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Originally posted by Eggs
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The test of the stayers hurdle should be right up his street
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Looked a dour stayer who got done for gears by sams profile
The test of the stayers hurdle should be right up his street -
Twice now he's been done by Sams Profile, including his P2P.Originally posted by FinalFurlong91 View PostComment
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Think the Stayers is the only race Diol Kerr is entered in ? Could he go Pertempts?? Would have to qualify obviously.Comment
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Yeah, he needs to qualify, I got him priced up at 33's (not sure if that is still available though?) a while back, thinking that may be the route. If they were a little more shrewd he could have gone there absolutely chucked in but think they've probably shown their hand after today.Originally posted by Lobos View PostComment
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Agree. Probably have to be Stayers or nothing now. I've got him TWAR but can't see him even placing in the Stayers.Originally posted by ComplyOrDie View PostComment
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Already looking a hot race is the Stayers so I'd be surprised if this is their target.Originally posted by Lobos View Post
One more Pertemps qualifier (Punchestown) so worth checking entries...Comment
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....looks like Sam’s Profile heading here;
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No reason to suggest Diol Ker won't be going to the stayers either.
When they entered him they said he might not be good enough but they would run him in the Galmoy and see.
And he's just blown any sort of mark for the pertemps.
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Are either good enough to be involved?Originally posted by Quevega View Post
I don't think so, even at big prices.
The Diol Ker 'thing' seems to based on beating Monkfish at 2m4f and hoping he's also improved as much up in trip, which being beaten by Sam's Profile doesn't prove.
Sam's Profile's best bits of form are being beaten by Battleoverdoyen and Reserve Tank before today.
Sixshooter in 3rd today might be something to cling to, but him 3rd to Sire Du Berlais was over a trip that wouldn't be SDB's best...so wouldn't take that too literally either (given he's beaten further by these two today)
I don't see the appeal with either really, even at 'big' prices. I don't think they've even good good place chances.... as Cole Harden and Lisnager Oscar prove, anything can happen, but I wasn't of the opinion this was even a Stayers Hurdle trial beforehand....(only comment I made was about My Sister Sarah for a handicap) and no reason to change my mind.
I have just checked and Sam's Profile is 25/1 and Diol Ker best priced 40/1 - which I don't think is value for either.Last edited by Kevloaf; 28 January 2021, 10:19 PM.Comment
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The desperate ground can confuse things as well, probably would have seen different race on normal festivals ground. Although of cousins possible we could gave heavy in March.
course!!Comment
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Anyone fancy Itchy Feet to run well tomorrow? I don't think he'll beat PP, but I am hoping he gives him a scare. I take the view that had IF been campaigned over hurdles this season he'd have achieved a rating higher than 155, so PP giving him 6lbs wont be an easy task, nor will it be easy for other horses in the race giving him weight. I know its a bit of a revival mission, but I'd be fairly confident there wont be many horses finishing stronger than IF at the business end of the race, such is my confidence in him staying 3m. I'd bite arms off for a length loss to PP tbh, then on to this in March!Comment
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They've got a better chance than Bacardy's & Great White Shark.Originally posted by Kevloaf View Post
And they've not had a go before.
But are either capable of beating the top 2 in the market, probably not, but that's the same for the rest of the field IMO.
If we get a mad gallop, it's the biggest fittest heart that wins.Comment
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I wrote this the night before I came down with the virus so a very few number of views may have seen this on my site if they were passing, but I haven't plugged or put in a thread anywhere.. and may be of interest
A multiple part series looking at at French recruits moving across into UK and Irish National hunt Racing.
Paul’s Saga (FR)- Age: 7 (Foaled April 23rd, 2014)
- Sex: Bay Mare
- Sire: Martaline
- Dam: Humoriste (FR)
- Trainer: D Cottin
- Owner: Gerald Laroche
Paul’s Saga is a sister to the very good Siljan’s Saga (Sagamix), winner of the Grand Prix de Deauville, Prix Madame Jean Couturie, Prix Joubert and several times placed at the highest level, for a total of nearly €1.3m in earnings.
In the Stayers Hurdle at the Cheltenham Festival there is one entry from France, Paul’s Saga (David Cottin). The seven-year-old mare landed the Grande Course de Haies d’Auteuil (French Champion Hurdle) in October, has been mentioned recently on a variety of Cheltenham related podcasts and You tube based shows, Her trainer landed a Cheltenham festival winner last season with Easysland, but what has Paul’s Saga achieved herself to date?
