Queen Mother Champion Chase 2021

[Muswell]

Nicky not the most reliable of correspondents either...

[Jorvik]

Aye i'd sooner trust Edward Scissorhands to wash my car than trust much of what NH says.

[Run4Home]

Over simplifying but I don't think you can go wrong

• Chacun wins
• Altior a great ew bet as a saver

Forget the rest

Please don't tell me he's fragile ; he has been injury free since 2018 ; (Stone Bruises are not 'injuries')

[charlie]

Please don't tell me he's fragile

Agree. To me his 'vulnerability' is ability retained with age, not overall fragility

[Kevloaf]

I agree, you should have Altior onside at 8/1 ew, but having him as the most likely winner is far from clear cut. He'll win the Tingle Creek and be cut to 4's though, so now's the time to get him onside for the price.

Looking at all of the markets. How many horses can you name that are trading at 10/1 that you'd be confident of a place at least, with a genuine chance of winning because of the doubts about the others? People have different views of what value is, but nobody could convince me that her price isn't still value despite the cut. The price she was previously was an insult that's all.

I suppose not needing to care about Put The Kettle On now may be clouding how much I see that 10/1 as value.

8/1 on Altior still appeals to me more but I can't tell whether I'd think that with no ante post position....I don't think so, but essentially isn't worth me debating any more

Good post though, certainly all justifiable responses with regards to 2021

[Lobos]

Aye i'd sooner trust Edward Scissorhands to wash my car than trust much of what NH says.

If he breaks down during the racecourse spin you won't need Henderson to say a thing. Good advice to wait until he's had hit. His price won't go in any so nothing to lose. If, on the other hand you haven't backed Kettle yet.............

[Lobos]

Chosen Mates cut is not as bad as first feared . He'll be back out at Xmas time.

[Topofthegame2021]

Over simplifying but I don't think you can go wrong

• Chacun wins
• Altior a great ew bet as a saver

Forget the rest

Please don't tell me he's fragile ; he has been injury free since 2018 ; (Stone Bruises are not 'injuries')

Okay, we will give you that he’s not as fragile as some make out. BUT would the lack of experience around Cheltenham worry you about what is now a 4/1 shot?

[Altior]

Part of me wants to believe Altior has a 170 left in him. I don't think he'll need to reach that to beat anything other than CPS who has to be at his best too.

Someone mentioned Min and surely he gets redirected here if CPS doesn't last the season. He has his Cheltenham win and better to give a go at a weak CC renewal rather than trying to defend a Ryanair. Especially seeing as he has unfinished business with Altior. Ricci would love a CC, he has enough Ryanairs.

I love Fakir and have him for this as Defi is a Ryanair horse or bust imo. I'd fancy him to reverse the Arkle with PTKO. Anyone take a fancy to Notebook, especially with the temptation of no crowd to upset? Pocket talking here but I think the horse was cooked after such a busy season last year and will be managed better this year.

[Run4Home]

Okay, we will give you that he’s not as fragile as some make out. BUT would the lack of experience around Cheltenham worry you about what is now a 4/1 shot?

No, never been one to massively buy into the Chelt course experience as a must. Is it a help? Yes of course but its not everything. If the horse is good enough then they are good enough (Assuming they don't jump right or proven as flat track horses)

Every single year you have winners who have not won / run there before the festival some putting in career high performances.

The same argument could be applied a lot of tracks a horse has not run at on each of there runs? But people don't tend to look at this angle as much unless its Cheltenham I think

I just think he's well above the rest of the field on what we have seen (with my assumption of an aging Altior ; who I also backed as a saver) especially at Punches & Lep (would put a line through first run last year like most of Willies).

Took the 13/2 early doors and if I was forced to go in again I'd rather have a bet on him at 4's than something else. Stick it on what I think wins rather than looking for value angle.

[opatcho]

Every single year you have winners who have not won / run there before the festival some putting in career high performances.

Yeah, but how many of those do this in a Championship Race
How many have done this in the hottest 2 mile chase race of the year in one of the most competitive races
If CPS had chased 9, 10, 11 times over in Ireland over the space of 2 season in some really competitive races, then yeah the risk of him now taking to the race is reduced

However, he's had 5 chases runs. He's inexperienced. The horse has done exceptionally well to date considering his inexperience.

Question is, right this minute.... do you CPS now for this race at the price. For me, I dont think 5/1 for a horse that has struggled to reach the fez is a good bet

[opatcho]

I thought DDG shown a bit of spark over the weekend in the Shloer.
No doubt Nicholls had him prepared for this, and conditions suits (ground, going against horses that may need the run, race falling apart in terms of opponents, going)

He had a wind op which has helped him put in that sort of performance

I wouldnt write off this horse though. The 2 mile divison is weak if you take out Altior and the going favours him more than other over winter

I'll be keen to back him if he tackles a flat track, not sure whether he's breathing was still an issue on Sunday given he was wandering which indicate he was knackard more than anything.
I had a brain fart and asked myself if DDG could win the Tingle Creek with that style of running but I'm not sure whether he's able to finish off his races, particuarly going up again something like Altior who only needs to run up to a 160-162 to win

More interesting is to take from his run is that he could be the pace maker for the QMCC.
I'm keen on Altior (yeah yeah I know folks on her aint that keen - age, wasnt great last year), the one thing I really want to see in the CC was a front runner to make it a right test, allowing Altior to make use of his stamina up that hill

CPS will probably enjoy a good pace, but has to be a negative for me to see a horse thats relevantly inexperienced (number of chases) go to cheltenham for first time in what could be a red hot race. Unless this race properly cut no, can't have him AP

PTKO appears to go well either way, current QM champ will also appreicate a well run CC

I have Altior still the best horse from GB. lol

Been some talks about Min coming her if CPS was injuried. Thats a tough call there, and although I like to see horses come back down in trip to take on the QM, and have experience at the fez and over fences, its going to be difficult to take the regaining Ryanair champ and run him in the QM. Ricci may have another say in the matter, but hard to see atm. I think its more likely they go for GC with Min at this stage or stick to this race

[Lobos]

The last 12 winners of the Champion Chase have had previous course form. Only gone back 12 years.

[Pendil]

I don't think Altior will win a Tingle Creek by producing a 160-162 performance against for example a fresh Politologue

[Run4Home]

Yeah, but how many of those do this in a Championship Race
How many have done this in the hottest 2 mile chase race of the year in one of the most competitive races
If CPS had chased 9, 10, 11 times over in Ireland over the space of 2 season in some really competitive races, then yeah the risk of him now taking to the race is reduced

However, he's had 5 chases runs. He's inexperienced. The horse has done exceptionally well to date considering his inexperience.

Question is, right this minute.... do you CPS now for this race at the price. For me, I dont think 5/1 for a horse that has struggled to reach the fez is a good bet

Inexperience didn't stop him beating Defi or Duc Des Gen (Arkle & JLT winners) on his 2nd chase start over here nor did it stop him winning the hottest 2 mile contest of the last year beating Min who went onto win the Ryanair. So wouldn't really buy into an inexperience angle at all - everyone would have said the same before those races. Come March he also will have another 2 chases into him which is more than enough.

On the competitive races bit - can it get any more competitive then the two races above for most 2m chasers? I haven't checked but I would bet good money he ran to a higher RPR in Lep than anything in the Champion Chase last season.

It will be the weakest of the Championship races IMO come March , similar to this year.

If you had your 10 pounds - where you putting it if not CPS?