Queen Mother Champion Chase 2021

[DenmanSacre]

Would you be wise enough to suggest 13 months in advance any clues as we stand at this precise moment that would be ‘better value’ than 16/1???

I have an inkling (only a tiny one) that you might be right with the ultimate distance Energumene might be going come next year, but I would have to disagree that there ‘would be better’ 16/1 shots between now and the festival. Not as I type these words out there isn’t. Not a 6 or 7 year old out there that I can think of that would be value at 16’s tonight for next years Champion Chase? Surely??

I think you've misunderstood. I'm not suggesting there is a better 16/1 shot for the Champion Chase in 2022. What I'm saying is that between now and the 2022 Cheltenham Festival, there will be better value found than sticking money on a horse that has to come through a race against Shishkin, stay uninjured over the summer and show more improvement to be better than CPS and the other current 2m chasers. I just don't see 16/1 being value.

Same as the 9/2 for Shishkin for a race in 13 months time. Ludicrous value but in 12 months time, it could look like a good ticket. But there's a very good chance he gets beat by Energumene or another horse in the Arkle and/or CPS bolts up in the CC and Shishkin's price could be the same or higher for next year.

[Kevloaf]

I think you've misunderstood. I'm not suggesting there is a better 16/1 shot for the Champion Chase in 2022. What I'm saying is that between now and the 2022 Cheltenham Festival, there will be better value found than sticking money on a horse that has to come through a race against Shishkin, stay uninjured over the summer and show more improvement to be better than CPS and the other current 2m chasers. I just don't see 16/1 being value.

Same as the 9/2 for Shishkin for a race in 13 months time. Ludicrous value but in 12 months time, it could look like a good ticket. But there's a very good chance he gets beat by Energumene or another horse in the Arkle and/or CPS bolts up in the CC and Shishkin's price could be the same or higher for next year.

Exactly.

I can't believe this needs to be explained.

Well, I can, but it is boring.

[Outlaw]

Mick Fitzgerald just said he's sitting on 20-1 ew Altior.
Has that ever been a price ?

He went a general 12s and14 in the odd place after the Desert Orchid, feck knows where he has pulled that from.

[EnvoyAllen]

But I’ve got enough points on Shishkin for next year’s Champion Chase at 14/1 to not to have to worry about it.

I just thought Energumene wasn’t a bad ‘cover’ as we currently sit with all known racing history, and Chacun being 10.

It didn’t feel the world’s worst ante price a year out, based on anything and everything we’ve seen so far.

[Kevloaf]

But I’ve got enough points on Shishkin for next year’s Champion Chase at 14/1 to not to have to worry about it.

I just thought Energumene wasn’t a bad ‘cover’ as we currently sit with all known racing history, and Chacun being 10.

It didn’t feel the world’s worst ante price a year out, based on anything and everything we’ve seen so far.

It makes sense for you.... but then again when you argued with Quevega that you wouldn't bother laying off your position, it seems a bit inconsistent.

I won't carry on.

[Dessie the great]

Fakir was very good today too back at 2m- didn’t expect that.

I think he ran his race, I dont think Notebook ran his, maybe from forcing the pace or some other reason Im not sure but he has beaten Fakir a couple of times comfortably in the last year away from Cheltenham

[Dessie the great]

They were carrying 23 pounds more and beat Wave over the Sea (currently rated 133 but likely to go up to 138ish) by 2.7 seconds so around 11-12 pounds worth. 170ish type performance on the clock without being extended. Yeah I'd say that's pretty impressive from both.

Rowlands has CPS being 1.4 seconds quicker from the flag and 0.4s quicker from the first fence.

Fakir is rated 159, beaten 8ls puts Chacun mid/high 160s.

In relation to the hcap

The winner is rated 131 receiving 23lbs and say 12 lbs for the time difference puts Chacun running to a mid 160s mark. (I dont know why you are using a mark he might go to, thats irrelevent in the context of these two races)

The 2nd Top Moon rated 131 giving him 20lbs plus 12 lbs for the time difference puts him to a mid 160s mark.

