Queen Mother Champion Chase 2021

[FinalFurlong91]

Im sure he did improve FF. He's never been to the fez, which is a big negative, I can't have him at all. PTKO looks very progressive & has won over 2 1/2m so I'll take her over anything in this race. Thats what got her home yesterday having not jumped fluently. As for Notebook, well he's been to the fez twice and we all know what happened. I also think the ratings afforded for some of the English trained horses is to be taken with a large dose of salt. A really good debate going on with this race.

When she beats a top horse il jump on the bandwagon

[Kevloaf]

Im sure he did improve FF. He's never been to the fez, which is a big negative, I can't have him at all. PTKO looks very progressive & has won over 2 1/2m so I'll take her over anything in this race. Thats what got her home yesterday having not jumped fluently. As for Notebook, well he's been to the fez twice and we all know what happened. I also think the ratings afforded for some of the English trained horses is to be taken with a large dose of salt. A really good debate going on with this race.

Have you got the stats for horses that have not been to the festival before?

I think it shows no Cheltenham experience isn't actually as bad as you'd think....however that is probably including novice hurdlers, which is different to an open class chaser.



I'd rather a horse have not gone to Cheltenham then been there and flopped. Although even then, Epatante, loads of Albert Bartlett horses?

Not going to Cheltenham I'm not sure is proven as a 'big negative', it's definitely not a positive, but 'big negative' is when you've been and failed, and even that's not always something to live and die by as I've just said?



What do you reckon?

[opatcho]

I'm going to end up doing the wallet on Altior before the TC, I know it...sigh.

Heart ruling over head already in November

Tell me about it!!!
It's going to be difficult to watch him race this season, similar to when Sprinter came back and started challenge in races

I backed Altior so I didnt have to worry about getting on him if he comes and confirms he still has it in the locker. However, I think I've made it twice as worse now given I'm invested emtional and with my hard earned credits lol

[opatcho]

Have you got the stats for horses that have not been to the festival before?

I think it shows no Cheltenham experience isn't actually as bad as you'd think....however that is probably including novice hurdlers, which is different to an open class chaser.



I'd rather a horse have not gone to Cheltenham then been there and flopped. Although even then, Epatante, loads of Albert Bartlett horses?

Not going to Cheltenham I'm not sure is proven as a 'big negative', it's definitely not a positive, but 'big negative' is when you've been and failed, and even that's not always something to live and die by as I've just said?


What do you reckon?

I think you have to look at the races in question

Novices - doesnt appear to matter whether they have experience or not. Most of the Irish novices would never have seen cheltenham ahead of the fez
For the big champion races - its a positive to have ran well at cheltenham before hand
Handicaps - again, another positive

About to re-watch PTKO's run this weekend. TBH, I was watching DDG for pretty much all of it lol
FFS, why am I slowly coming around to PTKO - arhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhh hhhhhhhhh

[opatcho]

BLOODY HELL!!!! Had to stop and re-watch Defi's jump at the first, did he think he was competing in the high jump at the Olympics

[jono]

Still a good bet

The thinking being that he either wins both races or neither of them

Personally I think it's now borderline for the special being a good bet at 14/1.
The idea behind it definitely is. I backed it a while ago. But at current prices it's another example of a special not necessarily being an enhancement.

7/4 currently for the Tingle Creek (?27.50 from a ?10 return)

What price for the CC with a win? If you're expecting a huge drop in price fair enough. I think there would be some 4/1 still around myself with CPS keeping the price up a tad.

So ?27.50 on at 4/1 = ?137.50 back

Approx 13/1.

A point less, but you then have the benefit of seeing the race.
If he scrambled home by the skin of his teeth, against a lesser rival...you may not be as fussed about adding him anymore, or the price would end up being better for you.
Maybe have cashout to hand too.

[jono]

If you had your 10 pounds - where you put it if not CPS?


I'll need some more time to think that over.....

