Stayers Hurdle 2021

[Kevloaf]

keV, you need to get Sire Du Berlais on side.

Elaborate.....

[Lobos]

Elaborate.....

He's going to win.

[Quevega]

He's going to win.

Elliotts more likely to try and win another pertemps I reckon.
He may even try him in graded races prior to cheltenham and treat it as a coin toss.
He does well - cool
He gets battered - cool - mark drops.

He'd be happy to go for a third pertemps off 3 or 4lb higher I think.

[Kevloaf]

Elliotts more likely to try and win another pertemps I reckon.
He may even try him in graded races prior to cheltenham and treat it as a coin toss.
He does well - cool
He gets battered - cool - mark drops.

He'd be happy to go for a third pertemps off 3 or 4lb higher I think.

I definitely agree.
I think he's a very poor price considering I don't think he'll run, and if he did would be out classed.

The narrative regarding the Pertemps being run in a quicker time is one I've already discussed and whilst it isn't a negative at all for Sire Du Berlais, to use that as evidence he'd have won the Stayers is so flawed.

[Lobos]

I definitely agree.
I think he's a very poor price considering I don't think he'll run, and if he did would be out classed.

The narrative regarding the Pertemps being run in a quicker time is one I've already discussed and whilst it isn't a negative at all for Sire Du Berlais, to use that as evidence he'd have won the Stayers is so flawed.

Sire Du Berlais way of running reminds me of a few other Stayers winners. He tends to hit flat spots during his races but always finishes them off well being at his best in the latter stages. The likes of Big Bucks, Inglis Drever and Paisley Park all ran the same way looking in trouble at different times in their races and then rattling home up the hill. All were brilliant Stayers winners. SDB can do the same.

[Lobos]

Just done cross doubles on Thyme Hill and SDB in this with Captain Guinness in the Arkle. I now have 20 AP doubles for the festival. Last year I didn't do one !

[Kevloaf]

Sire Du Berlais way of running reminds me of a few other Stayers winners. He tends to hit flat spots during his races but always finishes them off well being at his best in the latter stages. The likes of Big Bucks, Inglis Drever and Paisley Park all ran the same way looking in trouble at different times in their races and then rattling home up the hill. All were brilliant Stayers winners. SDB can do the same.

On the wind up again?

He must be the best part of a stone behind Big Bucks and Inglis Drever, he will never get anywhere near that level. Just because he has the same run style, doesn't mean he has the same ability.


You genuinly believe Sire Du Berlais will 'do the same' as the three multiple time grade 1 staying hurdles you've mentioned? Sire Du Berlais? The JP McManus/Gordon Elliott handicapper?

I don't know why I let you hook me in.

[Lobos]

On the wind up again?

He must be the best part of a stone behind Big Bucks and Inglis Drever, he will never get anywhere near that level. Just because he has the same run style, doesn't mean he has the same ability.


You genuinly believe Sire Du Berlais will 'do the same' as the three multiple time grade 1 staying hurdles you've mentioned? Sire Du Berlais? The JP McManus/Gordon Elliott handicapper?

I don't know why I let you hook me in.

Won off 152 in Pertempts. That was some performance off that high. Must have been highest ever rating to win race maybe ?? Him and The Storyteller were in a different league to the rest. SDB comes to life at the Fez which is exactly what you want. He's only won 2 hurdle races since leaving France and both were at the Fez. He also ran a staying on 4th in Martin Pipe in his only other visit to the course. He is far better than a handicapper in the Spring. He won't reach the levels of BBor ID but probably won't need to to win the Stayers in March. I think he's a huge player.

[Lobos]

I reckon I'll get you to back him before the day is out Kev........... c'mon, you know it makes sense.

[Lobos]

Just checked, SDB is highest rated horse to win Pertempts in last 12 years plus also he carried equal highest weight to win. Sire Du Berlais rated 158. Enough to win 5 of last 12 Stayers. Two 9 year olds have also won the race in last 12 years so age not an issue. 7lbs better on ratings than my other fancy Thyme Hill and 7lbs better than Fury Road. Just 2lbs behind this year's winner Lisnagar Oscar. He really does stand out on the stats/trends. I'm going in again.

