Ryanair Chase 2021

[Attaglance]

I'd be surprised if he goes unbeaten between now + March, he has 0 Cheltenham form + is unlikely to be their no.1 come March. Think it's decent of PP/BF to actually stick their neck out- too easy to follow the crowd and lazily cut after a win.

On the other hand, according to RPRs he's run a 166 today which only leaves him 7 off winning last year's Ryanair...

PP decent, mmm don’t think it, more like they know Easy Game not going near the Ryanair / 3rd or 4th choice for Mullins and they are happy to pick up losing bets on Easy Game while other bookies slash the price like mad.

Easy Game is a horse that will pick up a few decent pots this season if placed correctly by Willie, but not the Ryanair IMHO.

[Saxon Warrior]

PP decent, mmm don’t think it, more like they know Easy Game not going near the Ryanair / 3rd or 4th choice for Mullins and they are happy to pick up losing bets on Easy Game while other bookies slash the price like mad.

Easy Game is a horse that will pick up a few decent pots this season if placed correctly by Willie, but not the Ryanair IMHO.

I know Gordon Elliott is a Betfair Ambassador, but I thought Willie was a Racing Post man.

Then they did push Ballyadam out to 33/1 for the Ballymore, then had to cut him back to 20/1

The no doubt know a fair bit about the yards, but not everything, not even the trainers know everything about their horses potential to improve.

[jack1092]

PP decent, mmm don’t think it, more like they know Easy Game not going near the Ryanair / 3rd or 4th choice for Mullins and they are happy to pick up losing bets on Easy Game while other bookies slash the price like mad.

Easy Game is a horse that will pick up a few decent pots this season if placed correctly by Willie, but not the Ryanair IMHO.

Which would you rather, bookies cutting after 1 impressive run- which majority do regardless, or a bookie who takes a view?

I touched on the fact he wouldn't be no.1 as well..

[jack1092]

2nd year chasers can improve a right lump, or go downhill, particularly horses the age of Easy Game.
Given the 33/1 is with cashout, it’s a limited downside too.
His next race, possibly at Gowran in 4 weeks in the mid-trip Grade 2 could tell us whether he is a 2nd year big improver or not (like Kemboy at the same age - and he just put up a run 10lbs better on his seasonal debut than Kemboy did at the same stage of his career).

TBF, he's a fair bit more exposed than Kemboy was, but it's possible!

[Quevega]

Easy Game looks like this race was an early season target and may or may not be in the A team for cheltenham in March !
But there's a load of shit got to happen first.

Anyone who thinks PP have been given a list of horses and Cheltenham targets and multiple permutations from Willie & Gordon are being daft.
They're just being bookies.
Making financial and educated risks & they (PP) may be more educated on some stables than others, but they don't always KNOW.

[Attaglance]

Which would you rather, bookies cutting after 1 impressive run- which majority do regardless, or a bookie who takes a view?

I touched on the fact he wouldn't be no.1 as well..

Agree with you much rather a bookie take a view than cut the price straight away. I am not having a go at all...

Just making the point that I don’t rate Easy Game and me personally I won’t be wasting any money on him even with cash out available.

With PP leaving him at 33/1 they are more than happy to take money on him. I am certainly not saying as Q is suggesting they have a list of horses / targets, but they are certainly well educated and have plenty of experts etc to do their homework!!

[opatcho]

All this does is give the Marsh form a bit of a boost

I think the Marsh will end up being stronger than the Arkle, tbh I already think it is

[Saxon Warrior]

Easy Game looks like this race was an early season target and may or may not be in the A team for cheltenham in March !
But there's a load of shit got to happen first.

Anyone who thinks PP have been given a list of horses and Cheltenham targets and multiple permutations from Willie & Gordon are being daft.
They're just being bookies.
Making financial and educated risks & they (PP) may be more educated on some stables than others, but they don't always KNOW.

Absolutely

[Dessie the great]

All this does is give the Marsh form a bit of a boost

I think the Marsh will end up being stronger than the Arkle, tbh I already think it is

Whats your reasoning behind that thought?

[opatcho]

Whats your reasoning behind that thought?

Yeah sure... and again, this is why I've started to post more in this forum - great to expose your thinking and have other comment back, especially if it help change your mind and you end up on the winner.

So.

I was a fan of Fakir D'oudairies last year and backed him for the Arkle before his first chase. The only concern I had with him was his age and losing his age allowance at the turn of the year. 7lbs is a lot to be loses in a space of 3 months. So although he was a good AP bet at the start of the season, where he could make sure of that 7lbs, his chances to win the Arkle would have been reduced without the allowance.

If they raced again, next season, under same conditions, I'd have Fakir to win that race.

However I need to make a judgement on that Arkle. We're still guessing what PTKO and Fakir will do when they are exposed in open company. Was so really looking forward to seeing PTKO run over the weekend to help put a stake down and start drawing some conclusions - sadly we were denied this opportunity

The Marsh on the otherhand, had Faugheen, Samcro and Melon. All top rated hurdlers - arguably in their time. Are they top top top chaser, probably not but they certainly set a high benchmark. Hence my "I think the Marsh will end up being stronger... tbf I think it already is" comment based on what we know now.

The Arkle form is still up in the air for me

If I had to rate the main novices in terms of which will produce quality Grade 1 winners this season

1) Ballymore
2) Supreme
- I think the for line with Darver Star helps confirm these two races were strong
- Envoi Allen has a high probability of being a star and I think the two behind him will do well
- Aba is solid and I expect him to maintain mid to high 160's mark. Shishkin, yet to jump a fence but could be very good. I also think Chantry House will prove to be a solid chaser over further
3) RSA
- Tricky one, how good are Allaho and Minella given how champ ran them down. Hmmmm
4) Marsh
- mainly because of age, Faugheen will win one more race. Melon and Samcro will feature at fez
5) Arkle
- I just dont fancy PTKO or Fakir in open company. Everyone has their view, based on my experience and knowledge - I have it down as the weakest out of the novice

This is my viewpoint now. However, one of the most importance lessons I learnt last season is to remain open, things change, and don't be afraid to re-baseline once these novices run in open company and prove me wrong

[jack1092]

Opatcho i'd agree with your view on the Arkle being the weakest!

[Kevloaf]

Opatcho i'd agree with your view on the Arkle being the weakest!

Yeah I do overall too.... at first I thought opatcho meant this years Marsh will be stronger than the Arkle though.....


but either way, it's the Ryanair thread.....






Patrick Mullins with comments regarding this being the best race for Allaho - very pleased to hear that.

[Kevloaf]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LN1O9pJjO50&feature=youtu.be

31 mins 10 seconds for Allaho fans. Or haters.

[Ray]

Wonder if this means there is a possibility of CP having 2 darts for this race then? I dont think APT will be in the champ chase personally

[Lobos]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LN1O...ature=youtu.be

31 mins 10 seconds for Allaho fans. Or haters.

This is all going too well. I thought these Mullins bods were hard to call ?