Stayers Hurdle 2021

[Geordieboy83]

Sorry just seen pertemps thread. Didn’t realise I had unread threads on page 4. Hahaha

[Kevloaf]

Lisnagar Oscar entered in Pertempts Qualifier at Exeter on Sunday.

Yeah she'd said that was the plan as a prep for this

[PaisleyClegg]

Kevloaf thought it was interesting that the two market leaders in the Churdle made the list for Banker of week but neither of the favourites here.

Does that suggest that there is a bit of value here?

[Kevloaf]

Kevloaf thought it was interesting that the two market leaders in the Churdle made the list for Banker of week but neither of the favourites here.

Does that suggest that there is a bit of value here?

That was just due to them both being shorter in their markets and me only having 10 'options'... 5/2 the pair, Paisley 10/3 and Thyme Hill 4/1 couldn't squeeze in! I'd have liked Al Boum Photo and Zanahiyr as well


It probably suggests it's a bit deeper, so arguably harder?


I suppose everything 'behind' Honeysuckle and Epatante (bar Silver Streak) has been beaten by one of them... Whereas here we have some Irish horses in the mix?

[opatcho]

That of the season for me, trying to pick up some NRNB for late switches

Deciding whether to tie up credit backing Champ for this. 10/1 NRNB
Not sure if I like the price, would champ beat Paisley or Thyme Hill from what they've shown. I he was entered, how many pts would he get cut by. Go off at 5/1 or 6/1?

[Kevloaf]

That of the season for me, trying to pick up some NRNB for late switches

Deciding whether to tie up credit backing Champ for this. 10/1 NRNB
Not sure if I like the price, would champ beat Paisley or Thyme Hill from what they've shown. I he was entered, how many pts would he get cut by. Go off at 5/1 or 6/1?

Yeah, around that price you'd think. 11/1 NRNB with Boyle.

[Kevloaf]

Paul's Saga entered up in mares listed race at Warwick on Saturday.

Cartoon Dog will be scurrying.

Think his phone's broken


Beating L'Autonomie on looking?




Then again, 16/1 or 12/1 NRNB aren't exciting unless that was a proper running, of which I can't be arsed to check.

[ComplyOrDie]

Think his phone's broken


Beating L'Autonomie on looking?




Then again, 16/1 or 12/1 NRNB aren't exciting unless that was a proper running, of which I can't be arsed to check.

Pretty sure he'd already given his thoughts on PS somewhere on here previously

[Kevloaf]

Pretty sure he'd already given his thoughts on PS somewhere on here previously

I assume they weren't that positive, as he's not in my book

[Kevloaf]

I wrote this the night before I came down with the virus so a very few number of views may have seen this on my site if they were passing, but I haven't plugged or put in a thread anywhere.. and may be of interest


A multiple part series looking at at French recruits moving across into UK and Irish National hunt Racing.


Paul’s Saga (FR)

• Age: 7 (Foaled April 23rd, 2014)
• Sex: Bay Mare
• Sire: Martaline
• Dam: Humoriste (FR)
• Trainer: D Cottin
• Owner: Gerald Laroche

Paul’s Saga is a sister to the very good Siljan’s Saga (Sagamix), winner of the Grand Prix de Deauville, Prix Madame Jean Couturie, Prix Joubert and several times placed at the highest level, for a total of nearly €1.3m in earnings.



In the Stayers Hurdle at the Cheltenham Festival there is one entry from France, Paul’s Saga (David Cottin). The seven-year-old mare landed the Grande Course de Haies d’Auteuil (French Champion Hurdle) in October, has been mentioned recently on a variety of Cheltenham related podcasts and You tube based shows, Her trainer landed a Cheltenham festival winner last season with Easysland, but what has Paul’s Saga achieved herself to date?

She started on the flat where she won 3 races, and has since mixed it between hurdles and fences, her first graded victory was he GRANDE COURSE DE HAIES DE PRINTEMPS HANDICAP HURDLE (Group 3) in April 2019. In November 2019 she won the PRIX LEON OLRY-ROEDERER HURDLE (Group 2). She is yet to win, in 4 chase starts.





Paul’s Saga’s most notable win came in the Grande Course de Haies d’Auteuil this is a race previously won by such stars as Questerabad, Thousand Stars, Gemix, De Bon Coeur, and Benie Des Dieux, and she had a star herself to contend with, L’Autonomie who had racked up a very impressive sequence of 8 Graded wins on the bounce, and seemed to be pretty unbeatable.

L’Autonomie strode on into the lead in her customary fashion, jumped notably right throughout, which became worse as the race went on and was very difficult for Jockey Angelo Zuilani to manage, she still opened up a lead, Paul’s Saga, went on the attack between the last two obstacles and took the upper hand at the last hedge as she was able to take the support of the rail left to her by L’Autonomie to to win by 3/4 length. The partial timing system shows that the strides of L’Autonomie shortened early on the run in, while her rival has increased speed and stayed on continuously from the home straight, all the way to the line. This was no real suprise to myself, as L’Autonomie is a keen horse, who until recently, i would have had reservations about her at the intermediate trip, let alone the championship distance of 3m 1f 77y, you cant knock the winner Paul’s Saga , for the bare result, as the figures show, she stayed out the trip very well, however i do think that was clealy due to L’Autonomie being a non stayer, rather than Paul’s Saga being a superstar.



