Stayers Hurdle 2021

[YoungHustler]

First thoughts are sire du berlais is such a short price!!

Thyme hill will be one I look to add to the states shortly. Missed the 25s on Lisnagar (very annoying) and may leave now. Bennie has a squeak but she will be 10 next year (but only ran 10 times since being with Willie). I know this sounds daft but I don't actually think Cheltenham is her best course.

As for Paisley Park - he was found to have an irregular heart-beat after the race. I don't know nearly enough about equine welfare to make any comment but that would certainly be enough to put me off backing him until I have seen him run well on the racecourse again (though if he does the 7s will be taken instantly). How common is an irregular heart-beat post-race - is it common for horses to bounce back?

https://www.racingtv.com/news/paisle...ular-heartbeat

It appears that only the very best horses(Sprinter Sacre, Denman, Faugheen) have irregular heartbeat issues due to them all having massive hearts. Apparently 'only 6% of horses have the symptoms reoccur'. PP was back working(whilst wearing a heart monitor) without any issues and was being aimed at Punchestown before racing was shut down. I've taken 10s and 7s on him as think his price will considerably shorten if he wins his first race back.

https://blog.betfred.com/102725/sport/racing/paisley-park-gets-sprinter-sacre-treatment/

I'm also going to keep an eye on Mcfabulous as I remember an interview with Harry Derham who I think mentioned that Mcfabulous was one of the best horses in the yard but that they had not yet made up their minds whether he would stay over hurdles or go chasing next year. I can't remember where the interview was from unfortunately.

[Hardy Eustace]

It appears that only the very best horses(Sprinter Sacre, Denman, Faugheen) have irregular heartbeat issues due to them all having massive hearts. Apparently 'only 6% of horses have the symptoms reoccur'. PP was back working(whilst wearing a heart monitor) without any issues and was being aimed at Punchestown before racing was shut down. I've taken 10s and 7s on him as think his price will considerably shorten if he wins his first race back.

https://blog.betfred.com/102725/sport/racing/paisley-park-gets-sprinter-sacre-treatment/

I'm also going to keep an eye on Mcfabulous as I remember an interview with Harry Derham who I think mentioned that Mcfabulous was one of the best horses in the yard but that they had not yet made up their minds whether he would stay over hurdles or go chasing next year. I can't remember where the interview was from unfortunately.

Very interesting YH and likely therefore that paisley will come back none the worse for it, even more so now he’ll have a longer summer holiday than if they went to punchestown with him. Which we can all agree is a good thing.

[Istabraq]

Very true that YH, was what eventually killed Arkle too I believe....

[ComplyOrDie]

It appears that only the very best horses(Sprinter Sacre, Denman, Faugheen) have irregular heartbeat issues due to them all having massive hearts. Apparently 'only 6% of horses have the symptoms reoccur'. PP was back working(whilst wearing a heart monitor) without any issues and was being aimed at Punchestown before racing was shut down. I've taken 10s and 7s on him as think his price will considerably shorten if he wins his first race back.

https://blog.betfred.com/102725/sport/racing/paisley-park-gets-sprinter-sacre-treatment/

I'm also going to keep an eye on Mcfabulous as I remember an interview with Harry Derham who I think mentioned that Mcfabulous was one of the best horses in the yard but that they had not yet made up their minds whether he would stay over hurdles or go chasing next year. I can't remember where the interview was from unfortunately.

As said by others, this is very interesting for sure.

On a note about McFabulous, I so wanted them to go chasing with him, which looks like it will be next season now.

[TigerRolllllll]

Not too confident on anything yet - would like Benie if came here....and think they might, unless go for Mares Chase.....Assuming Honeysuckle stays over hurdles, i think she would neat Benie again...specially with both a year older

Have so far backed small stakes on Lisnegar Oscar at 25s and Thyme Hill at 18s as part of building a book

Paisley too short for me with injury risks at this stage, though will be watching closely

[Kevloaf]

Very true that YH, was what eventually killed Arkle too I believe....

Didn't he have two hearts?

[Lobos]

With Kev all the way on SDB. Backed him and Thyme Hill for this race and think they'll both end up there. I also have a feeling that Monkfish could potentially end up in the Stayers too. Pretty sure I read a quote from Mullins saying they could go that route with him ? Think Monkfish is the perverbial TWAR horse so backed him that way to cover all angles.

[ComplyOrDie]

With you on Monkfish as well. It is certainly a possibility for sure. Money currently would suggest otherwise, but as you noted TWAR market means you have a live one (assuming he makes it) in every race. Just wish I had snared the 8's as can't bring myself to take 11/2 now.

[Lobos]

With you on Monkfish as well. It is certainly a possibility for sure. Money currently would suggest otherwise, but as you noted TWAR market means you have a live one (assuming he makes it) in every race. Just wish I had snared the 8's as can't take 11/2 now.