The 3rd The Shunter rated 134 giving 19lbs and say 13lbs for time difference again puts him to a mid 160s

So I would have Chacun running to somewhere between 165 and 168 today. Thought his performance at Christmas was better to be honest and that he ran to a higher mark there.

Could he win a Champion Chase with that run? Absolutely

Should the rest be afraid to take him on in March? Abdolutely not

[Istabraq]

Fakir ran an absolute blinder too which brings them E/W tickets back into play.

One of the rare bright spots from yesterdays efforts (re Cheltenham) and should now come here after the talk of further all season.
Assuming Chacun avoids colds and stones they are all playing for place money...

[DenmanSacre]

In relation to the hcap

The winner is rated 131 receiving 23lbs and say 12 lbs for the time difference puts Chacun running to a mid 160s mark. (I dont know why you are using a mark he might go to, thats irrelevent in the context of these two races)

Fair enough if you think a big field handicap at the DRF is won by a horse running to its mark and not having to run above it.

I don't think there is much in it between the Xmas and DRF run - one he took it up earlier with his mid-late burst that we saw in races last season, whereas he took it up just before the last yesterday, won by a large margin and was not extended.

Not that I particularly agree with the RPRs in general but Racing Post rated both CPS races 176. Fakir was rated 166 for yesterday - 1 pound higher than his run in the Arkle. WOTS RPR was 140 so they also think the handicap winner showed some improvement on his previous rating.

[Dessie the great]

Fair enough if you think a big field handicap at the DRF is won by a horse running to its mark and not having to run above it.

I don't think there is much in it between the Xmas and DRF run - one he took it up earlier with his mid-late burst that we saw in races last season, whereas he took it up just before the last yesterday, won by a large margin and was not extended.

Not that I particularly agree with the RPRs in general but Racing Post rated both CPS races 176. Fakir was rated 166 for yesterday - 1 pound higher than his run in the Arkle. WOTS RPR was 140 so they also think the handicap winner showed some improvement on his previous rating.

Thats fair enough.

I think his main market rivals ran below form. Min was obviously pulled up and I would make Notebook fav to beat Fakir in a match race in Lep over 2 miles in a months time.

So while it looked impressive I thought Christmas was a bit better and I think the times show it wasnt an out of this world performance or a "all he has to do is turn up to win a champion chase" performance

[opatcho]

Assuming Chacun avoids colds and stones they are all playing for place money...

Yup... I've tried my best to get something to beat Chacun.

Falling a cold and stone bruise, I have Altior ready to give CPS a little bite #champagefeverstyle

[Kevloaf]

Betfred are 20/1
NRNB

For Min in this race.



That is absolutely STUPID.


Of course, he's just pulled up and CPS looked imperious....


but there is 0% chance Min runs unless CPS is injured.



Given Mullins has others for the Ryanair (Allaho and Melon)..... but no 'back up' in this race.... 20/1 is insane...


If CPS gets injured, Min here is much more likely.... and 20/1!???!!!!





Obviously it's tying up money.... but fuck me... Min ain't a 20/1 shot.


I backed Min NRNB at 8/1


I honestly believe 20/1 NRNB is the best bet I've ever seen. Zero risk, on a horse that would be fav if he turned up.

[ToniC]

Skybet have got chacun at 7/4 for this with the bet club boost. Miles better value than the Shishkin special last week IMO. Absolute wheelbarrow job if you’ve got enough sympathetic friends with accounts that can get on for you. NRNB too, which more important with this one than most perhaps.

[Garrison Savannah]

Skybet have got chacun at 7/4 for this with the bet club boost. Miles better value than the Shishkin special last week IMO. Absolute wheelbarrow job if you’ve got enough sympathetic friends with accounts that can get on for you. NRNB too, which more important with this one than most perhaps.

You’d need a lot of friends when they restrict you to ?2.50...

[ToniC]

You’d need a lot of friends when they restrict you to ?2.50...

Yeah depends if they’re winning accounts or not I suppose? I opened one in my Mrs details last week for the Shishkin & envoi double and they let me get 20 euro on with a brand new account, so I’d assume that’s the standard if you’re not up/don’t look like you know what you’re doing