Queen Mother Champion Chase 2021

[nortonscoin200]

Fakir D’Oudaries at 20-1 anyone? 2nd to PTKO in Arkle and for a mistake near the end of race could have been another story. The two at front of market both have had their problems, but that said one of them turn up I expect them to win, but I quite fancied fakir in arkle and just wondered peoples thoughts on him going here, especially in light of defi pulling up. Don’t like less than 16-1 for ew bets and 14-1 any race haha. Anyone any thoughts or news?

Just pondering the same question Smiley.

The talk from the stable ever since the Festival is that he will step up in trip - and I backed him accordingly in the belief he was more likely to target the Ryanair or Gold Cup rather than the Champion Chase.

But they must surely be thinking the CC is likely to be much the easiest option of the three.

And if Put The Kettle On looks like being one of the top three contenders you have to say Fakir would clearly be in the mix.

Imagine things may become much clearer after he runs in the John Durkan next month.

But as Istabraq mentioned, JP may be looking for a flag bearer in the CC and Fakir could be his best hope after Defi's travails.

[Faugheen_Machine]

JP did say that the Champion Chase is on his bucket list so the performance of DDS might just prompt a rethink in where FD goes this season. That's what I'm hoping anyway

[Run4Home]

Fakir D’Oudaries at 20-1 anyone? 2nd to PTKO in Arkle and for a mistake near the end of race could have been another story. The two at front of market both have had their problems, but that said one of them turn up I expect them to win, but I quite fancied fakir in arkle and just wondered peoples thoughts on him going here, especially in light of defi pulling up. Don’t like less than 16-1 for ew bets and 14-1 any race haha. Anyone any thoughts or news?

They have mentioned stepping up in trip and the Ryanair a few times so wouldn't think this is the race for him

[Spectre]

Those two rivals have both produced form way above what she has achieved. Altior needs zero explanation for that. Chacun beating Min I feel is far superior to anything she's achieved.



I'd have Min ahead of Put The Kettle On, and Min isn't Willie's best.


The 10/1 now for Put The Kettle On isn't a better bet than Altior at 8/1.





The caveat is I'm on PTKO at much bigger prices, but rather than get carried away with this mediocre form (which is all that it is!) I think 2 pts shorter for ALTIOR is a better bet at this stage.



I'm allowed to re-assess that after he's had a run, but he's about to run at fav for the Tingle Creek (a G1) and if he wins that, would you rather have taken 10/1 now about PTKO, or 8/1 about the previous QMCC winner, that's just picked up a G1?




I like PTKO, honestly I do, but this mantra she's now the one to beat is wide of the mark surely!

Your last sentence, Altior has more to prove than Put The Kettle On?! Altior?! I'm not having that. You would have to have completely dismissed any way at all in which Altior retains ANY ability. He'd have to have regressed so much for that to be true? (Could happen, of course)


Put The Kettle On hasn't reached Politilogue's level yet, let alone Altior's!

I agree, you should have Altior onside at 8/1 ew, but having him as the most likely winner is far from clear cut. He'll win the Tingle Creek and be cut to 4's though, so now's the time to get him onside for the price.

He didn't make it to the Champion Chase last year though, and the previous season he hit what is becoming a regular flat spot when he struggled to pick up Politologhue and Sceau Royal. This season will be fully two years after that though, and don't get me wrong I love Altior and I have done since he was a novice hurdler, but I also recognise when he's vulnerable and I can no longer rely on him to prove his peak perfomances. He is certain to be regressing as an 11 year old in March, and this year he will face a rival that will just gallop and finish up the hill. One that he also has to give 7lbs to. So when he hits his flat spot as he always does now, I'm confident he'll have too much to do to pick her up. He was vulnerable two years ago against Politologue and Sceau Royal so he is significantly more so now, so I just can't have him as a more likely winner than PTKO.

Chacun is a different proposition. He may be capable of a winning performance. But it's equally likely he isn't. And even more likely he doesn't make it to the race at all. It may have been a stone bruise last March, but he missed the previous two as well. He's got legs made of glass. He's had 4 races in 4 years. And it's a guess whether he's even good enough. His beating of Defi doesn't look as good now, he was beaten by A Plus Tard over 2 miles, and he beat Min over 2 miles last February, when Min clearly want further these days. That form doesn't look so good now in hindsight. I'm not saying he can't win, but I definitely question his mark of 171, because his runs don't merit it. None of them were 171 performances, and anyone looking at this race should relook and re-rate them. At best I have him achieving 165 so far, and I could mark him down a shade more. That's not to say he can't better that as he's still unexposed. The truth is though there are too many 'ifs' and 'buts' with him. If you're making a book you need him in it. If your just looking for the winner antepost you'd want your head feeling if you were considering backing him at 4/1.

I'm sure someone will throw Politologue into the mix, but while he's admirably consistent, the race fell into his lap last year, and he's essentially overrated as a 167 horse. Teh 20's available is a bit of an insult, and with horses possibly not making it again it may not be that bad an each way bet, but if any of the three of the others turn up he doesn't win. He'll be 10 himself so he's hardly going to be any better either.

