a clever c**t after the event.

My apologies Quevega. I was most definitely not trying to be smug after the event. We all get things (unfortunately in this business, more wrong than right for the majority of us....) - I was just alluding to the fact that, if, and you need a tiny bit of luck onside too, you can deduce in advance as close to possible what a likely starting price for a horse is going to be many months down the line, there is an opportunity to benefit hugely.

I staked several points on Envoi Allen @ 10/1 to win the Ballymore on October 3rd last year, as 365 were offering a price (generally 7 and 8 across the board) that I thought was a) super generous and b) a price that was almost all but certain to shorten significantly. I implored many work colleagues, all of whom have no interest in horse racing, to ‘invest’ in the 10/1 because he was priced up (very rarely happens) wrongly and I told those work colleagues before the end of the first week in October he will be going off 4/6 on. This, I can absolutely assure people who will be reading this, is true.

And even then, I got it wrong.

He went off 4/7.

I stood there 3 furlongs out just when he came round the final bend 5 lengths behind The Big Breakaway and did wonder, I must confess. Alas, he proved the horse I believed him to be.

But I genuinely feel I wasn’t being smug after the event at all. I called it 5 months in advance, and implored my work colleagues to get involved. It was just a funny experience at all the festival preview shows that every pundit wanted to take him on, probably because of his prohibitive price. Well, don’t take him on at that price then, I would suggest. Just because Envoi Allen hadn’t raced since Jan 5th and Sporting John had won comfortably a few weeks before Cheltenham, it seemed everybody was all over Mcmanus’ horse.

I genuinely never believed I was being smug, but just sharp enough to take the right piece of the market at the right time.


(Coincidentally, a decade ago, I also convinced a few people that Meryl Streep was a fantastic price at evens to win best actress at the Oscars for her portrayal of Maggie Thatcher. I believed the evens a few weeks before would become 1/5 on the night. She went off 1/50....)

So, I just try to nail a very good price well in advance. And be almost certain that my choices are the correct ones that are almost certain to shorten. But I genuinely believe that 74/1 treble on Shishkin/Envoi/Easysland should be snapped up quite soon. I think it could be a fantastic ante post treble staring people in the faces. He who dares would be my motto here.

[archie]

There is no comparison between 10/1 5 months before a race and 4/1 9 months before a race.

Trebling the selections also trebles the fudge factor. Even money for an individual horse to turn up is a 7/1 treble for all 3 to turn up.

[EnvoyAllen]

I just genuinely feel that sometimes, even months in advance, single figure prices can still be very good value. That’s all I’m advocating.

[Craigy14]

If he jumps as well as he hurdles (and quickly) he'd win the arkle as well I reckon.
Whilst it's guesswork as to how much and at what rate different horses improve.
He seemed to beat the supreme runner up and champion hurdle placed horse, easily enough over 2 miles to me eye.
On the whole he was very quick from A2B when hurdling and this would/could be a big asset over the 13 fences of the arkle.

Agree with you here Q, his hurdling is well quick enough.

That jump at the last in the ballymore sums it up for me, so efficient and put the race to bed within couple of strides landing.

Also would agree about him being capable of an Arkle or Marsh at this stage. Happy to watch it play out and hope he is as good over fences.

[Saxon Warrior]

It’s quite normal for each seasons Festival winners to be bet much more than other horses from April-November each year, until new form takes shape.

Only a few go back-to-back with Festival wins, and it’s quite normal for them to be short prices.

Last season the likes of Paisley Park, Tiger Roll, Hazel Hill, Envoi Allen, Klassical Dream, ABP, Defi Du Seuil and Altior were prior year winners that attracted a lot of support before the season started, to win again.

Overall, three won for successive years in 2020, Envoi Allen & ABP (of the short ones), and Sire Du Berlais.
The shortest priced horses attempting back-to-back wins (Altior, Paisley Park and Tiger Roll) didn’t succeed.

My own antepost Singles betting strategy doesn’t include backing any horse at shorter than 10/1 prior to the new season getting into gear, which means not backing Envoi Allen & Shishkin in win singles, this time round.

Im not averse to putting them into smaller stakes doubles/multis, most likely with an ‘on the day’ flat season selection.

I think the likelihood is that Envoi Allen could run in the Marsh, if all goes well with him and his season.

I may have him in my book if I can find a suitable flat winner and double them with EA - heres hoping.

[kinloch brae]

I don't think there is too much doubt that Envoi Allen will start off having the Marsh as his target. It is guesswork but I think that race might present the easiest opportunity.

If you believe Elliott then there was a concern about going Ballymore on heavy ground. That seems to imply that they see him as being more speed than stamina. The Ballymore was a falsely run affair in which he ended up showing too much speed for two (much) inferior rivals.

I have backed The Big Getaway for the Marsh but I suspect I have got too carried away with his physique relative to his actual ability. If I could take that bet back then I would gladly do so.

Although they finished in heap at this stage I expect the Albert Bartlett to work out. I see no reason why the front four should not be challenging for Grade 1 honours next season.

