Originally posted by Quevega
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Queen Mother Champion Chase 2021
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Originally posted by Quevega View Post
She's not though is she ?
Statistically it's not even close as to what ground she has ran her best races.
Coleman said after her Shloer win that they were going to pull her out of the Arkle trial the year before because of the ground and that connections were surprised at how well she handled it.
All her form in her early career was on good ground, she beat gypsy island in a maiden hurdle on good ground before running an absolute shocker in a hurdle race at Limerick on heavy a month later. You wouldnt have picked her out as a future arkle winner that day. She ran another average race in Gowran in a hcap off 111 on heavy before she went on a winning spree on good and yielding ground during the summer.
I think the ground in Gowran was nearly firm that day, there was a load of non runners. She could be a good bit better on good ground or she might have just strengthened up and managed to get through the sticky stuff better as her career developed. On all her form good ground wont be a disadvantage to her anyways.
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Originally posted by Lobos View Post
She can use her fabulous jumping ability to better effect on better ground. Can dictate her race and put pressure on other horses jumping. She was very good in her 'Summer ' season where she improved dramatically. She'll definitely appreciate better Spring ground.
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Originally posted by Dessie the great View Post
I think she has just shown improvement through her career.
Coleman said after her Shloer win that they were going to pull her out of the Arkle trial the year before because of the ground and that connections were surprised at how well she handled it.
All her form in her early career was on good ground, she beat gypsy island in a maiden hurdle on good ground before running an absolute shocker in a hurdle race at Limerick on heavy a month later. You wouldnt have picked her out as a future arkle winner that day. She ran another average race in Gowran in a hcap off 111 on heavy before she went on a winning spree on good and yielding ground during the summer.
I think the ground in Gowran was nearly firm that day, there was a load of non runners. She could be a good bit better on good ground or she might have just strengthened up and managed to get through the sticky stuff better as her career developed. On all her form good ground wont be a disadvantage to her anyways.
I wasn't saying she won't run her race, whatever the ground. As I believe she's not ground dependant myself, but does seem to lack the sustained pace required at this level. She'll have to be perfect and the others falter to win this race.
I was Just disputing the categoric statement made originally, which was nonsense.
Lobos
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Her two best performances for me were her two In her Arkle year at Cheltenham . Pinged every fence and jumped for fun out of decent fresh ground. Deep ground just doesn't play to her strengths at all. I doubt she'll be good enough to beat Chacun but she will give him a proper race and test him to the full.
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Originally posted by Quevega View Post
You can pick and choose pieces of form from early in her career, all you like, if it makes you feel better about your thoughts or bets on her.
I wasn't saying she won't run her race, whatever the ground. As I believe she's not ground dependant myself, but does seem to lack the sustained pace required at this level. She'll have to be perfect and the others falter to win this race.
I was Just disputing the categoric statement made originally, which was nonsense.
Lobos
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Originally posted by Lobos View PostHer two best performances for me were her two In her Arkle year at Cheltenham . Pinged every fence and jumped for fun out of decent fresh ground. Deep ground just doesn't play to her strengths at all. I doubt she'll be good enough to beat Chacun but she will give him a proper race and test him to the full.
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Originally posted by Dessie the great View Post
What is going to keep her out of the first three though? She will need everything to go right to beat Chacun and for him to under perform but is she not the most likely to finish 2nd?
Altior is a dual QMCC winner.
Politilogue is the reigning QM Champion Chaser.
Nube Negra on the improve.
Whilst I like her a lot, I don't think she should be 2nd fav.... if she was, she'd drift....
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Originally posted by Quevega View Post
The betting looks about right to me.
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