Stayers Hurdle 2021

[The King Pimm]

Brilliant research & read Saxon Warrior, some really interesting points and stats

[ComplyOrDie]

Nice one, again, SW

[Hardy Eustace]

Fascinating stuff.

[Istabraq]

Cracking stuff SW

[Quevega]

Saxon.

Yep, second season novices tend to do very well in this, as per the Gold Cup. And the other championship races to a slightly lesser extent.

Even in the Big Bucks years, he was often chased home by a younger animal.
Certainly the ones to focus on.

Paisley Park is up against it stats wise, as a returning winner (after a defeat), but he did look shitloads better than the rest of them until that one run.

[Kevloaf]

Saxon.

Yep, second season novices tend to do very well in this, as per the Gold Cup. And the other championship races to a slightly lesser extent.

Even in the Big Bucks years, he was often chased home by a younger animal.
Certainly the ones to focus on.

Paisley Park is up against it stats wise, as a returning winner (after a defeat), but he did look shitloads better than the rest of them until that one run.

Anything but a win from Paisley Park on return and I think I'll be against him. At the moment I'm happy to put a line through one bad run as he was definitely the best and had collateral winning form against Lisnager Oscar.
The case for him will be very strong if he wins FTO which I expect him to be favourite to do.


The younger horses angle brought up, is probably true as a general rule in every race more-or-less? ... Good post still and should just be confirming what we all know?o

[Saxon Warrior]

Thanks Forumites,

I have shortened the list down now, to put the Two Gordon/Giggy candidates into Category B.
This is because looking at the last 10 years Gordy has had only two runners in the race.

Apples Jade aged 8 this year, finished unplaced
Tiger Roll aged 5 in 2015 finished unplaced.
Both of these are Giggy horses, but its obvious Gordon isnt as prolific looking for the winner than Willie.

[Saxon Warrior]

Anything but a win from Paisley Park on return and I think I'll be against him. At the moment I'm happy to put a line through one bad run as he was definitely the best and had collateral winning form against Lisnager Oscar.
The case for him will be very strong if he wins FTO which I expect him to be favourite to do.


The younger horses angle brought up, is probably true as a general rule in every race more-or-less? ... Good post still and should just be confirming what we all know?o

The main thing the work did was show me that Willie is targeting far more runners at it now, and getting success (win and place) regularly, plus 6yo and 7yo really do beat the old-timers very often since the superstar multi-winners left the building.

21 different horses placed in the first three in the last 7 years!

[Nortons who]

Although trends can be misleading, the Stayers Hurdle does seem to have a few stronger ones over the past 12 years. The following 3 in particular stand out.

Age – 10 of the last 12 winners were aged between 6 and 8
Previous Course Form – 12/12 winners had at least 1 previous run at Cheltenham
Previous Hurdle Form – 11/12 winners had at least 8 previous runs over hurdles.

Based on the excellent shortlist already supplied Saxon Warrior, on the face of it Thyme Hill might currently lack the experience over hurdles of the last 12 winners, as would Lord Royal. Fury Road and Francin could meet the tend with 3 runs over hurdles prior to the Festival.

Both Column of Fire and Janidil already meet these trends, as does LISNAGAR OSCAR for comparison purposes.

Are we all going for another FJ plunge on COF, or is once bitten twice shy!

THYME HILL 7yo, 4 runs at Cheltenham, only 4 runs over hurdles.
FURY ROAD 7yo, 1 run at Cheltenham, only 5 runs over hurdles.
COLUMN OF FIRE 7yo, 1 run at Cheltenham, 8 runs over hurdles.
JANIDIL 7yo, 1 run at Cheltenham, 8 runs over hurdles.
LORD ROYAL 6yo, 0 runs at Cheltenham, only 2 runs over hurdles.
FRANCIN 8yo, 0 runs at Cheltenham, only 5 runs over hurdles.

LISNAGAR OSCAR 8yo, 4 runs at Cheltenham, 10 runs over hurdles

I'm already on COF and Lisnagar Oscar but based on the above, might now need to add Janidil (at least TWAR).

[Kevloaf]

The main thing the work did was show me that Willie is targeting far more runners at it now, and getting success (win and place) regularly, plus 6yo and 7yo really do beat the old-timers very often since the superstar multi-winners left the building.

21 different horses placed in the first three in the last 7 years!

Yeah that's fair enough. Although there won't be many people who have been avoiding Willie Mullins


As one of the only backers of Bacardys lasyt year at 40/1, I'm certainly not one of them.

[nortonscoin200]

Brilliant research SW.

I'd be wary of going in with Column of Fire not only because Gordie/Giggs don't seem to target the Stayers - but Martin Pipe winners have not had a great record at future Festivals during the last decade. The one notable exception being the Willie trained Sir Des Champs who won the Jewson the following season and came second in the Gold Cup next time.

I know CoF didn't win the MP but so far it's not been a race in which to find a future Stayers winner. The AB has been a much better trial.

I love your focus on Willie's record in the Stayers and the way he is increasingly targeting the race.

And thanks to Saxon the one horse that screams "back me,back me" at the moment is Janidil.

The AB was his first try at 3m. He had a lot of other Festival entries but Willie was talking him up as an AB contender early in the new year even though he'd campaigned Janidil exclusively at 2m where he picked up two big handicap pots. Patrick thought those those wins were exceptional for a first season novice and Mark Walsh apparently loves the horse.

So do I but I was a shade disappointed with his AB run and the way he spent most of the race right out the back. Does he stay 3miles -I'm not sure, we'll presumably find out this season.

Is he worth backing for the Stayers at 75-1 with WH boost - you bet.

I'm already on for the NH Chase and any race (still available at 20-1 with WH) and this horse is worth having onside at a decent price.

1.25pts each Janidil Stayers at 75-1.

[nortonscoin200]

Apologies - duplicated

[archie]

It's a fine piece of work but I'd also be wary of Column Of Fire as a stats based qualifier. For the same reason, I'd hold back with Goshen and Captain Guinness with their future targets. If you don't complete a race, any stat immediately becomes subjective and therefore an opinion rather than a stat.

Janidil looks TWAR material. As well as the chasing options, his current handicap mark makes him a less likely runner here than, say, Sire Du Berlais so the Pertemps comes in to play as well.

[Istabraq]

It’s been 5 months and I can still barely say the horses name but I think Elliott has a decision to make with Column of Fire, target top races from the off or run him half fit a couple of time and make sure his mark is workable for March.
He could easily be the proverbial Coral Cup plot...

[JackieMoon33]

I’d have Column Of Fire going chasing but god knows over what trip and if he could be lined up for a handicap.

Janidil I think is more likely to stay over hurdles but I’d favour him being lined up for a handicap like Archie eluded too. I felt he was ridden to get the trip in the AB and he didn’t exactly fly home and chase down the leaders. He seemed to me to want an intermediate trip so the Pipe and Coral Cup could be more likely than a tilt at the Stayers.