Ryanair Chase 2021

[charlie]

I definitely think Altior is overpriced.

That being said, CPS has at least won a Grade 1 and is trained by Mullins so I can at least understand why he’s the CC favourite. Imperial Aura certainly hasn’t won a grade 1. Hes miles too short.

Min has to be shorter in the betting. He just has to be. It makes no sense.

Whilst I'll be taking on Min (reasons given earlier), there is no way IA should be shorter than Min in the market based on what both have achieved, IMO. Agree very much with you MOM.

Speaking of which, Defi Du Seuil is a 5-time multiple Grade 1 winner and is over 4 times the price of Imperial Aura, and he's only 7 ffs!

I can't say it doesn't make sense because we know why he's that price - shit festival and PU on seasonal reappearance, but DDS has been poor on enough seasonal reappearances now (to horses that have proven to be average) for me to worry about his run LTO less - I think he's a horse that just needs his first run.

There is no doubt an element of faith attached to this bet, which means it looks like the wrong price to me, but I can completely understand why it wouldn't appeal for others.

But 22/1 is huge for this no? Assuming he gets his season back on track and proves his wellbeing (which I believe he did when getting tired LTO), what price does he go off for a Ryanair? Single figures? Favourite? At his last 3 festivals he's gone off 2/5F, 3/1F & 5/2F, so its far from madness suggesting he could go off favourite for this race, given he's a high 160's/170 horse who will be 8 years old and form figures at Cheltenham that read 111152114PU.

I think he should be half the price he is currently, so 22/1 to me represents value in a race where he's achieved more than pretty much the entire field ahead of him in the market.

[ComplyOrDie]

Whilst I'll be taking on Min (reasons given earlier), there is no way IA should be shorter than Min in the market based on what both have achieved, IMO. Agree very much with you MOM.

Speaking of which, Defi Du Seuil is a 5-time multiple Grade 1 winner and is over 4 times the price of Imperial Aura, and he's only 7 ffs!

I can't say it doesn't make sense because we know why he's that price - shit festival and PU on seasonal reappearance, but DDS has been poor on enough seasonal reappearances now (to horses that have proven to be average) for me to worry about his run LTO less - I think he's a horse that just needs his first run.

There is no doubt an element of faith attached to this bet, which means it looks like the wrong price to me, but I can completely understand why it wouldn't appeal for others.

But 22/1 is huge for this no? Assuming he gets his season back on track and proves his wellbeing (which I believe he did when getting tired LTO), what price does he go off for a Ryanair? Single figures? Favourite? At his last 3 festivals he's gone off 2/5F, 3/1F & 5/2F, so its far from madness suggesting he could go off favourite for this race, given he's a high 160's/170 horse who will be 8 years old and form figures at Cheltenham that read 111152114PU.

I think he should be half the price he is currently, so 22/1 to me represents value in a race where he's achieved more than pretty much the entire field ahead of him in the market.

Yeah, I think DDS will be a different proposition over the intermediate trip, as I have always said. I will likely go back in on him again for the Ryanair once he has his next entry. He never looked right on seasonal reappearance, so I shall be cautious on his well being until then.

Based on his festival record, even with last seasons 'blip' you'd have to believe he is one that is somewhat overpriced, as you have noted.

[charlie]

Yeah, I think DDS will be a different proposition over the intermediate trip, as I have always said. I will likely go back in on him again for the Ryanair once he has his next entry. He never looked right on seasonal reappearance, so I shall be cautious on his well being until then.

Based on his festival record, even with last seasons 'blip' you'd have to believe he is one that is somewhat overpriced, as you have noted.

I certainly hope he makes it back COD. I love his profile for this race too. Historically the Ryanair is won by classy Grade 1 horses that are simply better than their opposition, and/or the battle hardened Cheltenham Festival regulars (I think 5 horses have won the Ryanair having lost at least 2 times at previous festivals). As a multiple Grade 1 winner AND a battle hardened festival performer (with the 1's to back it up), he ticks more boxes than most so 22/1 to me is an absolute no brainer.

[FinalFurlong91]

Id personally need to see defi run a proper race again after the last twice before ever backing him again

[Istabraq]

Yeah, I think DDS will be a different proposition over the intermediate trip, .

I don't disagree CoD but it could be the horse has simply regressed.
French bred 8yo (in a few weeks) won't be improving as he is now into his sixth season racing, as a comparison take your standard UK/Ire bred who starts his racing career as a 5yo by the time he/she enters their sixth season racing they are a 10yo and qualifies for veterans chases.
Al that could be utter bollocks but it could also have an element of truth to it...