So outside those where do you go next? Rouge Vif? Stuffed by her twice. Fakir? More likely to run in the Ryanair. And if he did turn up here she has his measure anyway. Those that think his mistake cost him are talking with their pocket. It was hardly a bad mistake he made, one that maybe cost half a length, and when he came to her she pulled away again. What else Geaneteen and Chosen Mate. Admirable in their won right, but neither are good enough, but I wouldn't blame connections for taking their chance. Le Richebourg is back from injury, but has plenty to prove and the balance of his novice form looks well short of what's required. And Notebook has a whole host of things to prove before he can be taken seriously, although wierdly he's the one that I think could spring the biggest surprise. the truth is he's more likely to be handicapping than winning an open Festival Grade 1.

With all those factors in play, at worst if she jumps PTKO finishes in the places, but the reality is she may not have to run to any more than 160 with her mares allowance to win the race, and I'm confident she has more than that in her locker at Cheltenham. In terms of value I'm also on her at the bigger prices, but I'd still back her now at 10/1 if she wasn't in my book. She is the most solid of all of them and I'd feel compelled to add any horse at 10/1 that I genuinely feel is the possible winner. With the perfect back up of the place being profitable when the horse surely does that as a minimum.

Looking at all of the markets. How many horses can you name that are trading at 10/1 that you'd be confident of a place at least, with a genuine chance of winning because of the doubts about the others? People have different views of what value is, but nobody could convince me that her price isn't still value despite the cut. The price she was previously was an insult that's all.

[chunker86]

I'll be the one that throws Politologue out there.


Politologue at 20s is a mad price. Festival Figures of 4421 - got to within 2 lengths of Prime Altior in 2019 and hacked up last year - well worth a few points to repeat again, given the well known frailties of Altior and CPS, and though he will be 10 - he's lightly enough raced to give this a good rattle.

[charlie]

Someone on The Racing Forum just said they wouldn't back Altior @ 80/1

Don't worry, I waded into that bullshit accordingly.

[Outlaw]

Someone on The Racing Forum just said they wouldn't back Altior @ 80/1

Don't worry, I waded into that bullshit accordingly.

One of those bitter Min super fans no doubt

[The King Pimm]

This is a very strange market this year. I think I’ve got most of the field covered except Chancun, Politilogue, Sceux Royal and Magic Saint. I can’t think of any other curve balls or dangers. None of the top 10 candidates are that appealing except Altior at 8/1 and Politilogue at 20’s. I’ll definitely be backed Politilogue before he runs next and may hold out to the last minute and lump on with Chancun if he turns up. I don’t think there is a superstar in the field except an ageing Altior. If I was to make a personal prediction I think Paul Nicholls may turn up mob handed and make the race a tactical affair with DDS going off as a pace maker for Politilogue in pursuit with Greanteen and possibly Magic Saint coming up the rear. One of them could distract Altior and finish in a heap with a Nicholls horse winning. It sounds bonkers but I can’t see the QMCC being a big field this festival again and Nicholls could have 4 involved. I don’t think Fakir or PTKO will have the pace to keep up with a front running display from the Nicholls horses unless they try and go with them from the start. DDS very nearly made all yesterday and could repeat that feat along Politilogue in March.

[charlie]

One of those bitter Min super fans no doubt

Haha maybe, or just a complete moron!

[Quevega]

Haha maybe, or just a complete moron!

A proper C**t.
I reckon.

[charlie]

A proper C**t.
I reckon.

Hahahaha yes exactly Q!

[nortonscoin200]

I agree, you should have Altior onside at 8/1 ew, but having him as the most likely winner is far from clear cut. He'll win the Tingle Creek and be cut to 4's though, so now's the time to get him onside for the price.

He didn't make it to the Champion Chase last year though, and the previous season he hit what is becoming a regular flat spot when he struggled to pick up Politologhue and Sceau Royal. This season will be fully two years after that though, and don't get me wrong I love Altior and I have done since he was a novice hurdler, but I also recognise when he's vulnerable and I can no longer rely on him to prove his peak perfomances. He is certain to be regressing as an 11 year old in March, and this year he will face a rival that will just gallop and finish up the hill. One that he also has to give 7lbs to. So when he hits his flat spot as he always does now, I'm confident he'll have too much to do to pick her up. He was vulnerable two years ago against Politologue and Sceau Royal so he is significantly more so now, so I just can't have him as a more likely winner than PTKO.

Chacun is a different proposition. He may be capable of a winning performance. But it's equally likely he isn't. And even more likely he doesn't make it to the race at all. It may have been a stone bruise last March, but he missed the previous two as well. He's got legs made of glass. He's had 4 races in 4 years. And it's a guess whether he's even good enough. His beating of Defi doesn't look as good now, he was beaten by A Plus Tard over 2 miles, and he beat Min over 2 miles last February, when Min clearly want further these days. That form doesn't look so good now in hindsight. I'm not saying he can't win, but I definitely question his mark of 171, because his runs don't merit it. None of them were 171 performances, and anyone looking at this race should relook and re-rate them. At best I have him achieving 165 so far, and I could mark him down a shade more. That's not to say he can't better that as he's still unexposed. The truth is though there are too many 'ifs' and 'buts' with him. If you're making a book you need him in it. If your just looking for the winner antepost you'd want your head feeling if you were considering backing him at 4/1.