What's the prices for the without Fav market then

PTKO definitely has a cracking chance to be involved in the places at the very least. Top shout for being so vocal on her from the off.
I still think she's got to improve to really trouble CPS. But my take on the race was always to try and pounce on an 11 year old and an injury prone fav who being beaten by A Plus Tard isn't bomb proof. I still don't think there's another horse in the market who can get to 170 or close. So it was judging how far Altior would drop and if CPS were to show / back up his best performances.

PTKO does at least have the 7lb allowance which could hep get her to the mid 160's potentially on hat basis.

I'd like to see her out again, on sightly better ground. I thought her guts and resolve won her the race at the weekend more than anything. Where as her previous victories, although showing a similar attitude had her jumping putting others under pressure. To really see how big a step forward she has taken over the summer. I think it's better than the weekend but I'm not sure it told us too much.

[Lobos]

What's the prices for the without Fav market then

PTKO definitely has a cracking chance to be involved in the places at the very least. Top shout for being so vocal on her from the off.
I still think she's got to improve to really trouble CPS. But my take on the race was always to try and pounce on an 11 year old and an injury prone fav who being beaten by A Plus Tard isn't bomb proof. I still don't think there's another horse in the market who can get to 170 or close. So it was judging how far Altior would drop and if CPS were to show / back up his best performances.

PTKO does at least have the 7lb allowance which could hep get her to the mid 160's potentially on hat basis.

I'd like to see her out again, on sightly better ground. I thought her guts and resolve won her the race at the weekend more than anything. Where as her previous victories, although showing a similar attitude had her jumping putting others under pressure. To really see how big a step forward she has taken over the summer. I think it's better than the weekend but I'm not sure it told us too much.

I don't think we'll see her in the TC so we'll have to wait for the Desert Orchid for her to prove how good she is. The TC might not take much winning so Altior could go his usual route after and take in the DO as well. We'll find out then I suspect. Clearly neither of them will meet Chancun until March, if he makes it there that is.

[Lobos]

When she beats a top horse il jump on the bandwagon

That'll be in the Champion Chase itself so you'll be too late for the bus

[YoungHustler]

Over simplifying but I don't think you can go wrong

• Chacun wins
• Altior a great ew bet as a saver

Forget the rest

Please don't tell me he's fragile ; he has been injury free since 2018 ; (Stone Bruises are not 'injuries')

If I could only have one bet it would be on Chacun.

I'm taking a stance on PTKO and don't want her but good luck to everyone who has. I think I've said this before but last year's Arkle was her perfect race where she pinged every fence but she didn't do that this weekend where her jumping was untidy at some fences and she won by outstaying DDG rather than being impressive IMO. DDG? He was absolutely shit last and winner of a very poor Arkle IMO in 2019. I know horses can improve for a change of yard but Willie Mullins isn't a bad trainer is he? Also IMO, I don't think De Bromhead thinks PTKO is his best 2m chaser - that would be Notebook but we'll see about that. Very happy to be proven wrong about PTKO and if she continues to be unbeaten, then I'll happily get on her when NRNB comes along, albeit at a much shorter price. Just my opinion all you PTKO fans so don't get on my back.

[FinalFurlong91]

That'll be in the Champion Chase itself so you'll be too late for the bus

Happy to miss a bus if it's only overtaken duc des genievres, fakir doudaries and al dancer

[YoungHustler]

Richard Johnson confirmed Defi is fine and just got tired. I've taken the 12s for the Tingle Creek and would back him for the Champion Chase at 20s if I wasn't already on(albeit at lower odds).

https://twitter.com/AtTheRaces/status/1328427750965846019?s=20

[Lobos]

Anyone see Altiors Newbury Gallop?

[Muswell]

Only this bit https://twitter.com/gbracing/status/...710317569?s=21

[Old Vic]

Haven’t checked but I suspect that’s a trend that goes back much further...

Newmill is probably the last not to have Cheltenham form and he had form around Navan and Naas which is the best you can get in Ireland imo.

https://www.skysports.com/racing/for...45/newmill-ire