She started on the flat where she won 3 races, and has since mixed it between hurdles and fences, her first graded victory was he GRANDE COURSE DE HAIES DE PRINTEMPS HANDICAP HURDLE (Group 3) in April 2019. In November 2019 she won the PRIX LEON OLRY-ROEDERER HURDLE (Group 2). She is yet to win, in 4 chase starts.
Paul’s Saga’s most notable win came in the Grande Course de Haies d’Auteuil this is a race previously won by such stars as Questerabad, Thousand Stars, Gemix, De Bon Coeur, and Benie Des Dieux, and she had a star herself to contend with, L’Autonomie who had racked up a very impressive sequence of 8 Graded wins on the bounce, and seemed to be pretty unbeatable.
L’Autonomie strode on into the lead in her customary fashion, jumped notably right throughout, which became worse as the race went on and was very difficult for Jockey Angelo Zuilani to manage, she still opened up a lead, Paul’s Saga, went on the attack between the last two obstacles and took the upper hand at the last hedge as she was able to take the support of the rail left to her by L’Autonomie to to win by 3/4 length. The partial timing system shows that the strides of L’Autonomie shortened early on the run in, while her rival has increased speed and stayed on continuously from the home straight, all the way to the line. This was no real suprise to myself, as L’Autonomie is a keen horse, who until recently, i would have had reservations about her at the intermediate trip, let alone the championship distance of 3m 1f 77y, you cant knock the winner Paul’s Saga , for the bare result, as the figures show, she stayed out the trip very well, however i do think that was clealy due to L’Autonomie being a non stayer, rather than Paul’s Saga being a superstar.
“I had planned to sit mid-pack but I could hear the English jockeys at the start all saying they weren’t going to go on,” said Nabet. “I really rode my mare for herself and thought we were running for a place rather than to beat L’Autonomie.”
“Last time, the problem wasn’t running in a steeplechase: she just wasn’t in the race. From the start, she didn’t keep up. Today, with the Australian blinkers, she was in on it from the beginning. I didn’t use this artifice in training, we put it on him for the race. We had worked hard in the morning, but it was not demonstrative. She had the terrain and the distance for her. We thought she’dgo to the stud if she ran badly. But now she should keep going! At first we thought we would go to Cheltenham and finish his career there, before entering the stud. So we could prepare the Stayers Hurdle (Gr1) of Cheltenham”
Paul’s Saga backed up her win shortly after in the PRIX CARMARTHEN HURDLE (Group 3) where she beat Beau Gosse who was a good juvenile, however until very recently had 2 years out through injury, and had won a couple of minor races at very short prices on his comeback trail, the 3rd Galop Marin, is a solid yet exposed regular performer in graded races, However, he managed to turn the tables on Paul’s Saga next time out in the GRAND PRIX D’AUTOMNE HURDLE (Group 1) beating her by 1/2L
How would i evaluate her chances in the stayers Hurdle?
I believe what she has achieved over hurdles this season is via consistency, and the lack of a staying star, in my opinion it would be foolish to see her beating L’autonomie and thinking that makes her a top quality star in her own right. The horses she has beaten, if you rightly take the non stayer L’autonomie out of the equation, are Not of a Grade 1 Championship Race standard, would be 3 figure prices, and well held in the Stayers Hurdle at the Cheltenham Festival.
The highest odds available of 25/1, for the race in question, in my opinion are about right, with the shorter odds, I believe, being less than generous.
She is not completely without a chance, however i believe she would be ultimately well held by the likes of Thyme Hill. Therefore Paul’s Saga would not be a bet that I am personally looking to place.
Even so, Paul’s Saga is still a very nice horse, and an interesting and welcome addition to these shores.
The Journey From France
Series, where we are looking at French recruits moving into UK and Irish National hunt Racing
Scooby91https://scooby91horseracingtips.com/
Use code "FJ" in your sign up name for bonus content!Comment
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I like him a lot, and hope they get the race rearranged soon. I think he’s value at current prices.....33 or 20 nrnb. If he runs against PP in the cleeve I can see those prices going.Originally posted by charlie View PostComment
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