“I had planned to sit mid-pack but I could hear the English jockeys at the start all saying they weren’t going to go on,” said Nabet. “I really rode my mare for herself and thought we were running for a place rather than to beat L’Autonomie.”

“Last time, the problem wasn’t running in a steeplechase: she just wasn’t in the race. From the start, she didn’t keep up. Today, with the Australian blinkers, she was in on it from the beginning. I didn’t use this artifice in training, we put it on him for the race. We had worked hard in the morning, but it was not demonstrative. She had the terrain and the distance for her. We thought she’dgo to the stud if she ran badly. But now she should keep going! At first we thought we would go to Cheltenham and finish his career there, before entering the stud. So we could prepare the Stayers Hurdle (Gr1) of Cheltenham”





Paul’s Saga backed up her win shortly after in the PRIX CARMARTHEN HURDLE (Group 3) where she beat Beau Gosse who was a good juvenile, however until very recently had 2 years out through injury, and had won a couple of minor races at very short prices on his comeback trail, the 3rd Galop Marin, is a solid yet exposed regular performer in graded races, However, he managed to turn the tables on Paul’s Saga next time out in the GRAND PRIX D’AUTOMNE HURDLE (Group 1) beating her by 1/2L



How would i evaluate her chances in the stayers Hurdle?



I believe what she has achieved over hurdles this season is via consistency, and the lack of a staying star, in my opinion it would be foolish to see her beating L’autonomie and thinking that makes her a top quality star in her own right. The horses she has beaten, if you rightly take the non stayer L’autonomie out of the equation, are Not of a Grade 1 Championship Race standard, would be 3 figure prices, and well held in the Stayers Hurdle at the Cheltenham Festival.

The highest odds available of 25/1, for the race in question, in my opinion are about right, with the shorter odds, I believe, being less than generous.

She is not completely without a chance, however i believe she would be ultimately well held by the likes of Thyme Hill. Therefore Paul’s Saga would not be a bet that I am personally looking to place.

Even so, Paul’s Saga is still a very nice horse, and an interesting and welcome addition to these shores.







The Journey From France

Series, where we are looking at French recruits moving into UK and Irish National hunt Racing
Scooby91

Aaaaaaahhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhh here we go.

[Lobos]

Does anyone apart from me think that Benie may well come here now ? Mullins has Elimay/Colreevy for the Mares Chase, Concertista for the Mares Hurdle but has absolutely nothing for the Stayers. Benie is without doubt better over 3 miles and, when taking into account her Mares allowance, she has 1lb in hand over Paisley Park on her current hurdle rating. Why no love for her coming here ???

[Kevloaf]

Does anyone apart from me think that Benie may well come here now ? Mullins has Elimay/Colreevy for the Mares Chase, Concertista for the Mares Hurdle but has absolutely nothing for the Stayers. Benie is without doubt better over 3 miles and, when taking into account her Mares allowance, she has 1lb in hand over Paisley Park on her current hurdle rating. Why no love for her coming here ???

Honestly, less than 1% chance.

This race is EASILY the hardest of the 3 she could run in.



She's either in a match versus Concertista, as a previous C&D winner (and a faller with the race at her mercy), or, she's fav against a novice in Colreervy and Elimay



If she comes here, she takes on Roksana again (who is also better over further) as well as two horses that are shorter (and rightly so) in Paisley Park and Thyme Hill. Also a lot more horses in the Stayers are dangers, like Fury Road, Ronald Pump, Sire Du Berlais..



Honestly, I wouldn't back her at 100/1 without NRNB. They'd be bonkers to run her?

[Lobos]

You could say that the Mares Chase may be iffy due to her soundness and the fact she hasn't jumped a fence in public for 3 years and that she has run in the Mares Hurdle 3 times already winning just once and will have to take on a vastly improved Stablemate in Concertista . Whereas she is currently unbeaten over 3 miles posting her highest rating over that distance at Gowran and before that beating the then thought 'unbeatable' French Stayer De Bon Coeur over 3m+. She is entered in the Stayers so a conversation must have taken place. I'd say it's more than a 1% chance she ends up here. Maybe 2%

[Kevloaf]

You could say that the Mares Chase may be iffy due to her soundness and the fact she hasn't jumped a fence in public for 3 years and that she has run in the Mares Hurdle 3 times already winning just once and will have to take on a vastly improved Stablemate in Concertista . Whereas she is currently unbeaten over 3 miles posting her highest rating over that distance at Gowran and before that beating the then thought 'unbeatable' French Stayer De Bon Coeur over 3m+. She is entered in the Stayers so a conversation must have taken place. I'd say it's more than a 1% chance she ends up here. Maybe 2%

Haha, alright, 2% chance.


I've backed her NRNB for this..... I just think it's really unlikely they take on the toughest race of the 3....


.....with the caveat, fucking hope they do, hope good would the Thursday be then!

Forget the bets, I don't care about the Mares Hurdle or Mares Chase!

[Run4Home]

Does anyone apart from me think that Benie may well come here now ? Mullins has Elimay/Colreevy for the Mares Chase, Concertista for the Mares Hurdle but has absolutely nothing for the Stayers. Benie is without doubt better over 3 miles and, when taking into account her Mares allowance, she has 1lb in hand over Paisley Park on her current hurdle rating. Why no love for her coming here ???

They asked Ruby last week and he basically laughed at the suggestion she would go straight and take on Paisley and them in a Stayers saying was hurdle or chase for her.

So looks very unlikely.