Stayers Hurdle 2021

[Middle_Of_March]

Back in April, i said Paisley Park and Thyme Hill were the value bets in this market at 11/1 and 18/1 for this. Both have shortened now and I’d say they’re the right prices. Any shorter would be too far imo.

Can’t believe my eyes though that I’ve just seen SDB is joint fav with him. SDB may have carried too weight to win the Pertemps but Jesus Christ he’s 7/1 for a championship race? Despite being 9 years old and having his entire career in handicaps.

I know Lobos was very very keen on him at double figures but surely nobody thinks he’s a good price at 7/1? That looks absolutely insane to me.

[Kevloaf]

Eggs my man....

This race is high profile enough on its own to have the "to win today and the festival" in here....



I think Paisley Park will win tomorrow

• Good record first time out.
• Highest rated / best horse!
• Was head and shoulders the best horse in the division for 18 months.
• Wouldn't be running here unless they were 100% he was fit enough and ready and clear if the heart issue.
• Course and distance winner.
• Jockey on an upward curve (confidence high after getting the Epatante ride?)

So really, if he's back to the horse he was, he wins this race easily for me... and goes a short priced fav, justifiably so. He then only has a few Irish horses to worry about, and of all the divisions, this would be the one they are the worst in? Staying Hurdlers... (no facts to back that up but I reckon it'd be right)


If beaten tomorrow, almost certainly never going to reach the level he was at, so easy to look past even if he does run in the Stayers (unless he goes a stupid price, like 25/1 etc)




So, what is the best price to win tomorrow and the Stayers, and is this better than doing it as a manual double.....

[Middle_Of_March]

Eggs my man....

This race is high profile enough on its own to have the "to win today and the festival" in here....



I think Paisley Park will win tomorrow

• Good record first time out.
• Highest rated / best horse!
• Was head and shoulders the best horse in the division for 18 months.
• Wouldn't be running here unless they were 100% he was fit enough and ready and clear if the heart issue.
• Course and distance winner.
• Jockey on an upward curve (confidence high after getting the Epatante ride?)

So really, if he's back to the horse he was, he wins this race easily for me... and goes a short priced fav, justifiably so. He then only has a few Irish horses to worry about, and of all the divisions, this would be the one they are the worst in? Staying Hurdlers... (no facts to back that up but I reckon it'd be right)


If beaten tomorrow, almost certainly never going to reach the level he was at, so easy to look past even if he does run in the Stayers (unless he goes a stupid price, like 25/1 etc)


So, what is the best price to win tomorrow and the Stayers, and is this better than doing it as a manual double.....

Not sure if I agree with this Kev. A close second tomorrow to Thyme Hill, Mcdabulous, Summerville Boy or Lisnager Oscar isn’t the worst form in the world. Will he be fully fit for the race? I’m personally not sure. He’s drifting a bit too in the betting.

I love PP and he and TH are my only bets for the race, but I don’t think he can be totally ruled out if running well tomorrow but not winning.

[Eggs]

....from what I can see, Sky’s 16-1 is a stand-out for PP to win tomorrow/Stayers. Hills go 11-1, Paddy Power 10-1.

Bet365 offer the best PP Festival price @ 7-1, they go 9/4 tomorrow.

[Kevloaf]

Not sure if I agree with this Kev. A close second tomorrow to Thyme Hill, Mcdabulous, Summerville Boy or Lisnager Oscar isn’t the worst form in the world. Will he be fully fit for the race? I’m personally not sure. He’s drifting a bit too in the betting.

I love PP and he and TH are my only bets for the race, but I don’t think he can be totally ruled out if running well tomorrow but not winning.

He was head and shoulders above those kinds of horses... being beaten by any of them, for me, means he won't be as good as he was.

I think he should be 100% fit tomorrow, ready to do himself justice. When a horse has been off after that type of injury, surely they're not there as a warm up for anything, he'll be there to win. It's a grae 1, that he's the defending champion for?

If Paisley Park isn't running on merit tomorrow, for the owner, then this game is absolutely fucked.

[Kevloaf]

....from what I can see, Sky’s 16-1 is a stand-out for PP to win tomorrow/Stayers. Hills go 11-1, PP 10-1.

