Queen Mother Champion Chase 2021

[Carnage at Taunton]

I think much of the positivity is due to the fact that we was available at 66/1 as they crossed the line and a few of us managed to get on at a big price.

do I think Rouge Vif win? No
do I think he has a better chance than a 66/1 shot? Yes

Well he werent anywhere near 66 when i backed him sadly, when was that?
I just like the horse on ground that suits him.

[Quevega]

Yep.
Not crabbing anyone that backed him at fancy prices at all.
I wouldn't agree with some of the reasoning (price excepted), but that's another discussion.
That's the game we're all playing.
We'll all make good calls and bad calls, and bad calls that come good and good calls that turn bad for that matter.

Some people called it one of the great weight carrying feats of modern times, admittedly one of them was Luke Harvey who is the human epitome of the excited spittle around someone's mouth.

The other one I recall (a former contributor on here) is about as far away from excitement as you can imagine (Love You KB , please return)

[ComplyOrDie]

Well he werent anywhere near 66 when i backed him sadly, when was that?
I just like the horse on ground that suits him.

Before he won the handicap.

I completely agree about needing the right ground, however, I know someone that doesn't agree with us....pfft!

[Carnage at Taunton]

Before he won the handicap.

I completely agree about needing the right ground, however, I know someone that doesn't agree with us....pfft!

Typical!! Too bloody slow, would love 66 e/W

[Leman14]

Well he werent anywhere near 66 when i backed him sadly, when was that?
I just like the horse on ground that suits him.

A couple of bookies (eg. Virgin) were slow to react and he was available at 66's for a few minutes after crossing the line.

[Spectre]

Do you fancy her to trouble Chacun if he takes to Cheltenham ?

Probably not if he's at his very best. However they must return to the tactics that served them well last season and get to the front, which will stop Townend dictating his own pace on Chacun Pour Soi. He's looked like a Rolls Royce when he's been able to run his own race.

We know she stays well, pings her fences when she gets a clear sight of them, and she's tough and hard to pass. If they get the fractions right it's not impossible her 7lb allowance won't be the difference when they're all tiring up the hill. If she has her head in front off a strong pace after the last I think she has a chance.

Do I think she's the likely winner? No. But I think she's the best alternative to the favourite,ause I can't see any other circumstances other than these that could get Chacun beat. What tactics could any other horse deploy or change to beat him?

[Olliemagern]

Probably not if he's at his very best. However they must return to the tactics that served them well last season and get to the front, which will stop Townend dictating his own pace on Chacun Pour Soi. He's looked like a Rolls Royce when he's been able to run his own race.

We know she stays well, pings her fences when she gets a clear sight of them, and she's tough and hard to pass. If they get the fractions right it's not impossible her 7lb allowance won't be the difference when they're all tiring up the hill. If she has her head in front off a strong pace after the last I think she has a chance.

Do I think she's the likely winner? No. But I think she's the best alternative to the favourite,ause I can't see any other circumstances other than these that could get Chacun beat. What tactics could any other horse deploy or change to beat him?

Politologue will ensure this is strongly run I’d say even if they didn’t send put the kettle on

[DenmanSacre]

Probably not if he's at his very best. However they must return to the tactics that served them well last season and get to the front, which will stop Townend dictating his own pace on Chacun Pour Soi. He's looked like a Rolls Royce when he's been able to run his own race.

We know she stays well, pings her fences when she gets a clear sight of them, and she's tough and hard to pass. If they get the fractions right it's not impossible her 7lb allowance won't be the difference when they're all tiring up the hill. If she has her head in front off a strong pace after the last I think she has a chance.

Do I think she's the likely winner? No. But I think she's the best alternative to the favourite,ause I can't see any other circumstances other than these that could get Chacun beat. What tactics could any other horse deploy or change to beat him?

When has CPS dictated the pace throughout the race? He usually tracks the leaders and has mainly then took it up 3/4 out and put the race to bed before the last. Last time he did it just before the final fence and strolled to the line up the Leopardstown hill. If he does the same at Cheltenham and leaves it late, the Cheltenham Hill will be no bother.

