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Very interesting to read everyone’s thoughts on Envoi Allen’s single figure prices, and other horses mentioned in a similar breath on here.
Surely guys and girls, the very,very large majority of the odds we look at ante post for Cheltenham for next year, are just about right, as they generally always are? The reason Envoi Allen was the odds on horse that people didn’t really want to touch the week before the festival was because they believed there was better value out there? Which completely ignored the fact Envoi was absolutely the one likely winner of the race, even before it was run? Is an 8/1 loser more profitable than a 4/6 winner? Or is taking the 10/1 on Envoi 5 months in advance when it was 90% certain he’d go the Ballymore route a clearly sensible financial investment when we all knew before he’d popped over his first hurdle of the season he was a beast of a horse.....
The 4/1’s available at present on both Shishkin (Arkle) and Envoi Allen (Marsh) and 2/1 on Easysland (Tiger Roll might just be left for the big one at Aintree I genuinely feel confident about) make a 74/1 treble currently. If all 3 horses are fit and their seasons progress the way their trainers are hoping, it is with a reasonable amount of foreseeing, that all 3 horses will go off odds on. And if, for argument sake, all 3 horses went off 5/6, you’ve got yourself a 5/1 treble instead of one paying out 15 times more than that at this current moment.
So value, for each and every one of us, is very much in how we personally see it. Those single figure prices on the aforementioned horses could look bargains on the day. He who dares, for sure.
Envoi Allen was coming up against different formlines and potentially improving horses in his Ballymore Win, and so many would have perceived there to be value in looking at other options. Other bankers in the run up to Cheltenham were largely running against horses they'd beaten easily before.
So I disagree with this,
The rest of the paragraph is very Poor, very very poor. Indeed.
It's easy to be clever,smug and patronising after the event.
I should know.
90% chance of going to the Ballymore, though you wouldn't think with some members arguments for the Supreme
It was a carbon copy of how Samcro's ante post price went, but others preferred the Supreme because the odds, surprise surprise, were a lot more generous.
Gordon (and some other trainers) always chucks out the option of the Supreme for their blatant Ballymore runners. Wouldn't matter if it actually come up heavy either.
With regard to Q's 'clever, smug or patronising after the event' line, this was said way back before the festival took place, and I wasn't alone.
I'm not as confident about it being the Marsh as I was the Ballymore, as can see the RSA being a definite option, but I'd still side with the Marsh currently.
"people looking for value completely ignored the Fact Envoi Allen was absolutely the one likely winner of the race"
OR
"is an 8-1 loser better than a 4/6 winner ?"
And the last sentence which I can't be bothered to re type.
is definitely being Smug, clever and patronising after the event.
Or where I'm from - being a clever c**t after the event.
I was pre-empting what you had previously posted about another post, as it was obvious he was going for the Ballymore, and that may come across smug, or after timing (which it was neither), to some. So posted this with regards to the line you wrote, not specifically that it would be you replying.
"people looking for value completely ignored the Fact Envoi Allen was absolutely the one likely winner of the race"
OR
"is an 8-1 loser better than a 4/6 winner ?"
And the last sentence which I can't be bothered to re type.
is definitely being Smug, clever and patronising after the event.
Or where I'm from - being a clever c**t after the event.
I’d also refer them to the Hugh Taylor and Kevin Blake Q and A that we discussed on the Flat racing part of the forum. Certainly an even less strong argument this year considering the number of odds on hot pots that got beat
I was pre-empting what you had previously posted about another post,
as it was obvious he was going for the Ballymore, and that may come across smug, or after timing (which it was neither), to some. So posted this with regards to the line you wrote, not specifically that it would be you replying.
Too defensive?
What's that mean ? - not the best constructed sentence I've seen.
What post in particular ?
Do you know what pre-empting means ?
The endless debate's on which race is far from my thought process in any of the above comments.
What's that mean ? - not the best constructed sentence I've seen.
What post in particular ?
Do you know what pre-empting means ?
The endless debate's on which race is far from my thought process in any of the above comments.
Pre-empting - To take action prior to something potentially happening.
Basically it wasn't directed at you personally, but your line 'It's easy to be clever, smug and patronising after the event'.
Included it in my post to ensure members knew what I had said was said prior to the actual race and not after the event. Not specifically you, which is why I didn't quote your post.
I feel like you've taken it personally, and that may be down to the way I worded my original post
Last edited by ComplyOrDie; 24 May 2020, 02:12 PM.
Pre-empting - To take action prior to something potentially happening.
Basically it wasn't directed at you personally, but your line 'It's easy to be clever, smug and patronising after the event'.
Included it in my post to ensure members knew what I had said was said prior to the actual race and not after the event. Not specifically you, which is why I didn't quote your post.
I feel like you've taken it personally, and that may be down to the way I worded my original post
Not taken personally, just struggling with the relevance of your original post.
Your original comment just seems to entirely focus on the race he ended up running in and nothing else.
That aspect of what he said was of little concern to me, and therefore I did not refer to this specifically at all.
However, you appeared to suggest my disdain for the original comments was all about the Ballymore vs Supreme (yawn) argument.
When the opposite is true.
And whilst your pre-empting definition is correct, I'm not sure you used it in the right context.
Cod -
I think I get the original post you made now.
It just seemed out of sync, as you picked up on the one sentence I had least issue with.
I now understand you were just concurring with EnvoyAllen on the thought process about the long term target 5 months out being fairly certain.
And I understand the defensive comment (using my quote) in case anyone came back at you with similar comments to mine.
Does anyone feel Envoi Allens PTP win over 2m 4f will have any relevance at all with regards to a target at the festival?
Allowing for physical and mental development the arguement could be made that he'd step up on that and 3m would easily be within his grasp also.
That aside, and with the exception of KB, whose thoughts seem known already, does anyone feel any novice chase would see Envoi Allen out of his comfort zone?
Personally I think the Arkle, but interested to hear thoughts of everyone else.
Does anyone feel Envoi Allens PTP win over 2m 4f will have any relevance at all with regards to a target at the festival?
Allowing for physical and mental development the arguement could be made that he'd step up on that and 3m would easily be within his grasp also.
That aside, and with the exception of KB, whose thoughts seem known already, does anyone feel any novice chase would see Envoi Allen out of his comfort zone?
Personally I think the Arkle, but interested to hear thoughts of everyone else.
If he jumps as well as he hurdles (and quickly) he'd win the arkle as well I reckon.
Whilst it's guesswork as to how much and at what rate different horses improve.
He seemed to beat the supreme runner up and champion hurdle placed horse, easily enough over 2 miles to me eye.
On the whole he was very quick from A2B when hurdling and this would/could be a big asset over the 13 fences of the arkle.
If he jumps as well as he hurdles (and quickly) he'd win the arkle as well I reckon.
Whilst it's guesswork as to how much and at what rate different horses improve.
He seemed to beat the supreme runner up and champion hurdle placed horse, easily enough over 2 miles to me eye.
On the whole he was very quick from A2B when hurdling and this would/could be a big asset over the 13 fences of the arkle.
Going purely of the betting for all of EA targets for Cheltenham then the Arkle seems very unlikely for him.....although I think he would go very close if he run here.
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