Stayers Hurdle 2021

[Kevloaf]

My reading after that today is we can narrow the Stayers down to 5 horses now. The first and second today, Sire de Berlais and Fury Road in Ireland, and if we get a really strongly run race again, Lisnager Oscar. So I was also a backer when the 50’s appeared NC200.

I have really good coverage now on all those I’m interested in, so If anyone can make a really good case for anything else and I’ve missed it I’m all ears.

Thomas Darby is one still yet to try 3 miles which could bring out improvement. He's 80/1 with 365, it's the target for him and the horse has enough ability to have placed at the festival before.

Obviously you already know all of this, his own graded form isn't terrible (a Grade 3 winner, beating Song For Someone - who won a Group 2 last week).

The whole angle does revolve around him improving for 3 miles, but at 80/1 I think he has scope to shorten dramtically still.



The only other horse I have backed that isn't already mentioned was/is Indefatigable on the exchanges, but that project looks to have gone off the straight and narrow. Although it was already a pretty windy road

[Lobos]

Lisnagar Oscar to have a wind op.

[Spectre]

Thomas Darby is one still yet to try 3 miles which could bring out improvement. He's 80/1 with 365, it's the target for him and the horse has enough ability to have placed at the festival before.

Obviously you already know all of this, his own graded form isn't terrible (a Grade 3 winner, beating Song For Someone - who won a Group 2 last week).

The whole angle does revolve around him improving for 3 miles, but at 80/1 I think he has scope to shorten dramtically still.



The only other horse I have backed that isn't already mentioned was/is Indefatigable on the exchanges, but that project looks to have gone off the straight and narrow. Although it was already a pretty windy road

Yes I agree with all of that Kev. I have Thomas Darby in my book too, he's a bet to nothing.

[doctorwu]

Really? A horse that travels that strongly into the latter part of a race at Newbury on good ground and doesn't find is a non-stayer to me. The large hill looming in March gives me even less reason to think he'd reverse the form with the front 2 IMO, and that's before we factor in what comes over from Ireland. He could improve, of course he could, but I have my reservations.

At least he won the stayers in November eh Lobos, that might be the best it ever gets for McFabulous

Spot on Charlie. Ab Fab got no chance at the fez. Just the usual bluster from "ole fat neck"

[BigChaang]

Fair play MoM, where did you snare 18/1 Thyme Hill ?
I backed him on the Saturday after the potato race at 16/1 and kept backing him at that price for a while, I don't remember ever seeing bigger.
A voucher to get excited about no question...

27/03/20 - got 20-1 on Thyme hill .....

[Can't Catch Me]

My reading after that today is we can narrow the Stayers down to 5 horses now. The first and second today, Sire de Berlais and Fury Road in Ireland, and if we get a really strongly run race again, Lisnager Oscar. So I was also a backer when the 50’s appeared NC200.

I have really good coverage now on all those I’m interested in, so If anyone can make a really good case for anything else and I’ve missed it I’m all ears.

I've got it down to 5 as well. But can't have Lisngagar Oscar at all. I know that might sound daft as the reigning champ, but I thought he capitalised in a weak race and just runs too many bad races. The other I think could make up into a contender is Beacon Edge. Not totally convinced he wants 3m tbh, but if he does cope with the step up, he's one I like. Got some very solid looking form in the book and really interested to see how he fares against Honeysuckle and Fury Road tomorrow.

[ToniC]

I’ve backed beacon edge for this, so I’m not against him at all and think his price is probably a fair reflection at the minute. The main driver behind my backing him is I certainly don’t think it will contract after tomorrow’s race, and much more likely shorten. However, my issue with him is 2 fold; he’s still got to improve a fair amount to be a genuine contender. He’s a very progressive horse & I could easily see him being rated in the low 160s by the end of the season, but he’s not there yet. The other issue is, as you say, the trip. 2m4 seems to suit perfectly for now and there are much easier tracks to step up to 3 miles at. But a Decent bet at the current prices providing you have cashout at the moment I think.

[charlie]

I've got it down to 5 as well. But can't have Lisngagar Oscar at all. I know that might sound daft as the reigning champ, but I thought he capitalised in a weak race and just runs too many bad races. The other I think could make up into a contender is Beacon Edge. Not totally convinced he wants 3m tbh, but if he does cope with the step up, he's one I like. Got some very solid looking form in the book and really interested to see how he fares against Honeysuckle and Fury Road tomorrow.

do tell.....

[Altior]

You're all forgetting Thistlecrack too lads

[Lobos]

My 6 against the field are Sire Du Berlais 16's, Mcfabulous 16's, Fury Road 14's, Thyme Hill 17.5, Main Fact 25's and Thomas Darby 66's. I won't be doing anything else unless Benie runs.

[The King Pimm]

My 6 against the field are Sire Du Berlais 16's, Mcfabulous 16's, Fury Road 14's, Thyme Hill 17.5, Main Fact 25's and Thomas Darby 66's. I won't be doing anything else unless Benie runs.

I cashed out on Thomas Darby when Call Me Lord lost last Saturday. I was hopeful he was this seasons mega Antepost bet but he’s now 80/1 so I’m going to wait to see when and where he races next before covering him. I love Main Fact, I put him up last season on a thread the FJ forum as a horse to follow after winning on him three races on the bounce but a grade 1 at the Festival is beyond him I feel, the current contenders are better and will get better as the season progresses. I’m reluctant to try and get him in a roll up as I can only see him placing at best so I’ll probably back him on the day with hopefully extra places available

[The King Pimm]

I know they don't have to officially declare them on the racecard, but I heard he got a bed bath prior to the stayers last season.

Personally performed by Rebecca Curtis.

He's not had one since as Rebecca needs 11 months to recover (plenty of sudocrem and rest required).

But I've heard that they plan another session before the festival this season too.

And hopefully a strong pace.

Awe man how nice would any kind of bath be with Rebecca Curtis, if I was a rich owner I couldn’t care if my horses won or even placed if she bathed me once every 11 months (she would have be in the bath with me, not hosing me down and scrubbing me from a distance)

[Kevloaf]

Yes I agree with all of that Kev. I have Thomas Darby in my book too, he's a bet to nothing.

So you have 6 that can win it

[Kevloaf]

I've got it down to 5 as well. But can't have Lisngagar Oscar at all. I know that might sound daft as the reigning champ,

It does sound daft.

I hate these brash "can't have it at all" statements.

try not to take this personally, as I am just twisting your nipples, as a long term and vauled contributor, but how freaking silly is that sentence? You literally cannot fathom the reigning champion winning again?


What if things played out like last year? That basis alone means its insane to declare you "can't have it".... it's happened before, so why CAN'T it happen again?

Your statement takes the price out of it as well. If Lisnager Oscar was a billion to one, you wouldn't back it, 'cos you "can't have it".



It's a stupid statement and whenever someone says it, I feel like they're a moron


Big love CCM, I hope you take this in the way its intended

[Spectre]

So you have 6 that can win it

It’s fair to pick me up on that Kev, but I don’t for one second think Thomas Darby will win the Stayers. He’s a nice one to have in the book at a value price if we lose a few along the way though. I’d imagine most likely I’ll be nicking a few quid by laying him in the lead up though.