Queen Mother Champion Chase 2021

[Kevloaf]

Notebook will take plenty of beating if back to pre Cheltenham form

Might get a decent price after his arkle flop too

Easy to forget he gave fakir 7lbs and a beating

Honestly think Notebook is the best of this lot, with the exception of Allaho but would be totally the wrong trip for him & he wont turn up. Beat Fakir fair & square at Christmas giving him weight too, would I be in a hurry to back him for the Champion Chase however is a different prospect entirely.

I would be more forgiving of his Arkle performance than most perhaps, it was on the back of a very hard race in the Irish Arkle a few weeks prior and he'd probably had one race too many prior to the festival & everything went wrong for him with the false start & subsequent standing start however a horse bombing like that at Cheltenham would always be a worry and thats before you add in his propensity for pre-race antics.

Those at the head of the market have got their own question marks though, with Altior off the back of an odd season and soon to be 11 and CPS being made of play dough, he's with the right trainer for it on raw ability alone I am tempted by the 33/1 - wouldn't quite be sold yet, but if he does run & runs well then I've probably missed the boat

Melon has far superior 2m form to any of them doesn't he?

Not saying he's the one to beat for this race or anything, as his best 2m form is at Cheltenham in March over hurdles....but still, he's not to be ignored...

[FinalFurlong91]

Doubt he will run with mullins talking about him being a potential stayer

[Lobos]

I'd be worried looking at that if I was a Honeysuckle supporter

She won't beat Epatante if she's improved again from last season for sure.

[Kevloaf]

Doubt he will run with mullins talking about him being a potential stayer

Yeah he might not....as has been highlighted correctly so many times though, distances for Mullins runners on first run of the season isn't always the most important factor in where they end up.


Would be surprising though I agree.

[Lobos]

Hendo mentioned Epatante is a week ahead of Altior so not sure if that makes any difference.

It will definitely to Tingle supporters . He looked way off it there.

[Kevloaf]

She won't beat Epatante if she's improved again from last season for sure.

For sure?!??

How can it be for sure?

You've literally only seen her run against ALTIOR, who in another thread you are literally writing off?


If Altior is gone at the game, surely beating him isn't proof that she's improved.



Technically, if she's improved so much, should we be UPGRADING Altior's work there, as he managed to keep up with her, which must be impossible as she is now an absolute superstar who is even better in the gallop today than she was winning the Champion Hurdle?




Can you at least acknowledge the point I'm making?

[Lobos]

For sure?!??

How can it be for sure?

You've literally only seen her run against ALTIOR, who in another thread you are literally writing off?


If Altior is gone at the game, surely beating him isn't proof that she's improved.



Technically, if she's improved so much, should we be UPGRADING Altior's work there, as he managed to keep up with her, which must be impossible as she is now an absolute superstar who is even better in the gallop today than she was winning the Champion Hurdle?




Can you at least acknowledge the point I'm making?

No idea what you are going on about
Barry Geraghty said she's improved from last season. I wasn't basing that on her gallop!

[ToniC]

Melon has far superior 2m form to any of them doesn't he?

Not saying he's the one to beat for this race or anything, as his best 2m form is at Cheltenham in March over hurdles....but still, he's not to be ignored...

Hard to know what to make of Melon for me. His hurdles form is definitely the best of the lot, but Notebook beat him soundly enough over 2 miles last season, and I don't think the JLT form will turn out to be very good at all if I'm honest. The Notebook we saw winning the racing post chase last Christmas would be a serious contender in the 2 mile division this year for me, and if he can just learn to settle before his races a bit better after the summer off he could be an absolute weapon

[Kevloaf]

Hard to know what to make of Melon for me. His hurdles form is definitely the best of the lot, but Notebook beat him soundly enough over 2 miles last season, and I don't think the JLT form will turn out to be very good at all if I'm honest. The Notebook we saw winning the racing post chase last Christmas would be a serious contender in the 2 mile division this year for me, and if he can just learn to settle before his races a bit better after the summer off he could be an absolute weapon

Yeah, all fair points ToniC

Watching brief for me I think, as Notebook whilst the upside is obvious, his downside is quite worrying too in terms of ante post for Cheltenham.

