Stayers Hurdle 2021

[ryanh97]

Fury Road a NR today

[Kevloaf]

It’s fair to pick me up on that Kev, but I don’t for one second think Thomas Darby will win the Stayers. He’s a nice one to have in the book at a value price if we lose a few along the way though. I’d imagine most likely I’ll be nicking a few quid by laying him in the lead up though.

I'm on at 66/1 but have been tempted to take the 80/1 as a seperate project to do that with.

Fury Road a NR today

Disappointing for the race. He at least might have made her work quite hard?

[FinalFurlong91]

She has way too many gears for fury road

Id have been surprised if he got her off the bridle over 2m4f

[Kevloaf]

She has way too many gears for fury road

Id have been surprised if he got her off the bridle over 2m4f

Yeah you' could well be right.

[Can't Catch Me]

It does sound daft.

I hate these brash "can't have it at all" statements.

try not to take this personally, as I am just twisting your nipples, as a long term and vauled contributor, but how freaking silly is that sentence? You literally cannot fathom the reigning champion winning again?


What if things played out like last year? That basis alone means its insane to declare you "can't have it".... it's happened before, so why CAN'T it happen again?

Your statement takes the price out of it as well. If Lisnager Oscar was a billion to one, you wouldn't back it, 'cos you "can't have it".



It's a stupid statement and whenever someone says it, I feel like they're a moron


Big love CCM, I hope you take this in the way its intended

Certainly won't take it personally Kev so don't worry! I personally think a moronic comment would have been 'Lisnagar Oscar can't win'. I hate those comments too. But thats slightly different from my 'I can't have him' stance. At the end of the day, you have to come off the fence and take a stand on every horse in every race. If you start saying so and so 'might' win, and so and so 'could' win, its going to be very hard. My approach is a bit different from yours and if i was having 7 or 8 in a race I might cover him as an option. I will aim to have no more than 3 or 4 runners in each race, which means there will be plenty of very good horse I can't have in my book and I need to rule out.

Also, there are some horses that Im happy to leave alone and if they win, they win. He is a perfect example of this for me. As I said, he's very inconsistent, I don't rate his form that highly and I think it was a poor renewal last year. Im more than happy to not back him and if he wins just take it on the chin and say I got it wrong.

In a similar way there are also quite a few trainers who's horse I wont back. Like Colin Tizzard! Don't ever back his for Cheltenham and if one pops up and wins the fair enough, but overall I think I will be better off long term just leaving them out. You might say that's daft as you can't say he wont win a race at Cheltenham ever, and it depends on the horse. Which of course, I can understand. But thats my approach and its served me well!

[SharpHat]

Certainly won't take it personally Kev so don't worry! I personally think a moronic comment would have been 'Lisnagar Oscar can't win'. I hate those comments too. But thats slightly different from my 'I can't have him' stance. At the end of the day, you have to come off the fence and take a stand on every horse in every race. If you start saying so and so 'might' win, and so and so 'could' win, its going to be very hard. My approach is a bit different from yours and if i was having 7 or 8 in a race I might cover him as an option. I will aim to have no more than 3 or 4 runners in each race, which means there will be plenty of very good horse I can't have in my book and I need to rule out.

Also, there are some horses that Im happy to leave alone and if they win, they win. He is a perfect example of this for me. As I said, he's very inconsistent, I don't rate his form that highly and I think it was a poor renewal last year. Im more than happy to not back him and if he wins just take it on the chin and say I got it wrong.

In a similar way there are also quite a few trainers who's horse I wont back. Like Colin Tizzard! Don't ever back his for Cheltenham and if one pops up and wins the fair enough, but overall I think I will be better off long term just leaving them out. You might say that's daft as you can't say he wont win a race at Cheltenham ever, and it depends on the horse. Which of course, I can understand. But thats my approach and its served me well!

Totally agree. If we all just said each horse has a chance the forum would be pointless, you've got to take a stand when you fancy (or don't fancy)one, even if it strays into hyperbole occasionally

[Eireman]

I think Ronald Pump is now the value bet for the Stayers market and is in fact overpriced. Obviously I am a massive fan of the horse but yesterday his hurdling was to me the best it has been either this season or last season. I personally feel he would have won the stayers last March had he not smashed through so many hurdles on the way round. He clearly struggled going back and forth between fences and hurdles last season and it potentially cost him the race. This season he looks even better for staying over hurdles and there has definitely been a noticeable improvement to me in his hurdling from the stayers to Navan to Yesterday.