I'm sure someone will throw Politologue into the mix, but while he's admirably consistent, the race fell into his lap last year, and he's essentially overrated as a 167 horse. Teh 20's available is a bit of an insult, and with horses possibly not making it again it may not be that bad an each way bet, but if any of the three of the others turn up he doesn't win. He'll be 10 himself so he's hardly going to be any better either.

So outside those where do you go next? Rouge Vif? Stuffed by her twice. Fakir? More likely to run in the Ryanair. And if he did turn up here she has his measure anyway. Those that think his mistake cost him are talking with their pocket. It was hardly a bad mistake he made, one that maybe cost half a length, and when he came to her she pulled away again. What else Geaneteen and Chosen Mate. Admirable in their won right, but neither are good enough, but I wouldn't blame connections for taking their chance. Le Richebourg is back from injury, but has plenty to prove and the balance of his novice form looks well short of what's required. And Notebook has a whole host of things to prove before he can be taken seriously, although wierdly he's the one that I think could spring the biggest surprise. the truth is he's more likely to be handicapping than winning an open Festival Grade 1.

With all those factors in play, at worst if she jumps PTKO finishes in the places, but the reality is she may not have to run to any more than 160 with her mares allowance to win the race, and I'm confident she has more than that in her locker at Cheltenham. In terms of value I'm also on her at the bigger prices, but I'd still back her now at 10/1 if she wasn't in my book. She is the most solid of all of them and I'd feel compelled to add any horse at 10/1 that I genuinely feel is the possible winner. With the perfect back up of the place being profitable when the horse surely does that as a minimum.

Looking at all of the markets. How many horses can you name that are trading at 10/1 that you'd be confident of a place at least, with a genuine chance of winning because of the doubts about the others? People have different views of what value is, but nobody could convince me that her price isn't still value despite the cut. The price she was previously was an insult that's all.

Excellent summing up Spectre - agree with nearly everything you say.

But I do feel you are being rather too dismissive of Fakir.

It would suit my pocket if he went down the Ryanair/Gold Cup route but a one-and-a-half length victory in the Arkle would not be sufficient for me to say PTKO would definitely have Fakir's measure if they meet again next March.

It's easy to forget Fakir is still only 5 and is surely likely to have significant further improvement in him - specially as he's only raced once this year.

I know the argument that he's French and started much earlier (2 of his 6 runs over fences were as a 3-year-old) but 20-1 Fakir is a decent each way bet while at 10-1 you can really only back PTKO to win.

The big if with Fakir is - will he end up in the Champion?

That in itself would stop me taking the 20-1 but I believe it's becoming more likely now because of JP's CC ambitions and Defi's struggles.

But if Fakir turns up here I think he'd have a decent chance.

[Istabraq]

Fakir? More likely to run in the Ryanair. And if he did turn up here she has his measure anyway. Those that think his mistake cost him are talking with their pocket. It was hardly a bad mistake

Have to say I couldn’t disagree more Spectre, but it’s a racing forum and if we all held to same opinions it would be a dull place....

[Spectre]

I have 3 points on Fakir at 25/1 ew for both the Ryanair and the Champion Chase guys, so I don't dismiss him it all. In fact I think he potentially gives her the most to do if they go this route.

You have forced me to just watch the race back again though, and I still don't see how he reverses the form without his mistake, albeit he would have been close. He was beaten a shade more than what he lost at the second last, and it was noticeable she pulled out more when he closed and was going away again at the line. I'd take her to do the same again.

I take the age argument with him only being five, but the reality is they are equally as experienced. In fact Fakir had run one more time that PTKO when they lined up in the Arkle. I'd also argue that she is on more of an upward curve than Fakir.

For all that Fakir is a horse I like a lot. There's probably part of me that wants them to be split up because it suits my bets, but Joseph's comments are the clincher. I'd have to dig them out but he said he thinks Fakir wants further now, which on breeding alone is logical. I also watched his run back in The Drinmore at Fairyhouse last December, and he wasn't stopping over two and a half. If anything, despite going close in the Arkle, it may have been his best run of the season,. Albeit he came home alone when Samcro fell. But they'd both pulled a long way clear of good 150's horses, and he ended up 25-30 lengths of Ronald Pump and Burrows Saint who were still racing, and he had been heavily eased for the last furlong.

Could I discount Fakir sticking at 2 miles? No. But it it were a match bet between the two I'd still pick the mare. My pocked would be fine either way though with one at 20/1 ew and the other at 25/1 ew! On the other hand in a bet between Fakir, Min, and Samcro, I might pick Fakir. Now that statement will get a response!

[Lobos]

I suggest anyone thinking of backing Altior for the Tingle Creek or the Champion Chase or both, wait until he's had his racecourse spin at Newbury this week first. Henderson has pulled him from other races based on how he goes in these little exercises. Apparently it's going to be beamed live on the Racing channel so you can judge for yourselves. I'd say don't back him at all until Henderson has had his say after the event re Altiors well being.