Ryanair Chase 2021

[Lobos]

What did people see in Melon's last run that makes them think a deeper race over 2f further up that hill is going to suit him more than this?

I honestly think he'll run in GC to make it a proper test to suit ABP. They really want that 3rd GC in a row.

[charlie]

I honestly think he'll run in GC to make it a proper test to suit ABP. They really want that 3rd GC in a row.

So you think he doesn't really have a chance and will just be in there for ABP?

[Lobos]

So you think he doesn't really have a chance and will just be in there for ABP?

Yep, exactly that. As we know, Mullins is a very persuasive and clever man. He wants this badly. I doubt the owners will argue too much giving up a chance to go into the record books.

[FinalFurlong91]

I honestly think he'll run in GC to make it a proper test to suit ABP. They really want that 3rd GC in a row.

Cant see it myself why waste such a good horse as a pacemaker

Should run here and would have a huge chance

[Lobos]

Cant see it myself why waste such a good horse as a pacemaker

Should run here and would have a huge chance

He should he running here and would have a huge chance but , the draw of 3 GC in a row will be too big I fear. I may have to eat my words but I really don't see Melon going anywhere else bar the GC. Said it all the way through and it looks like they are following it through.

[germanshepherd]

Mullins has been consistent in saying Melon could go for the Gold Cup. He said it after the JLT last year. Don't think he'll be sacrificed either they'll try to settle him and hold onto him longer.

[Carnage at Taunton]

Not sure ABP needs melons help in wining a gold cup, been ok last 2 years. I expect Melon to be in the race cos they think he has a fair chance, not as a sacrifice.
personally I think he’s tailor made for the Ryanair after watching his last race.

[Lobos]

Not sure ABP needs melons help in wining a gold cup, been ok last 2 years. I expect Melon to be in the race cos they think he has a fair chance, not as a sacrifice.
personally I think he’s tailor made for the Ryanair after watching his last race.

He did find it easier in 2019 though when there was a good pace on. They haven't forgotten that and won't want to take any chances .

[charlie]

Yep, exactly that. As we know, Mullins is a very persuasive and clever man. He wants this badly. I doubt the owners will argue too much giving up a chance to go into the record books.

Doesn't make a bean of sense to me. Owners and trainers want as many Cheltenham winners as possible, and that's how they measure success. That historically means (not always, but almost always), splitting up their best horses, and Melon is one of their best. The Donnelly's might be swimming in cash, but it's not like they're swimming with loads of potential Cheltenham winners is it. They have just lost TBG, AF isn't winning over fences, their novice and juvenile hurdlers are both in shit hot races, which leaves Shishkin, ABP and Melon as their best chasers. They have every chance of winning all 3, and this theory that Melon will be scarified to set up the pace for ABP completely ignores that Paul Nicholls has said Frodon will be going to the Gold Cup, meaning a decent pace is pretty much guaranteed. It also completely ignores the fact that whilst a decent pace would help ABP (2 years ago), he was still able to win of a bloody crawl last year. So yeh, I don't buy it but of course, it wouldn't shock me if it happened, its Willie.

[Carnage at Taunton]

Well it looked to me that Melon would excel over the Ryanair trip and that he would probably struggle over the Gold Cup trip.
I hope the owners have a chance of two wins in these two races.

[Lobos]

Doesn't make a bean of sense to me. Owners and trainers want as many Cheltenham winners as possible, and that's how they measure success. That historically means (not always, but almost always), splitting up their best horses, and Melon is one of their best. The Donnelly's might be swimming in cash, but it's not like they're swimming with loads of potential Cheltenham winners is it. They have just lost TBG, AF isn't winning over fences, their novice and juvenile hurdlers are both in shit hot races, which leaves Shishkin, ABP and Melon as their best chasers. They have every chance of winning all 3, and this theory that Melon will be scarified to set up the pace for ABP completely ignores that Paul Nicholls has said Frodon will be going to the Gold Cup, meaning a decent pace is pretty much guaranteed. It also completely ignores the fact that whilst a decent pace would help ABP (2 years ago), he was still able to win of a bloody crawl last year. So yeh, I don't buy it but of course, it wouldn't shock me if it happened, its Willie.

Let's hope for any fans out there that I'm way off the mark !

[archie]

They will, of course, be waiting until the Irish Gold Cup before even deciding on whether there's a decision to be made.

[Quevega]

Doesn't make a bean of sense to me. Owners and trainers want as many Cheltenham winners as possible, and that's how they measure success. That historically means (not always, but almost always), splitting up their best horses, and Melon is one of their best. The Donnelly's might be swimming in cash, but it's not like they're swimming with loads of potential Cheltenham winners is it. They have just lost TBG, AF isn't winning over fences, their novice and juvenile hurdlers are both in shit hot races, which leaves Shishkin, ABP and Melon as their best chasers. They have every chance of winning all 3, and this theory that Melon will be scarified to set up the pace for ABP completely ignores that Paul Nicholls has said Frodon will be going to the Gold Cup, meaning a decent pace is pretty much guaranteed. It also completely ignores the fact that whilst a decent pace would help ABP (2 years ago), he was still able to win of a bloody crawl last year. So yeh, I don't buy it but of course, it wouldn't shock me if it happened, its Willie.

Doubt Frodon will set a decent pace.
He'll try and get a soft lead, and then pack it in when he can't.

Disagree with Lobos also, in that Melon would not be used as a pacemaker, although he may run to different tactics than others in the stable.

I'd be pretty sure the Donnely's would be just as pleased to see Melon win the Gold cup vs Al Boum.
He's probably a more popular horse to be fair.

[Faugheen_Machine]

Agree with Q about Frodon. It's all about a soft lead for him.

With regards to Melon, he's been beaten at the festival in 3 races over minimum trips and then in the Marsh last season so it's not like he's a stand out bet in the Ryanair.

A better ride at Christmas might just have seen him land the Savills. He's well worth a place in the GC imo but the Irish GC will shape where he goes.

[Garrison Savannah]

I think Melon will go Gold Cup unless he unequivocally proves in the Irish Gold Cup he doesn’t stay/is very unlikely to stay the extended trip at Cheltenham.

Doubt Frodon will set a decent pace.
He'll try and get a soft lead, and then pack it in when he can't.

Disagree with Lobos also, in that Melon would not be used as a pacemaker, although he may run to different tactics than others in the stable.

Found myself nodding my head reading this post.