Was lucky enough to go in early and grab 10/1 which I thought was very fair. Trouble is, loads of other people thought the same ! Agree, his TWAR price now is ridiculously short but, then again, he could go in one of four races IMO so maybe it's about right.

[ComplyOrDie]

Was lucky enough to go in early and grab 10/1 which I thought was very fair. Trouble is, loads of other people thought the same ! Agree, his TWAR price now is ridiculously short but, then again, he could go in one of four races IMO so maybe it's about right.

Yeah true, and almost sitting at the head of two of them markets as well. Can't moan about him being 11/2, just can't have it myself.

[Lobos]

Think thyme is overpriced at 16/1 and have back him EW.

I have a feeling Benie might come here, as Mullins hasn’t got much for the race and heaps of good mares to run in the mares hurdle. Will back 8/1 with bet365 cash out option in October. I think she needs 3 miles and would be hard to beat getting the mares allowance.

Agree TH is overpriced at 16's especially with Hobbs stating this as his likely target. Re Benie.........she could end up here ( would surely have won this year had she ran in it) she could have a 4th crack at the Mares (please no Mr Mullins) or she could go Mares Chase ( Mullins stated a few years back that she would be perfect for such a race if it were ever on the menu didn't he ?). I've backed her for the Mares Chase at 14/1 as she will not be that price should she turn up there but my thoughts are that she may well be retired to make little Benies. May be way off the mark but I can see it happening.

[Ray]

Agree TH is overpriced at 16's especially with Hobbs stating this as his likely target. Re Benie.........she could end up here ( would surely have won this year had she ran in it) she could have a 4th crack at the Mares (please no Mr Mullins) or she could go Mares Chase ( Mullins stated a few years back that she would be perfect for such a race if it were ever on the menu didn't he ?). I've backed her for the Mares Chase at 14/1 as she will not be that price should she turn up there but my thoughts are that she may well be retired to make little Benies. May be way off the mark but I can see it happening.

Id say they would want to put the mares hurdle to bed after how benie has ran the last 2 years..1 last go i reckon

[fatherjohn]

it's interesting looking at the AB again and again and trying to separate out the front 3--- I really can't as I think all got the passage through the race they would have wanted.

Looking a Thyme Hill and the reaction of Johnson after I keep seeing a race that they felt they had in the bag. A wide, wide route all the way round and I think crucially coming round the last bend at the top of the hill Thyme Hill looks to cut the corner from the outside and is pushed wider by Country Island-- meanwhile the three finishing 1-3 find an opening on the inside and travel well through. I think he loses 2-3 lengths here at a really important part of the race.

The run in was messy from Thyme Hill - I don't think he had *that* much in hand- but clearly lost momentum on two significant occasions.

On the basis that I can't split the front three- I think Thyme Hill is the one who you can explain how a better ride would have improved and jockey and trainer certainly support that they have a very good one.

Will be filling up on Thyme Hill in this and a few multiples.

[ComplyOrDie]

it's interesting looking at the AB again and again and trying to separate out the front 3--- I really can't as I think all got the passage through the race they would have wanted.

Looking a Thyme Hill and the reaction of Johnson after I keep seeing a race that they felt they had in the bag. A wide, wide route all the way round and I think crucially coming round the last bend at the top of the hill Thyme Hill looks to cut the corner from the outside and is pushed wider by Country Island-- meanwhile the three finishing 1-3 find an opening on the inside and travel well through. I think he loses 2-3 lengths here at a really important part of the race.

The run in was messy from Thyme Hill - I don't think he had *that* much in hand- but clearly lost momentum on two significant occasions.

On the basis that I can't split the front three- I think Thyme Hill is the one who you can explain how a better ride would have improved and jockey and trainer certainly support that they have a very good one.

Will be filling up on Thyme Hill in this and a few multiples.

I wouldn't disagree with the most part of that, Thyme Hill is certainly value in the Stayers, should the Albert Bartlett form hold up (no reason why it shouldn't at this stage). He is one I really must get on side soon with cash.

[Kevloaf]

The run in was messy from Thyme Hill - I don't think he had *that* much in hand- but clearly lost momentum on two significant occasions.

On the basis that I can't split the front three- I think Thyme Hill is the one who you can explain how a better ride would have improved and jockey and trainer certainly support that they have a very good one.

Will be filling up on Thyme Hill in this and a few multiples.

I agree with that, it's a fair assessment.

I am wary though of upgrading the performance too much. The reason Thyme Hill is a decent value price at the moment is that he's bigger than the horses that beat him and we are clearer on the target...

If he'd have had the perfect run, how far would he have won by? A length? Personally I think if any of those Albert Bartlett horses clashed again you'd be bananas to be confident in any of them beating the other... they're clearly closely matched.

Usually an unlucky horse gets over bet, but I don't think Thyme Hill has been at the moment.... I just don't want to get myself carried away either...but I will add soon.