[Kevloaf]

Won off 152 in Pertempts. That was some performance off that high. Must have been highest ever rating to win race maybe ?? Him and The Storyteller were in a different league to the rest. SDB comes to life at the Fez which is exactly what you want. He's only won 2 hurdle races since leaving France and both were at the Fez. He also ran a staying on 4th in Martin Pipe in his only other visit to the course. He is far better than a handicapper in the Spring. He won't reach the levels of BBor ID but probably won't need to to win the Stayers in March. I think he's a huge player.

...and we know The Storyteller isn't a grade 1 animal - having been tried at that level.... so all he's really done is prove he's ever so slightly better than The Storyteller.... and The Storyteller won't be winning a Stayers Hurdle etc....


You think he's a huge player, but you also thought Malone Road was a player in the Champion Hurdle

[Lobos]

...and we know The Storyteller isn't a grade 1 animal - having been tried at that level.... so all he's really done is prove he's ever so slightly better than The Storyteller.... and The Storyteller won't be winning a Stayers Hurdle etc....


You think he's a huge player, but you also thought Malone Road was a player in the Champion Hurdle

The Storyteller hasn't done a bad job franking the Pertempts form this season.

I think it's madness saying SDB can't win a Stayers when last season's winner is only rated 2lbs higher than him. Plus I see you've backed Thyme Hill and Fury Road who are currently 7lbs inferior to SDB . Clearly you must think they have even less chance of winning the race....why back them on that basis??

[Kevloaf]

The Storyteller hasn't done a bad job franking the Pertempts form this season.

I think it's madness saying SDB can't win a Stayers when last season's winner is only rated 2lbs higher than him. Plus I see you've backed Thyme Hill and Fury Road who are currently 7lbs inferior to SDB . Clearly you must think they have even less chance of winning the race....why back them on that basis??

The Storyteller has had multiple attempts at Grade 1 level, and is not good enough.



Fury Road and Thyme Hill were novice hurdlers, so haven't achieved their peak ratings yet. I know that they'll achieve higher ratings in open company unless they regress, that is how the ratings and natural progression works. I've backed them as in my opinion (and actually it's fact) that they're clearly open to improvement more so than SDB is.

Also I have backed them as I clearly think they're better value, and I'll be disappointed if they aren't rated higher than Sire Du Berlais by the end of next season.


I'd suggest, a better definition of madness is to consider a horse that is exposed as a handicapper that is rated inferior, will improve again to be better than the open class hurdlers and also better than the novices coming in to the division. The horse I've backed is rated higher, on absolute merit. At the same price, you're the one with something to prove and less actual reasons for the progression to appear.


One of your worst ever arguements, stop wasting my time. You don't post your bets openly like the rest of us do, so stop telling everyone who you've backed in every single thread too, it has no credibility and doesn't add anything of worth.

[Lobos]

The Storyteller has had multiple attempts at Grade 1 level, and is not good enough.



Fury Road and Thyme Hill were novice hurdlers, so haven't achieved their peak ratings yet. I know that they'll achieve higher ratings in open company unless they regress, that is how the ratings and natural progression works. I've backed them as in my opinion (and actually it's fact) that they're clearly open to improvement more so than SDB is.


I have backed them as I clearly think they're better value, and I'll be disappointed if they aren't rated higher than Sire Du Berlais by the end of next season.





One of your worst ever arguements, stop wasting my time.

We don't know that they'll improve past SDB so not fact. It is fact that SDB improved throughout last season culminating in his Pertempts win where first time head gear improved him even more. His current rating would have been good enough to win 5 of the last 12 Stayers. Both TH and FR are open to improvement but both have a fair way to go even to reach the level of SDB so to say they are better value is debatable . Very dangerous to dismiss a 2 time festival winner with little to back up the argument.

[Kevloaf]

We don't know that they'll improve past SDB so not fact. It is fact that SDB improved throughout last season culminating in his Pertempts win where first time head gear improved him even more. His current rating would have been good enough to win 5 of the last 12 Stayers. Both TH and FR are open to improvement but both have a fair way to go even to reach the level of SDB so to say they are better value is debatable . Very dangerous to dismiss a 2 time festival winner with little to back up the argument.

I said it's a fact that they are open to improvement more so than SDB is - don't try and put words in my mouth. Are you disputing that novice hurdlers aren't open to more improvement than seasoned handicappers?

Lobos, Sire Du Berlais is a two time handicap winner at the festival... it's like suggesting Un Temps Pour Tout should have been a Gold Cup player after he won 2x Ultima Handicap Chases.... I haven't said it's impossible, however I am extremely confident 16/1 is not a good value price for you to be right on this occasion.