Stayers Hurdle 2021

[Rooster Booster]

It’s a while since I have felt really buzzed about the stayers this far in advance. The decision to keep TH and FR over hurdles has spiced things up significantly for me. Watching today’s race real time (and I haven’t rewatched yet) I was left with the impression that two factors were instrumental in TH defeat that MAY be addressable. Firstly as others have mentioned he was a little too free (not for the first time)which was far from ideal in those conditions. Secondly my in running impression was he was jumping too high and spending too long in the air at some of his hurdles. I think these two potential future upsides would have me favour TH a fraction over PP.

[Bigfish]

My overall impression was that it were the Stayers Hd. C/D PP would beat Thyme Hill .

[Rooster Booster]

I do not trust my ability to have a strong view over suitability of the track. I would suspect most if surveyed would vote in favour of PP. I could not say this with any confidence and am happy to park this variable in the I don’t know or neutral category.

[Quevega]

I do not trust my ability to have a strong view over suitability of the track. I would suspect most if surveyed would vote in favour of PP. I could not say this with any confidence and am happy to park this variable in the I don’t know or neutral category.

Yep, they are closely matched, and IMO on most occasions the Cheltenham track and likely pace would suit PP more than Thyme Hill.
And I think you're half right with the weaknesses you pointed out in Thyme Hill, except there is no guarantee they/he will improve these two aspects.

I have watched several pundits and respected ex jockeys analyse the finish of the bartlett and how 'unlucky' Thyme Hill was. The drone view was very interesting and there is no doubt he got his path partially blocked on more than one occasion.

However, I watched to see how much ground he actually made up once he did get a clear run - and he didn't gain any/much from what I can see. And didn't gain much beyond the line either.

Momentum in a staying race is everything though and he can count himself unlucky, but for me to be totally convinced he was the best horse on the day, I would have wanted to see him gain ground very near the end.

The big advantage Paisley Park has, and other great stayers have is their ability to be doing there best work near the end of the race and not slowing down, actually looking like they are picking up. Especially up the hill at Cheltenham in a championship paced race. Quevega, Big Bucks, Inglis Drever all had this ability and I believe Paisley Park is in a similar vein.

It's the travelling behind the bridle bit that does it, and not being so keen.

[Bigfish]

Yep all that . He wins

[EnvoyAllen]

Predicted this....




As we've just discussed though, BDD (NRNB) will be another obvious angle if she's a fair price.




I really enjoyed that race today, I am happy to have both onside and disappointed I don't have more on either but I'd have sided with TH today with that late money

It shouldn’t have been rocket science to have either of these on side throughout the Summer, surely?

Thyme Hill was freely available at 14/1 and Paisley Park at 8/1.

They really, really, really shouldn’t be difficult prices to mull over months and seasons away from the festival,nor decisions for punters to take, nor make.

[Quevega]

It shouldn’t have been rocket science to have either of these on side throughout the Summer, surely?

Thyme Hill was freely available at 14/1 and Paisley Park at 8/1.

They really, really, really shouldn’t be difficult prices to mull over months and seasons away from the festival,nor decisions for punters to take, nor make.

I kind of agree that they were fairly obvious contenders.
But, Paisley Park did have a health doubt, and the thyme hill form had not been tested, and he'd not been totally ruled out of chasing either.

Although this heart thing that so many horses seem to be getting diagnosed with seems a little suspect to me.
It appears to be more common simply because they are looking for it.
So I'm not certain that it's much of a problem in most cases, although I suspect some may be more severe/different.

I'd certainly like to think it's not just them finding that the heart is beating faster, cos if that's the case I suffer from the same condition every time I get off the settee.
Or watch countdown.

[charlie]

If I was Olly Murphy I'd be sending Itchy Feet here. Today proved two things. 1. he jumps for shit over a fence 2. he has some engine. He's only 6 so if they revert back they have plenty of time to go back over fences.

[TheRowebot]

If I was Olly Murphy I'd be sending Itchy Feet here. Today proved two things. 1. he jumps for shit over a fence 2. he has some engine. He's only 6 so if they revert back they have plenty of time to go back over fences.

Olly was live on SSR yesterday and I think he was saying exactly that (forgive me if it wasn’t this horse, I flicked over half way through)..

[Istabraq]

Does no-one think the winner stole it and Gavin Sheehan asked his horse to race too late in the piece ?

[charlie]

Does no-one think the winner stole it and Gavin Sheehan asked his horse to race too late in the piece ?

Definitely not IMO. I thought he did phenomenally well to coax him into the race and deliver him when he did. He was hitting fences and making mistakes all way round. Over hurdles he'd be a force to be reckoned with IMO

[Quevega]

Does no-one think the winner stole it and Gavin Sheehan asked his horse to race too late in the piece ?

It was an odd race all round.
Like all three jockeys were riding their own races.
Jacob going so wide was annoying me, as was the camera angle up the horses nostrils for the whole way.
And yes, Sheehan was overly patient for no apparent reason, as the jumping mistakes were earlier in the piece.

[Quevega]

Definitely not IMO. I thought he did phenomenally well to coax him into the race and deliver him when he did. He was hitting fences and making mistakes all way round. Over hurdles he'd be a force to be reckoned with IMO

Might as well have a pop over fences for three miles first, then possibly have a go at the stayers, but he looks limited now over any discipline. IMO

[charlie]

It was an odd race all round.
Like all three jockeys were riding their own races.
Jacob going so wide was annoying me, as was the camera angle up the horses nostrils for the whole way.
And yes, Sheehan was overly patient for no apparent reason, as the jumping mistakes were earlier in the piece.

The mistakes at every other fence were the reason.

If Sheehan had pushed and asked him after each mistake to get in the race then he'd have expended more energy and would not have finished as strongly.

[Rooster Booster]

Yep, they are closely matched, and IMO on most occasions the Cheltenham track and likely pace would suit PP more than Thyme Hill.
And I think you're half right with the weaknesses you pointed out in Thyme Hill, except there is no guarantee they/he will improve these two aspects.

I have watched several pundits and respected ex jockeys analyse the finish of the bartlett and how 'unlucky' Thyme Hill was. The drone view was very interesting and there is no doubt he got his path partially blocked on more than one occasion.

However, I watched to see how much ground he actually made up once he did get a clear run - and he didn't gain any/much from what I can see. And didn't gain much beyond the line either.

Momentum in a staying race is everything though and he can count himself unlucky, but for me to be totally convinced he was the best horse on the day, I would have wanted to see him gain ground very near the end.

The big advantage Paisley Park has, and other great stayers have is their ability to be doing there best work near the end of the race and not slowing down, actually looking like they are picking up. Especially up the hill at Cheltenham in a championship paced race. Quevega, Big Bucks, Inglis Drever all had this ability and I believe Paisley Park is in a similar vein.

It's the travelling behind the bridle bit that does it, and not being so keen.

Completely agree there is no guarantee. It’s just for me with such fine margins it is this potential upside that is tipping the balance in TH favour. FR is another matter altogether and the FR v TH assessment is another fascinating variable. I hope FR impresses nto and we have a compellingly fascinating contest on our hands.