Bet365 offer the best Festival price @ 7-1, they go 9/4 tomorrow.

Lovely, only allowed 1.5 pts on, but that'll do to compliment what I already have

[Lobos]

I've watched Honest Vic's Cheltenham victory back again, his very first run over 3 miles, and boy did he do it well. Hugely impressive. Yes it was a handicap but the 2nd , who has won 3 from 4 this season, won next time and HV was put up to 150 which has him on a par tomorrow with the likes of Mcfabulous and Thyme Hill. I've chanced 0.5pt at 250/1 on the special double. Worth that small risk all day long.

[ComplyOrDie]

I've watched Honest Vic's Cheltenham victory back again, his very first run over 3 miles, and boy did he do it well. Hugely impressive. Yes it was a handicap but the 2nd , who has won 3 from 4 this season, won next time and HV was put up to 150 which has him on a par tomorrow with the likes of Mcfabulous and Thyme Hill. I've chanced 0.5pt at 250/1 on the special double. Worth that small risk all day long.

Yeah, think a couple of us on here like him, I believe Pendil has him backed at 20's for tomorrow and I followed him in. Also backed the 50's for him for the Stayers. For me, as long as he runs his race and ends up not far off then I'll be happy, as I fully expect more development over the trip to come, regardless of the result tomorrow.

[Big Bucks]

66s snapped up from you boys on Honest Vic!

[Lobos]

Yeah, think a couple of us on here like him, I believe Pendil has him backed at 20's for tomorrow and I followed him in. Also backed the 50's for him for the Stayers. For me, as long as he runs his race and ends up not far off then I'll be happy, as I fully expect more development over the trip to come, regardless of the result tomorrow.

Agree. The more I watch his win the more I am impressed. Could surprise many.

[jonthehammer]

Yeah, think a couple of us on here like him, I believe Pendil has him backed at 20's for tomorrow and I followed him in. Also backed the 50's for him for the Stayers. For me, as long as he runs his race and ends up not far off then I'll be happy, as I fully expect more development over the trip to come, regardless of the result tomorrow.

I liked him before that Cheltenham win after watching back the Coral Cup run. he was very impressive and i backed him that day. I also backed him for the Pertemps which could be a back up bet should he win tomorrow (or is close up behind the winner). I think the 250s is definitely the way to go on him now.

[Quevega]

I liked him before that Cheltenham win after watching back the Coral Cup run. he was very impressive and i backed him that day. I also backed him for the Pertemps which could be a back up bet should he win tomorrow (or is close up behind the winner). I think the 250s is definitely the way to go on him now.

think it's 125-1 now

[charlie]

I've watched Honest Vic's Cheltenham victory back again, his very first run over 3 miles, and boy did he do it well. Hugely impressive. Yes it was a handicap but the 2nd , who has won 3 from 4 this season, won next time and HV was put up to 150 which has him on a par tomorrow with the likes of Mcfabulous and Thyme Hill. I've chanced 0.5pt at 250/1 on the special double. Worth that small risk all day long.

Pretty much my thoughts exactly. 66/1 for the stayers has been hoovered up, lets hope he runs with credit. He's taking fair support for tomorrow which is particularly telling in a race this competitive

[ComplyOrDie]

I liked him before that Cheltenham win after watching back the Coral Cup run. he was very impressive and i backed him that day. I also backed him for the Pertemps which could be a back up bet should he win tomorrow (or is close up behind the winner). I think the 250s is definitely the way to go on him now.

If he wins tomorrow he is likely to be hit with a fairly big rise in the weights which will all but rule him out of a Pertemps run. Not only that I don't think the record of Pertemps Qulifier winners is very good. Usually better off looking for something that didn't win one.

[Quevega]

Pretty much my thoughts exactly. 66/1 for the stayers has been hoovered up, lets hope he runs with credit. He's taking fair support for tomorrow which is particularly telling in a race this competitive

I thought he looked impressive when winning at his first try over 3 miles.
But the gamble and his price for tomorrow seem a little out of sync.
Probably been tipped up a few times.

Winning a pertemps qualifier is rarely reliable form. However well you look when winning.

I would have backed him for tomorrow though had the 20's been available when I thought about it earlier today.

Paisley Park 5/2 and Hill sixteen 9/4 double instead.