Queen Mother Champion Chase 2021

[Hurricane fly]

The crowd capacity will be an interesting one with Notebook. I’d certainly fancy him a lot more if we are at 50% capacity

[Cheltenham Novice Chase]

Two questions...

1. What race is he aiming for in Limerick?

2. Surely Blackmore will want to ride PTKO? Or will they stick with Coleman there?

Couldnt be having notebook myself in Cheltenham. Two shocking runs there, and I find continually making excuses for poor runs is a quick route to the poor house

1) In De Bromhead’s stable tour he suggests all going well Notebook will be targeted at the Grade 1 at Leopardstown (sorry not Limerick) on Boxing Day.

2) I don’t know but I would have thought it more likely jockey bookings would remain as-is.

[jono]

Another worry i'd have with Altior this year and why i'm happy to chance elsewhere in the market come March is that his run style in the most part hasn't really consisted of getting horses out of their comfort zone. Of course that hasn't mattered, he's either ground them down or laughed at them once passing the last but it gives an opportunity and brings lesser horses into the race.

Aside from CPS - there's a huge gap in ratings between Altior and the rest, so on paper he should still be way ahead. But for much of the race, the rest of the field will be able to run their race, and probably for a large part look his equal. It's then a case of them being able to sustain it and whether Altior can pick them off. To be honest i'm not convinced on either but as each race comes and goes at his age, the chances of Altior not being able to pick up at the end of the race increases.

[Saxon Warrior]

Research into 11 years of the Champion Chase 1st three completed.

5 "God" years includes 5 years where horses of great standing going into the year, made it to the Fez and were odds on.

6 Normal years where there wasn't such a horse dominating the market.

In Bold - horses who started the season (or the Champion Chase) rated 160 or below.

2020 - Normal
1st Politologue (9yo) - commenced season OR 166 (17 chase runs), CC raceday OR 165 (19 chase runs)
2nd Dynamite Dollars (7yo) - commenced season OR 157 (5 chase runs), CC raceday OR 160 (6 chase runs)
3rd Bun Doran (9yo) - commenced season OR 150 (13 chase runs), CC raceday OR 160 (16 chase runs)



2019 - God (Altior 4/11 SP fav)
1st Altior (9yo) - commenced season OR 175 (9 chase runs), CC raceday OR 175 (12 chase runs)
2nd Politologue (8yo) - commenced season OR 168 (12 chase runs), CC raceday OR 166 (15 chase runs)
3rd Sceau Royal (7yo) - commenced season OR 159 (5 chase runs), CC raceday OR 159 (7 chase runs)


2018 - God (Altior 4/6 SP fav)
1st Altior (8yo) - commenced season OR 170 (6 chase runs), CC raceday OR 170 (7 chase runs)
2nd Min (7yo) - commenced season OR 160 (2 chase runs), CC raceday OR 167 (5 chase runs)
3rd Gods Own (10yo) - commenced season OR 166 (21 chase runs), CC raceday OR 158 (23 chase runs)


2017 - Normal
1st Special Tiara (10yo) - commenced season OR 168 (17 chase runs), CC raceday OR 159 (22 chase runs)
2nd Fox Norton (7yo) - commenced season OR 146 (8 chase runs), CC raceday OR 161 (11 chase runs)
3rd Sir Valentino (8yo) - commenced season OR 147 (16 chase runs), CC raceday OR 158 (19 chase runs)


2016 - God (Un De Sceaux 4/6 SP fav, plus reinvigorated Sprinter S SP 11/4)
1st Sprinter Sacre (10yo) - commenced season OR 167 (14 chase runs), CC raceday OR 170 (16 chase runs)
2nd Un De Sceaux (8yo) - commenced season OR 168 (5 chase runs), CC raceday OR 172 (7 chase runs)
3rd Special Tiara (9yo) - commenced season OR 168 (15 chase runs), CC raceday OR 168 (17 chase runs)

2015 - Normal
1st Dodging Bullets (7yo) - commenced season OR 155 (6 chase runs), CC raceday OR 171 (9 chase runs)
2nd Somersby (11yo) - commenced season OR 164 (24 chase runs), CC raceday OR 161 (28 chase runs)
3rd Special Tiara (8yo) - commenced season OR 153 (11 chase runs), CC raceday OR 160 (13 chase runs)