[RufusFlynn]

According to his Jockey, Allaho made 2 race ending mistakes on his way round. Better luck next time hopefully. Maybe better ground will suit

I think the fact the jockey reported the mistakes is key here. Not one to write off after his first try in open company and given that he has previously needed at least his first run of the year.

The fog can't have helped. Realistically, we know the result but basically nothing else about the race. That the price has been pushed out for him is a bonus.

Interested to see when and where he is entered next.

[jonthehammer]

I think the fact the jockey reported the mistakes is key here. Not one to write off after his first try in open company and given that he has previously needed at least his first run of the year.

The fog can't have helped. Realistically, we know the result but basically nothing else about the race. That the price has been pushed out for him is a bonus.

Interested to see when and where he is entered next.

Wasnt the fog there for all the horses and riders though? Min seemed to jump well from what Patrick said. I just dont think he is as good as a lot seem to make it. Willing to change my mind if he performs next time out thought.

[ComplyOrDie]

I don't disagree CoD but it could be the horse has simply regressed.
French bred 8yo (in a few weeks) won't be improving as he is now into his sixth season racing, as a comparison take your standard UK/Ire bred who starts his racing career as a 5yo by the time he/she enters their sixth season racing they are a 10yo and qualifies for veterans chases.
Al that could be utter bollocks but it could also have an element of truth to it...

I think regression can happen to any horse at any point. I don't buy into the theory about whether they are French bred or not, for example, Min is a French bred, and won the Ryanair aged 9, Un De Sceaux too, who won G1's aged 9, 10 & 11, as well as Sprinter Sacre, who won two G1's aged 10, including the QMCC. If they're good enough, they'll continue to perform, this includes the UK/Ire bred horses also.

Defi Du Seuil will be 8, as you noted.

Defi Du Seuil can chuck in absolute stinkers, he done it at the start of his career outside of juvenile company, and also in his first ever start over fences. In fact, with the exception of his Juvenile hurdling career, he actually never comes back from any sort of half decent break very well. He needs runs in him.

His form when coming off the back of a break of 50+ days or more reads 1st (his first juvenile hurdle run), 4th of 5, 7th of 8, 5th of 5, 4th of 5 & PU. His form running within 50 days of each run is a row of 1's (12 of them) with the odd 2nd place in there, and one of them 2nd place efforts, the one behind Chacun Pour Soi @ Punchestown was a 49 day break, so right on the cusp. I think it is a fairly obvious pattern with him.

[RufusFlynn]

Wasnt the fog there for all the horses and riders though? Min seemed to jump well from what Patrick said. I just dont think he is as good as a lot seem to make it. Willing to change my mind if he performs next time out thought.

Yes, not an excuse. Unlikely any of them race their best races given the conditions.

Happy to give him the benefit of doubt for first time in open company.

[Istabraq]

I think regression can happen to any horse at any point. I don't buy into the theory about whether they are French bred or not, for example, Min is a French bred, and won the Ryanair aged 9, Un De Sceaux too, who won G1's aged 9, 10 & 11, as well as Sprinter Sacre, who won two G1's aged 10, including the QMCC. If they're good enough, they'll continue to perform, this includes the UK/Ire bred horses also.
.

I think you're quoting exceptions rather than the rule CoD.
The way French horses are trained is different, they just brush hurdles at 2 and fences at 3, they generally peak sooner and regress earlier.
You get UK/Ire bred 11/12 and even 13yo holding their form, Perfect Candidate a great example, but realistically you would not be expecting them to peak at 12, they are probably at their best at 9, in other words their 4th/5th year racing, translate that to French breds and they probably peak as a 6yo/7yo though with occasional exceptions...

[Middle_Of_March]

Whilst I'll be taking on Min (reasons given earlier), there is no way IA should be shorter than Min in the market based on what both have achieved, IMO. Agree very much with you MOM.

Speaking of which, Defi Du Seuil is a 5-time multiple Grade 1 winner and is over 4 times the price of Imperial Aura, and he's only 7 ffs!

I can't say it doesn't make sense because we know why he's that price - shit festival and PU on seasonal reappearance, but DDS has been poor on enough seasonal reappearances now (to horses that have proven to be average) for me to worry about his run LTO less - I think he's a horse that just needs his first run.

There is no doubt an element of faith attached to this bet, which means it looks like the wrong price to me, but I can completely understand why it wouldn't appeal for others.

But 22/1 is huge for this no? Assuming he gets his season back on track and proves his wellbeing (which I believe he did when getting tired LTO), what price does he go off for a Ryanair? Single figures? Favourite? At his last 3 festivals he's gone off 2/5F, 3/1F & 5/2F, so its far from madness suggesting he could go off favourite for this race, given he's a high 160's/170 horse who will be 8 years old and form figures at Cheltenham that read 111152114PU.

