Ryanair Chase 2021

[charlie]

It's a good effort, but it's just not better value is it? On balance?

You'd struggle to find somebody who has made more cases for Tornado Flyer on here than me... but I have zero doubt at all that Samcro is a better prospect to win a Grade 1 at Cheltenham. He's twice as likely, at least....

If you completely go by this seasons form, ignoring their profiles and records previously, I kind of see it...

However, Samcro isn't the 5/1 fav, it's not like we need to make excuses.

For example, TF is a better value bet against Min and his price due to the 1L defeat, than he is a good bet again Samcro at half the odds (or whatever it is)

Yeh a firing Samcro is absolutely no doubt a better prospect to win a Grade 1 at Cheltenham, no argument there, but there have to be reservations with him don't there? He's been all miss and no hit this season which is reflected in his current price. To me that doesn't mean ignore Samcro's profile, but it certainly means it carries less weight when weighing up his value. The Samcro we've seen this season wouldn't have laid a glove on Min in the John Durkan, TF nearly did, so 60 v 20 swings in TF favour for me as just the wrong price, but I understand the argument that 36 v 20 doesn't swing for TF, for the reasons you mention.

[Kevloaf]

Yeh a firing Samcro is absolutely no doubt a better prospect to win a Grade 1 at Cheltenham, no argument there, but there have to be reservations with him don't there? He's been all miss and no hit this season which is reflected in his current price. To me that doesn't mean ignore Samcro's profile, but it certainly means it carries less weight when weighing up his value. The Samcro we've seen this season wouldn't have laid a glove on Min in the John Durkan, TF nearly did, so 60 v 20 swings in TF favour for me as just the wrong price, but I understand the argument that 36 v 20 doesn't swing for TF, for the reasons you mention.

Some reservations definitely....but currently at the price I think they're factored in?

If he hadn't been 'miss' he wouldn't be double figures, let alone near 20/1?



I don't think TF is a definite runner at 60s, whereas Samcro is at 20s...... and on the day, or with confirmation of a run, I still think you could get a big price about TF.... he's got feck all chance of getting sub 20/1, ..... he could be 30+ with extra places....


I don't back win only that often, I personally don't think TF is value at 60/1 to win the race. I think Samcro is at 20/1

[charlie]

Some reservations definitely....but currently at the price I think they're factored in?

If he hadn't been 'miss' he wouldn't be double figures, let alone near 20/1?

I don't think TF is a definite runner at 60s, whereas Samcro is at 20s...... and on the day, or with confirmation of a run, I still think you could get a big price about TF.... he's got feck all chance of getting sub 20/1, ..... he could be 30+ with extra places....

I don't back win only that often, I personally don't think TF is value at 60/1 to win the race. I think Samcro is at 20/1

Really?!? On this seasons form he has to be value doesn't he? He's 10 times the price of Min, and a length separates them. Mighty run from TF that day.

[Kevloaf]

Really?!? On this seasons form he has to be value doesn't he? He's 10 times the price of Min, and a length separates them. Mighty run from TF that day.

I'd back him e/w at 60/1

Not win only.


Must just be a personal preference. I don't think he'd win 1 in 60 Ryanair's


If I had 0.5 pts, I'd back Samcro at 20/1 over Tornado Flyer at 60/1 though yeah...

[charlie]

I'd back him e/w at 60/1

Not win only.

Must just be a personal preference. I don't think he'd win 1 in 60 Ryanair's

If I had 0.5 pts, I'd back Samcro at 20/1 over Tornado Flyer at 60/1 though yeah...

Yeh I can understand the not wanting win only. I think I'm coming at this more from a 'if you fancy Min then how can you not fancy TF at 10 times the price', but this is about value v Samcro, so I've gone off on a bit of a tangent!!

[Eggs]

...plenty of e/w fancies being highlighted, but I noticed a bit of Oddschecker blue for Greaneteen in this yesterday. I’ve no idea if Nicholls has suggested this as a target.

[Quevega]

...plenty of e/w fancies being highlighted, but I noticed a bit of Oddschecker blue for Greaneteen in this yesterday. I’ve no idea if Nicholls has suggested this as a target.

He said they'll have a better idea after he's run at the weekend.

[Supermaster]

Will Cyrname be pulled out of this and the Gold Cup now?

[Hardy Eustace]

Will Cyrname be pulled out of this and the Gold Cup now?

be amazed if he ran in either - really not sure where you would go with him now.

Doesn't look the force of old unfortunately.

[Quevega]

be amazed if he ran in either - really not sure where you would go with him now.

Doesn't look the force of old unfortunately.

Maybe he needs to go left handed these days

[FinalFurlong91]

Will Cyrname be pulled out of this and the Gold Cup now?

Id be shocked if they didn't pull stumps for the season

[Kevloaf]

Will Cyrname be pulled out of this and the Gold Cup now?

Not sure he was ever a likely runner?

[charlie]

Allaho
Ryanair Chase

He's coming along nicely now. He ran a big race in the RSA last year and his Thurles win was much more like it. We rode him positively and he answered every call Paul [Townend] gave him. He's entered in the Red Mills Chase at Gowran but I think we might give that a miss and bring him straight to Cheltenham for the Ryanair. He might just have enough done.

[Faugheen_Machine]

Allaho
Ryanair Chase

He's coming along nicely now. He ran a big race in the RSA last year and his Thurles win was much more like it. We rode him positively and he answered every call Paul [Townend] gave him. He's entered in the Red Mills Chase at Gowran but I think we might give that a miss and bring him straight to Cheltenham for the Ryanair. He might just have enough done.

Makes you wonder how long ago he did the stable tour given that the Red Mills was abandoned.

The rumours about Kilcruit could have started after he did the interview.

[PresentingPercy]

Makes you wonder how long ago he did the stable tour given that the Red Mills was abandoned.

The rumours about Kilcruit could have started after he did the interview.

Think Gowran Park Red Mills Day has been rescheduled to this Friday, Feb 26th