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What you want is both mares to turn up and smash the match bet, I’d happily hit Benie 1/2 to beat Roksana...
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What price do you think they would put her up NRNB ?? Assuming both SDB and Fury Road run well at Xmas, I'd think maybe 6/1? I'd certainly have a nice lump on her at that price. Not sure this is the least likely target now either. I personally think the Mares Hurdle is on the short side for her now and that with her being so fragile maybe they won't risk her over fences. That leaves the Stayers where Mullins doesn't currently have a runner with a chance ? Benie would have a seriously good chance if she came here . I make her 4lbs clear of Paisley Park on official ratings taking into account her Mares allowance ??Originally posted by Kevloaf View Post
There is literally zero percent chance I'd have mentioned backing her without NRNB ....
Least likely of the 3 targets IMO, but that might make her a better NRNB price....and if she did run (and looking at the 'line through Roksana') she should be fav
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Nobody knows what state bdd will be in when she returns. She’ll be a 10 year old come Cheltenham and I would expect her to be regressing. Mares also just tend to go completely all at once. I wouldn’t fancy her here against a bunch of improving horses.Comment
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I'd have guessed 5/1. I'd back her (and will) at that price each way NRNB or anything bigger.Originally posted by Lobos View Post
I'm not adament she's better than Paisley Park/Thyme Hill over 3m, but I'd back her at 5/1 each way as a bet to nothing as I'd have her fucking walloping Sire Du Berlais getting 7lbs.
It's not like she'd be an each way "good thing", I just know I'd fancy her to be in the mix and as I feel it's her optimum trip I know I'll back her. It's not that I can't see her beaten, I just know I'll feel like not backing her at 5/1 or bigger NRNB would make me feel I'd missed out.
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I backed Roksana today as the value bet against the the 2 geldings. Feel she had the optimum today in 3ml on heavy ground and can't see her improving from that at CheltenhamComment
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I had an average day today but one bright spot was having Roksana 3 places 1.9 and 4 places 1.63.Originally posted by Pendil View Post
Come March I’ll probably look to have similar plays on her at better rates....Comment
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Don’t think it’s anything to do with being hipsterOriginally posted by Kevloaf View Post
Yeah, and if Thymne Hill wins, Fury Road will look like the hispters sexy bet as his price relative to TH's will look 'big' and I reckon he'll gain momentum despite TH actually showing it.
I think I'll end up backing whichever of the two loses today - hoping for an over reaction
Fury Road beat TH fair and square and has shown he still has a pulse in winning his opener this season.
If the race was tomorrow everyone would top FR at the prices so why wouldn’t you antepost?Comment
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That's exactly my point?Originally posted by Hurricane fly View Post
Everyone would tip it, I'm saying it's going to be a popular bet, but one we have already worked out.
The hipsters will be tipping it.
That's not a bad thing
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I’ve watched the race again and it is just a great watch! If ever there was a race or moment to get people into the national hunt game, it was yesterday’s race.
I know ITV go overboard with the story re Gemmill etc but things like that and sport in general are what make people happy!
In terms of Cheltenham, PP isn’t one I’ve covered as a single and im kicking myself and he is now well and truly back with a bang. I think a lot of credit is due to Emma Lavelle as well. What a great piece of training to mind the horse and get him back to his best. Thyme Hill lost very little in defeat, you only have to look at the post race angle to see how angry Dicky was with himself.
In such a shit time where everyone is struggling (myself included) these sort of races and things to look forward do give hope that the distant future will be brighter.
P.S massive Hearts fan and we have the Scottish cup final from last season today. I will be hammered by kick off with my Phillips perfect draft pourer of Stella
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To think Gordy called this division weak at the start of the season! Probably arguably the strongest now with the contenders, if they all line up. That was an amazing finish yesterday, unreal staying finish from PP. Wouldnt rule either of them out, was too cautious to stick much on him when he was 7s or 8s as didnt know how he would perform after his heart problems. But having won it before, albeit not as strong as this years (imo) he is the one to beat. But FR, SDB and Thyme Hill among a few outsiders this could be a great watch, a race im looking forward to most now, which is fitting as my namesake made me really fall in love even more with the sport dominating this race!
Ps: Hopefully Liam Boyce can bang the winner for you against Celtic today! Craigy14Comment
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I’ll take anything today, Boycey would be immense haha!Originally posted by Big Bucks View PostComment
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It could all come down to how Dicky decides to ride TH.. Does he go later or even earlier, does he stalk PP (not good in my opinion).. Did TH idle front? Only dicky will truly know.. But what a fantastic rivalry we've got to look forward too...Comment
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A great race yesterday. I dont think Johnson needs to beat himself up about the resultOriginally posted by Birds Nest View PostComment
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Fair and square? Think you should watch their trips again.Originally posted by Hurricane fly View PostComment
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What where TH went for a gap he didn’t have the speed for and got closed out?
That’s fair and square, Monkfish took the same risk and powered through the gap.Comment
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