Latest Exhibition is one who might have enough toe to drop back in trip. It wouldn't surprise me if he ends up tackling Envoi Allen during the season.

[Faugheen_Machine]

. The Ballymore was a falsely run affair in which he ended up showing too much speed for two (much) inferior rivals.

Falsely run? You mean they went too fast?

At the top of the hill, the Ballymore was 10 seconds quicker than the Coral Cup, and ended 7 seconds quicker.

It was run at a proper gallop which makes EAs performance even more impressive.

[Pendil]

I have backed Envoi Allen to win next years Arkle with B365 @ 14/1 with 95 percent cash out. Gotta keep a close eye on it!

[kinloch brae]

Falsely run? You mean they went too fast?

At the top of the hill, the Ballymore was 10 seconds quicker than the Coral Cup, and ended 7 seconds quicker.

It was run at a proper gallop which makes EAs performance even more impressive.

Not at all. You are comparing a falsely run race with another falsely run race. So many were this year. They only quickened up from around four out.

[Faugheen_Machine]

Below is Simon Rowlands analysis of the Ballymore. It goes with my thinking, in that it was a well run race.

The comparison between the Ballymore and the Coral Cup the following day is somewhat less revealing as the latter was a tactical affair.

The differential was huge in this instance: in the region of 45 lengths (more than half a furlong) by mid-race all the way until the second-last. Thereafter, the Coral Cup principals made up several lengths by the last, and again up the run-in, but were too far adrift to make up more than a little of the leeway.

Was it a case of the novices going too fast or the handicappers going too slow? Well those finishing speed %s show it was a bit of both, but what must not be in doubt is just how stamina-sapping the Ballymore was.

Envoi Allen showed stamina and courage in abundance, but he did get to run closer to par than his main rivals, the connections of all of which are entitled to fancy their chances of finishing closer to – but most likely not in front of – Envoi Allen another day.

As with the Supreme, the abiding message is that the cream of this crop of novice hurdlers is good, very good. They have managed to impress visually from the start, and, more importantly, they have continued to impress compared to the objective benchmark of the clock.

There are exciting times behind us, and, unless I am much mistaken, there are exciting times ahead of us, too.

[Kevloaf]

It’s quite normal for each seasons Festival winners to be bet much more than other horses from April-November each year, until new form takes shape.

Only a few go back-to-back with Festival wins, and it’s quite normal for them to be short prices.

Last season the likes of Paisley Park, Tiger Roll, Hazel Hill, Envoi Allen, Klassical Dream, ABP, Defi Du Seuil and Altior were prior year winners that attracted a lot of support before the season started, to win again.

Overall, three won for successive years in 2020, Envoi Allen & ABP (of the short ones), and Sire Du Berlais.
The shortest priced horses attempting back-to-back wins (Altior, Paisley Park and Tiger Roll) didn’t succeed.

My own antepost Singles betting strategy doesn’t include backing any horse at shorter than 10/1 prior to the new season getting into gear, which means not backing Envoi Allen & Shishkin in win singles, this time round.

Im not averse to putting them into smaller stakes doubles/multis, most likely with an ‘on the day’ flat season selection.

I think the likelihood is that Envoi Allen could run in the Marsh, if all goes well with him and his season.

I may have him in my book if I can find a suitable flat winner and double them with EA - heres hoping.

A very sensible strategy and usually how I'd approach it too.

[Humble Pie]

It’s quite normal for each seasons Festival winners to be bet much more than other horses from April-November each year, until new form takes shape.

Only a few go back-to-back with Festival wins, and it’s quite normal for them to be short prices.

Last season the likes of Paisley Park, Tiger Roll, Hazel Hill, Envoi Allen, Klassical Dream, ABP, Defi Du Seuil and Altior were prior year winners that attracted a lot of support before the season started, to win again.

Overall, three won for successive years in 2020, Envoi Allen & ABP (of the short ones), and Sire Du Berlais.
The shortest priced horses attempting back-to-back wins (Altior, Paisley Park and Tiger Roll) didn’t succeed.

My own antepost Singles betting strategy doesn’t include backing any horse at shorter than 10/1 prior to the new season getting into gear, which means not backing Envoi Allen & Shishkin in win singles, this time round.

Im not averse to putting them into smaller stakes doubles/multis, most likely with an ‘on the day’ flat season selection.

I think the likelihood is that Envoi Allen could run in the Marsh, if all goes well with him and his season.

I may have him in my book if I can find a suitable flat winner and double them with EA - heres hoping.

We all have our individual strategies/ plans , some never change and are rigid others more flexible , so I checked where I stood as I thought and still think the above v v sound reasoning .
I’ve been rigid to the exception of Shishkin ( wish I’d gone in heavier on the 8’s ) and Envoi Allen , I don’t regret either.

Two horses that do and will feature heavily in my multiple plans

I adopted the same strategy with Paisley Park and Tiger Roll. and Hazel Hill ( too short as singles )last year and concentrated on multiples
Each to their own but to me v sound reasoning SW and proved profitable