2014 - Normal
1st Sire De Grugy (8yo) - commenced season OR 161(6 chase runs), CC raceday OR 169 (11 chase runs)
2nd Somersby (10yo) - commenced season OR 155 (19 chase runs), CC raceday OR 164 (22 chase runs)
3rd Module (7yo) - commenced season OR 152 (4 chase runs), CC raceday OR 157 (7 chase runs)


2013 - God (Sprinter Sacre SP 1/4 fav)
1st Sprinter Sacre (7yo) - commenced season OR 169 (5 chase runs), CC raceday OR 179 (7 chase runs)
2nd Sizing Europe (11yo) - commenced season OR 171 (17 chase runs), CC raceday OR 172 (21 chase runs)
3rd Wishful Thinking (10yo) - commenced season OR 164 (14 chase runs), CC raceday OR 162 (18 chase runs)


2012 - Normal
1st Finians Rainbow (9yo) - commenced season OR 157 (5 chase runs), CC raceday OR 179 (7 chase runs)
2nd Sizing Europe (10yo) - commenced season OR 177 (11 chase runs), CC raceday OR 177 (15 chase runs)
3rd Big Zeb (11yo) - commenced season OR 176 (19 chase runs), CC raceday OR 169 (22 chase runs)


2011 - Normal
1st Sizing Europe (9yo) - commenced season OR 160 (6 chase runs), CC raceday OR 160 (9 chase runs)
2nd Big Zeb (10yo) - commenced season OR 174 (14 chase runs), CC raceday OR 174 (17 chase runs)
3rd Captain Cee Bee (10yo) - commenced season OR 158 (5 chase runs), CC raceday OR 158 (7 chase runs)


2010 - God (Master Minded 4/5 SP fav)
1st Big Zeb (9yo) - commenced season OR 162 (6 chase runs), CC raceday OR 169 (9 chase runs)
2nd Forpadydeplasterer (8yo) - commenced season OR 156 (6 chase runs), CC raceday OR 158 (8 chase runs)
3rd Kalahari King (9yo) - commenced season OR 157 (7 chase runs), CC raceday OR 166 (8 chase runs)


Calculations
In the last 11 years, 15 (of 33) of the horses placed in the Champion Chase began the season officially rated 160 or less.

3 Won aged 7, 9, 9 (rated 155, 157 & 160) - all three had prior chase form at Cheltenham
5 2nds aged 7, 7, 7, 8, 10
7 3rds aged 7, 7, 8, 8, 9, 9, 10

13 of these were aged 7yo to 9yo, at the time of the Champion Chase (6yrs to 8yrs at the seasons start).

----------------------------------------------

In the last 11 years, 10 (of 33) of the horses placed in the Champion Chase began the RACE officially rated 160 or less.

2 Won aged 9, 10 (rated 159 & 160)
2 2nds aged 7, 8
7 3rds aged 7, 8, 8, 9, 9, 10, 10

8 of these were aged 7yo to 9yo.

SUMMARY
It was interesting to see that nearly half the horses placed in the recent Champion Chases started the year rated 160 or less.
Much of this would relate to novices going into open graded chases, and further evidenced by 13 (of the 15) were 7-9yo.

Also interesting is that a 3rd of all placed horses over 11 years, started the race officially rated 160 or less.

Only in 2 years did any horse not rated 160 or less feature in the places, theses were both races that Sprinter Sacre won, with an odds-on favourite coming out of novice season (Sprinter and UDS).

Given this data, I see every reason to go winkling around at bigger prices for horses with current official ratings of 155-160, as they get placed almost as often (45.5%) as those that are rated above 160 (54.5%).

There must be some interesting ones out there at decent prices.

Ploughing through the Oddschecker market for the Champion Chase the following horses currently fit the profile.

Put The Kettle On (OR 155) plus 7lb mares allowance. 20/1
Fakir D'Oudairies (OR 160) 25/1
Melon (OR 158) 25/1
Notebook (OR 158) 33/1
Chosen Mate (OR 158) 40/1
Cash Back (OR 156) 40/1
Global Citizen (OR 156) 66/1

Post from July repeated, on the start of season ratings (in the last 10 seasons) of all Champion Chase placed horses and winners.

It showed that PTKO with a 7lb allowance starts the season as a better horse, already, than 15 of the 30 placed horses in the last 10 Arkles, (incl, 3 winners, 5 runners-up, and 7 3rd placed finishers).