The way at which he came home yesterday also makes me really question if Sire Du Berlais would have been able to beat him that day in Navan and if Ronald Pump did beat him then Sire Du Berlais most likely would have been labelled as not good enough rather than Ronald Pump get the credit for beating him. I know it was over a shorter trip than ideal for either but it showed me that Ronald Pump can potentially beat some of the really fancied horses for this years renewal.

Lisnagar Oscar is showing similar form to what he did pre Christmas last season. There is a chance he will then do what he done last year and run much better after Christmas. Point being that he at best only looks as good as he did last year come March. Ronald Pump particularly yesterday showed a clear improvement to me on his runs last year and with potentially another run or two before March could be a much much better horse for this years stayers having being campaigned over hurdles all season and not losing so much momentum and ground next March as he did last March. I would have Ronald Pump to reverse that form with Lisnagar Oscar after a better round of hurdling so at the very least I give him a chance of placing but also think he will be bang there come the home turn finishing strongly and think he is a better chance of winning than his 20/1 odds suggest.

[Kevloaf]

I think Ronald Pump is now the value bet for the Stayers market and is in fact overpriced. Obviously I am a massive fan of the horse but yesterday his hurdling was to me the best it has been either this season or last season. I personally feel he would have won the stayers last March had he not smashed through so many hurdles on the way round. He clearly struggled going back and forth between fences and hurdles last season and it potentially cost him the race. This season he looks even better for staying over hurdles and there has definitely been a noticeable improvement to me in his hurdling from the stayers to Navan to Yesterday.

The way at which he came home yesterday also makes me really question if Sire Du Berlais would have been able to beat him that day in Navan and if Ronald Pump did beat him then Sire Du Berlais most likely would have been labelled as not good enough rather than Ronald Pump get the credit for beating him. I know it was over a shorter trip than ideal for either but it showed me that Ronald Pump can potentially beat some of the really fancied horses for this years renewal.

Lisnagar Oscar is showing similar form to what he did pre Christmas last season. There is a chance he will then do what he done last year and run much better after Christmas. Point being that he at best only looks as good as he did last year come March. Ronald Pump particularly yesterday showed a clear improvement to me on his runs last year and with potentially another run or two before March could be a much much better horse for this years stayers having being campaigned over hurdles all season and not losing so much momentum and ground next March as he did last March. I would have Ronald Pump to reverse that form with Lisnagar Oscar after a better round of hurdling so at the very least I give him a chance of placing but also think he will be bang there come the home turn finishing strongly and think he is a better chance of winning than his 20/1 odds suggest.

I think that's a good case.

Do we know what his next target is?

[Eireman]

I think that's a good case.

Do we know what his next target is?

He has an entry in the Christmas hurdle at Leopardstown on Dec 28th. Think he will likely take that up and he runs very well around Leopardstown. Came second there last Christmas in a handicap hurdle of near top weight again switching back from a run over fences.

Will likely take on both Fury Road and Sire Du Berlais in that. He wins that will likely go maybe 8/1? So people may even prefer to wait till then to add him as it's such a competitive race he won't go much shorter than that surely even if he does win. I just think at 20/1 he has already shown improvement in his hurdling which is what cost him the race last season for me and is now the value in the market.

[Kevloaf]

He has an entry in the Christmas hurdle at Leopardstown on Dec 28th. Think he will likely take that up and he runs very well around Leopardstown. Came second there last Christmas in a handicap hurdle of near top weight again switching back from a run over fences.

Will likely take on both Fury Road and Sire Du Berlais in that. He wins that will likely go maybe 8/1? So people may even prefer to wait till then to add him as it's such a competitive race he won't go much shorter than that surely even if he does win. I just think at 20/1 he has already shown improvement in his hurdling which is what cost him the race last season for me and is now the value in the market.

I think I may well add him before he next runs, I just wanted a time scale - no reason his price will change between now and the week prior to that run.

Usually I end up adding before then. Basically, I like him, I think you've made a good case and I probably will add, just not in a rush to until next entry/declaration?