[Spectre]

Notebook wasn't beaten because of a hard race at the DRF. He was beaten because he's a nutcase. He went down the chute like a scalded cat, and Rachel couldn't stop him. He'd used up so much energy before the start he had no chance.

I do buy into him perhaps behaving better without a crowd though and I can see him beating those. He might be a decent price to do so when it's priced up too.

[Istabraq]

Notebook wasn't beaten because of a hard race at the DRF. He was beaten because he's a nutcase. He went down the chute like a scalded cat, and Rachel couldn't stop him. He'd used up so much energy before the start he had no chance.

Exactly this, and the false start just ended him !

Somewhere back in multiple threads are a number of comments around his chances being much improved if you take away 65,000 screaming racegoers.
For me he is one that can't be ignored if they race behind closed doors and until that decision is made I can't get onside, but I haven't forgotten him...

[Altior]

I've made that decision in my head already, absolutely no way there's a full crowd for Cheltenham, they'd be lucky if all owners and staff get in I'd say. Notebook has to be on the book for me. Should be managed much more kindly this season too.

As for the Altior gallops, I tend to not read much into these things, especially a seasoned chaser vs a mare hurdler.

[doctorwu]

Fakir D'oudairies entered up over 2 miles in the Poplar Square (won by Cilaos Emery last year) along with

Allaho
Annamix
Cash Back
Djingle
Eclair De Beafeu
Melon
Notebook

Fakir dude gotta be going QM surely

[opatcho]

Fakir D'oudairies entered up over 2 miles in the Poplar Square (won by Cilaos Emery last year) along with

Allaho
Annamix
Cash Back
Djingle
Eclair De Beafeu
Melon
Notebook

Ohhhhh..... interesting development

I've had a lot to say about Fakir, so I wont repeat it
I will say this, if they front run fakir and go all out then I'm confident he will win. I will see how they line up, and be ready to pull the trigger

Fakir will beat Notebook if Fakir front runs and sets and sustains a pace

[opatcho]

I'd be worried looking at that as an Altior supporter. He was being pushed just to keep level with a cantering Eptante.

I'm not worried

It's all about expectations. If you asked me before they went off, I would have said something like this

"Epantante is a looking like she could be a top class, speedy horse, she's nippy! Just have to look at her novice wins at Kempton and Exeter. She travels so well and she's ability to turn it up in the last furlong

Altior needs all of 2 miles, and he needs pace all the way through that distance. The way they beat Altior nowaday is if they go at a crawl and then try and out pace him.
I've yet to see anything that will outstand Altior over 2 miles, and nothing will outstand Altior up that Cheltenham hill - even at 11 year old. The day I see this happens will be the day I say Altior is on the way out

Altior style isnt pretty, its been like that for a while now. He more of a UDS than a Kauto Star.
You could drag Sprinter Sacre out of retirement and run Sprinter and Altior over a gallop, and Sprinter would look a millon dollars next to Altior

So... Altior vs Epatante over 1 mile. I would have expected Altior to have been pushed along... thats just his running style. Epatante, well I expected her to look sharp and grown out a bit more from last season, and make that trip look easy"

If your expected Altior to come out today and drag a 2 mile Champion hurdler around 1 mile, then I think people's expectations where way too high

I'm sure a vast number of us have never seen a horse prepare for a Grade 1 race, so I really dont know what to look for 4-5 weeks out from a major race. Are they 100% ready, are they 30% ready - I have no idea

I expect Altior to look sluggish. I expect Altior to have to fight on his hands to win the Tingle Creek - he isnt going to win it with lenghts to spare. That's were my expectations are right now, and if he meets those expectations then I would then expect him to go on and win in March - it won't be pretty, but I know who my money is and will be on as long as these expectations hold true

On another note.... I was smiling from ear to ear today watching that gallop... with 2020 being so cr*p, it was a joy watching these pair today!