I think the Mullins camp will love Notebook or PTKO to set a strong pace from the get go as that will be ideal for CPS. His best runs have been when there has been a strong pace - the last race Notebook set a good gallop, Annamix went strong from the go at Christmas and Min and Ornua ensured a good gallop at the DRF in 2020.

If they go to slow, CPS will burn them mid race and of they go quick, he can wait between the 2nd last and last to make his move.

[Quevega]

When has CPS dictated the pace throughout the race? He usually tracks the leaders and has mainly then took it up 3/4 out and put the race to bed before the last. Last time he did it just before the final fence and strolled to the line up the Leopardstown hill. If he does the same at Cheltenham and leaves it late, the Cheltenham Hill will be no bother.

I think the Mullins camp will love Notebook or PTKO to set a strong pace from the get go as that will be ideal for CPS. His best runs have been when there has been a strong pace - the last race Notebook set a good gallop, Annamix went strong from the go at Christmas and Min and Ornua ensured a good gallop at the DRF in 2020.

If they go to slow, CPS will burn them mid race and of they go quick, he can wait between the 2nd last and last to make his move.

Agreed.
And they almost made a point of holding onto him the last day for a lot longer, just to see if he could pick them off and finish the race stronger rather than grind them down from three or four out.
And he did.
The issue at Cheltenham is if anything is good enough to still take him with them down the hill.
If not it'll possibly be a long way home or a glorious one.

[Spectre]

When has CPS dictated the pace throughout the race?

That wasn't what I said. I said dictates his own pace, not 'the' pace.

[Dessie the great]

When has CPS dictated the pace throughout the race? He usually tracks the leaders and has mainly then took it up 3/4 out and put the race to bed before the last. Last time he did it just before the final fence and strolled to the line up the Leopardstown hill. If he does the same at Cheltenham and leaves it late, the Cheltenham Hill will be no bother.

I think the Mullins camp will love Notebook or PTKO to set a strong pace from the get go as that will be ideal for CPS. His best runs have been when there has been a strong pace - the last race Notebook set a good gallop, Annamix went strong from the go at Christmas and Min and Ornua ensured a good gallop at the DRF in 2020.

If they go to slow, CPS will burn them mid race and of they go quick, he can wait between the 2nd last and last to make his move.

The only difference is that PTKO wont be stopping going up the hill like Notebook, who fell into a hole after the last in Lep.

I agree, if they send her to the front or upsides Politalogue from the start she could be hard to pass, she has a fantastic attitude

[DenmanSacre]

The only difference is that PTKO wont be stopping going up the hill like Notebook, who fell into a hole after the last in Lep.

I agree, if they send her to the front or upsides Politalogue from the start she could be hard to pass, she has a fantastic attitude

The same Notebook who beat her at Christmas, although I can accept a change in tactics may prove a difference (and I would expect her to be ahead of Notebook at Cheltenham as she has proven form there and Notebook doesn't seem to like the track). CPS also wasn't stopping up the hill in his last 2 races and I wouldn't expect the main protagonists at Cheltenham to either.

This year has shown that last years novices were pretty terrible. PTKO isn't going to lay a glove on CPS. Her form just doesn't stack up. She beat Fakir by 1 and a half lengths after his awful jump at the 2nd last (but jumping is the game) . She's beat Duc Des Genievres this season by a length and half, who has been awful since. And she was beat by CPS by 8+ lengths at Christmas.

If there's a w/o favourite market, she might be an okay price but Politalogue and Altior set a good standard and there are horses like her who could show improvement again. I do hope however that she runs well as connections deserve applause for going for the Arkle this year and the CC this year when there are easier races to target.

[Dessie the great]

The same Notebook who beat her at Christmas, although I can accept a change in tactics may prove a difference (and I would expect her to be ahead of Notebook at Cheltenham as she has proven form there and Notebook doesn't seem to like the track). CPS also wasn't stopping up the hill in his last 2 races and I wouldn't expect the main protagonists at Cheltenham to either.