[Eireman]

I think I may well add him before he next runs, I just wanted a time scale - no reason his price will change between now and the week prior to that run.

Usually I end up adding before then. Basically, I like him, I think you've made a good case and I probably will add, just not in a rush to until next entry/declaration?

No I don't see him changing in price before his next run. He's 20/1 with 2(well technically but PP/Betfair can be counted as one) firms so can't see both of them cutting him.

We all have horses we are fond of any throw a couple of hopeful coins at. I had done that with him but after yesterday I went in and backed him not out of admiration of the horse but because I can actually see him winning.

He has won on everything from good to heavy. Ground won't be an issue. He smashed through his hurdles and still stayed on to finish second last march. Stamina won't be an issue. Yesterday while he didn't have the initial speed to go with Honeysuckle when she made her move he was hardly disgraced against a Irish CH winner so whether they go an end to end gallop or a crawl and sprint finish it won't bother him so the type of race that's run won't be an issue. The question mark over him was that this years Stayers is supposedly much stronger and the mistakes he made throughout his hurdling last March would cost him next March more than it did this March but I think while next years race looks guaranteed to be an improvement on last years, I think he has shown us from his two runs now that he also is going to be a much improved horse for that race.

[Pendil]

He has an entry in the Christmas hurdle at Leopardstown on Dec 28th. Think he will likely take that up and he runs very well around Leopardstown. Came second there last Christmas in a handicap hurdle of near top weight again switching back from a run over fences.

Will likely take on both Fury Road and Sire Du Berlais in that. He wins that will likely go maybe 8/1? So people may even prefer to wait till then to add him as it's such a competitive race he won't go much shorter than that surely even if he does win. I just think at 20/1 he has already shown improvement in his hurdling which is what cost him the race last season for me and is now the value in the market.

I have been thinking of doing Ronald after yesterdays run, but havn't pulled the trigger yet. I was surprised Donoghue kept the ride as he got the horse into all sorts of bother @ Navan. He is available @ 20/1 with B365 also. Must get him backed before the Christmas hurdle.

[jono]

Agree with the Ronald Pump shouts.

And I'll echo much of what you have already stated Eireman I thought much the same after his run last weekend.
In the back of my mind I had RP being older than he is, considering the amount of runs they have got into him in his carer to date. But he's only 7.
And actually if you were to drill down his form to 3 mile hurdle races, he's only ran 5 times with form figures of:

41122

With the two 2nds in this race last year and a Pertemps qualifier where he gave the winner just under 2stone and lost by a length.

It's looks to be a rare year where we have some depth and exciting horses coming into the division. So it'll be a tougher race.
But based on his run style and finish in the Hattons Grace, on everything we've seen from the horse he may well have not been out of the race at Navan when falling at the last.

It's on the cusp of being an ew bet for me. But I had a boost with PP to 22/1 which was enough to get me to add.
I can't see his price drifting too much even if he were to be well beaten at Christmas, where as he could massively enhance his claims and given the likely field if he were to win.

[Pendil]

Agree with the Ronald Pump shouts.

And I'll echo much of what you have already stated Eireman I thought much the same after his run last weekend.
In the back of my mind I had RP being older than he is, considering the amount of runs they have got into him in his carer to date. But he's only 7.
And actually if you were to drill down his form to 3 mile hurdle races, he's only ran 5 times with form figures of:

41122

With the two 2nds in this race last year and a Pertemps qualifier where he gave the winner just under 2stone and lost by a length.

It's looks to be a rare year where we have some depth and exciting horses coming into the division. So it'll be a tougher race.
But based on his run style and finish in the Hattons Grace, on everything we've seen from the horse he may well have not been out of the race at Navan when falling at the last.

It's on the cusp of being an ew bet for me. But I had a boost with PP to 22/1 which was enough to get me to add.
I can't see his price drifting too much even if he were to be well beaten at Christmas, where as he could massively enhance his claims and given the likely field if he were to win.

If SDB and Fury Road run and Ronald wins in the Christmas hurdle then he goes single figure price for the stayers

[Kevloaf]

If SDB and Fury Road run and Ronald wins he in the Christmas hurdle then he goes single figure price for the stayers

Good old if


If SBD beats FR and RP he goes shorter.
If FR beats SDB and RP he goes shorter.
If RP beats SDB and FR he goes shorter.