I think he should be half the price he is currently, so 22/1 to me represents value in a race where he's achieved more than pretty much the entire field ahead of him in the market.

I may have mentioned this before so apologies if I’m repeating myself but I backed DDS for the Ryanair in the summer - at 22/1 funnily enough.

I took the position that there’s no way they’d aim at the CC again when the Ryanair looks so perfect for the horse. I was wrong.

However now he’s been clearly beat over 2m again, I think the Ryanair bet is live. I would agree with you that the 22s is too big and if I hadn’t already backed him, I would have now.

He and Min are my two against the field. The Min bet at 10s was (I believe) the same day I backed DDS for this and was probably heart over head at the time. I loved what he did last year as a part of the greatest day I’ve ever had on a racecourse and decided he shouldn’t be double figures. With the benefit of hindsight, I’m ok admitting that 10s back then (May it would have been) was not the best price actually. Especially now he’s still 15/2.

That being said, Min and DDS are my two for the face and I’m sticking with them for now. At 15/2 and 22/1 right now, they’re the two best priced horses in the race as well I’d say. Which makes my previous bets on them relatively poor as anything could have happened in these last seven months.

[ComplyOrDie]

I think you're quoting exceptions rather than the rule CoD.
The way French horses are trained is different, they just brush hurdles at 2 and fences at 3, they generally peak sooner and regress earlier.
You get UK/Ire bred 11/12 and even 13yo holding their form, Perfect Candidate a great example, but realistically you would not be expecting them to peak at 12, they are probably at their best at 9, in other words their 4th/5th year racing, translate that to French breds and they probably peak as a 6yo/7yo though with occasional exceptions...

But Perfect Candidate is an exception. How many 13 year olds win an open handicap like he did, whether they are French or UK/Ire bred? Also worth noting the trip, a staying trip on ridiculously heavy ground where only 3 of the 11 horses actually finished the race. The time before he got stuffed over 3m.

In Defi we're not talking about a horse that is 9 or 10, Defi will be 8, so he can still fit that occasional exception. It helps he has been running over 2m too I feel. The option to go back out in trip, with a slightly slower tempo, is likely to suit, and improvement can come for a step up.

I'm happy to stick by him with the pattern that I noted previously, and I'll look forward to his next entry, where hopefully it will be one up in trip.

[Istabraq]

But Perfect Candidate is an exception. How many 13 year olds win an open handicap like he did, whether they are French or UK/Ire bred?

I gave Perfect Candidate as an example of an exception CoD.
I can't think of any French bred 12/13yo that is still rating let along winning, no doubt there will be one or two I missed but the fact remain French breds regress earlier than UK/Ire breds given their earlier exploits.
There have been a few older Cross country French breds that raced at the top level over the age of 10, Garde Champetre and L'Ami spring to mind, it seems that code enables horses to maintain their level as a rule though.
None of this is relevant to the Defi debate, personally I can't dismiss regression but you/others will no doubt hold a different view, time will tell...

[Kevloaf]

Oh my goodness, the Peterborough Chase being held at Cheltenham..... what about the stat that the Peterborough Chase winner cannot possibly win the Ryanair. I'm sure that was someone still active that said that.... the last time it was moved.

They were right, they winner didn't win (Top Notch I think?)

[Pendil]

I think regression can happen to any horse at any point. I don't buy into the theory about whether they are French bred or not, for example, Min is a French bred, and won the Ryanair aged 9, Un De Sceaux too, who won G1's aged 9, 10 & 11, as well as Sprinter Sacre, who won two G1's aged 10, including the QMCC. If they're good enough, they'll continue to perform, this includes the UK/Ire bred horses also.

Defi Du Seuil will be 8, as you noted.

Defi Du Seuil can chuck in absolute stinkers, he done it at the start of his career outside of juvenile company, and also in his first ever start over fences. In fact, with the exception of his Juvenile hurdling career, he actually never comes back from any sort of half decent break very well. He needs runs in him.

His form when coming off the back of a break of 50+ days or more reads 1st (his first juvenile hurdle run), 4th of 5, 7th of 8, 5th of 5, 4th of 5 & PU. His form running within 50 days of each run is a row of 1's (12 of them) with the odd 2nd place in there, and one of them 2nd place efforts, the one behind Chacun Pour Soi @ Punchestown was a 49 day break, so right on the cusp. I think it is a fairly obvious pattern with him.

Sorry to be picky COD but you missed a win in there when he won 2019 Schloer after 199 day break