This year has shown that last years novices were pretty terrible. PTKO isn't going to lay a glove on CPS. Her form just doesn't stack up. She beat Fakir by 1 and a half lengths after his awful jump at the 2nd last (but jumping is the game) . She's beat Duc Des Genievres this season by a length and half, who has been awful since. And she was beat by CPS by 8+ lengths at Christmas.

If there's a w/o favourite market, she might be an okay price but Politalogue and Altior set a good standard and there are horses like her who could show improvement again. I do hope however that she runs well as connections deserve applause for going for the Arkle this year and the CC this year when there are easier races to target.

Not a take I would agree with.

I will address it point by point.

1. Last years novices were terrible

Rouge Vif won a big hcap off a rating in the high 150s. He is now rated in the 163 and was 3rd in an open G1. He was beaten 20ls in the Arkle.

PTKO on won the G2 Shloer despite not going a yard on the ground and having to be ridden by the outside ditch just to get around giving up prob 20ls to the runner up in ground. She finished 3rd in an open G1 in a track that didnt suit and while not been ridden to her strengths.

Notebook won a G2 for 2nd season novices and was 2nd in an open G1 v Chacun. He was beaten 25+ls in the Arkle

Nube Negra was well beaten by Rouge Vif and Esprit the large last season (both were stuffed in the arkle) and has won the G2 at Kempton beating your standard bearer Altior comfortably.

Fakir Doudarie 2nd in an open G1 in his first run in open company over 2 miles. Was beaten comfirtably in the arkle, the winner idled the whole way up the straight and picked up again 100 yatds from the line when the lose horse came to her. She had plenty left.

First Flow (not considered good enough for open novice G1s) stuffed your other standard bearer Politalogue last time in an open G1 while he was rated in the high 150s.

If you think that form is terrible I would love to see what you classify as good form. A couple of G2 wins, a G1 win and lots of G1 places.


Poliatalogue and Altior set a good standard?? Really?

I could end up with egg on my face but PTKO arkle was 2 secs quicker on worse ground than the CC. They both set their own pace and you would imagine PTKO has more scope for improvement only turning 7. He won a poor tingle creek beating Rouge Vif by 8ls. PTKO beat him by 20ls in the Arkle. He was stuffed by a horse rated in the high 150s.

Altior hasnt run a good race in 2 years. Stuffed by Nube Negra who wouldnt have placed in last years Arkle.

Yes Notebook beat PTKO in Lep. The trainer widely reported before the race and since that the track wouldnt suit her and she was supposed to run in Kempton but couldnt travel. They needed the run at Christmas and stuck to their plan even though it didnt suit. She also got an iffy ride. Notebook is at his best around Lep having won 2 G1s there last year. He wont figure around Cheltenham. Hence why Nitebook was a shorter price than PTKO around Lep and its the other way around for the CC.

[Spectre]

That's a very good case for why I would also have PTKO clear second best behind Chacun Dessie. Never be afraid of one horse they say.

[Supermaster]

This race is hard to evaluate given the number of multiple bookings with the Ryanair etc. Will the impressive Chacun Pour Soi frighten many off leading to a small field?
Will the enigmatic Altior regain his crown? Will Politologue retain his?

Having looked again at First Flow's run in the Clarence House there seemed to be no fluke about his clear win over Politologue and Waiting Patiently. Admittedly most of his win sequence has been in lower grade races but you can only win and it's not a good idea to get in the way of a horse clearly on a roll and used to winning.
Lack of good Cheltenham form is a negative but that applies to the odds on CPS as well. All First Flow's wins have been on soft/heavy but does that mean he can't act on better ground?

Cilaos Emery was a decent 4th in last year's Champion Hurdle and has some good chase form. So looking for value against the favourite:

Politologue, First Flow, Cilaos Emery.

Also Cheltenham specialist Put the Kettle On needs to be considered but will she go for the easier mares' chase on the Friday instead?