[nortonscoin200]

Some interesting views have been expressed on whether it's wise to ignore the chance of Put The Kettle On in next year's Champion Chase.

Here's a quick look at what happened to Arkle winners of the past decade at the following season's Festival.

It makes for quite interesting reading.

Five competed in the Champion Chase: three won, 1 was second and the other trailed in 7th at 4-9 favourite - but was found to be lame after the race.

Three competed in the Ryanair and none of them made the frame. They finished 4th, 8th and 5th.

Two were non runners at the following Festival.

So in answer to the question "is it madness to ignore PTKO at 20-1 for the CC" the answer surely has to be: YES!!!

Here's the full breakdown with the year denoting their Arkle victory.

2010: Sizing Europe - WON Champion Chase.

2011: Captain Chris - 4th in the Ryanair.

2012: Sprinter Sacre - WON Champion Chase

2013: Simonsig. - non runner.

2014: Western Warhorse - non runner.

2015: Un de Sceaux - 2nd in Champion Chase.

2016: Douvan - 7th in Champion Chse at 2-9fav. Vet found him lame after race.

2017: Altior - WON Champion Chase.

2018: Footpad: 8th in Ryanair.

2019: Duc des Genievres - 5th in the Ryanair.

In the words of Oasis, some might say PTKO is not in the same league as Sizing Europe, Sprinter Sacre, Altior or even Un de Sceaux - so this bit of research means nothing!

So I've gone back another 11 years (no Festival in 2001) to see if the stats over the last decade stack up further back.

IMO it again makes an interesting read.

Six Arkle winners competed in the following year's Champion Chase: 3 won, 2 came second and 1 came third.

Two were non runners at the following Festival.

One was 4th in the Ryanair.

One was 5th in the World Hurdle.



So the facts regarding the fate of the last 20 Arkle winners at the following Festival are:

11 competed in the Champion Chase

6 won

3 came 2nd

1 came 3rd

1 was unplaced

In anybody's book that is a pretty amazing strike rate for Arkle winners lining up in the Champion Chase.


Of the other 9 Arkle winners:

4 competed in the Ryanair and failed to make the frame.

4 were non runners at the following Festival.

1 was unplaced in the World Hurdle.

Surely the only conclusion you can draw from Cheltenham Festival history over the last 20 years is that -win or lose - right now Put The Kettle On really is a good value each way bet.



Here is the full Arkle breakdown of the decade starting in 1999 (NB:Flagship Uberalles went on to win the Champion Chase in 2002):

1999 Flagship Uberalles - 3rd in the Champion Chase

2000 Tuitchev -non runner

2001 -No race

2002:MoscowFlyer - WON Champion Chase

2003: Azertyulop - WON Champion Chase

2004:Well Chief -2nd in Champion Chase

2005: Contraband - non runner.

2006: Voy Por Ustedes - WON Champion Chase.

2007: My Way de Solzen - 5th in World Hurdle.

2008: Tidal Bay: 4th in Ryanair.

2009: Padydeplasterer - 2nd in Champion Chase.

[Lobos]

The Arkle winner to Champion Chase winner is without any question the number 1 stat of all stats. Can't be beaten (the stat that is) and certainly can't be ignored.

[Hardy Eustace]

Strong work NC200, definitely food for thought.

[Istabraq]

Thanks NC, a neater version of what I wrote in May....

http://www.fatjockey.com/forum/showthread.php?15737-2021-Champion-Chase-have-bookies-got-this-wrong

[Lobos]

Thanks NC, a neater version of what I wrote in May....

http://www.fatjockey.com/forum/showt...got-this-wrong

Noticed you have left Chosen Mate out of your list. Interesting that according to Saxon's post, he's currently officially rated higher than a few on that list. I think he could surprise this season as well.

[opatcho]

2010: Sizing Europe - WON Champion Chase.

2011: Captain Chris - 4th in the Ryanair.

2012: Sprinter Sacre - WON Champion Chase

2013: Simonsig. - non runner.

2014: Western Warhorse - non runner.

2015: Un de Sceaux - 2nd in Champion Chase.

2016: Douvan - 7th in Champion Chse at 2-9fav. Vet found him lame after race.

2017: Altior - WON Champion Chase.

2018: Footpad: 8th in Ryanair.

2019: Duc des Genievres - 5th in the Ryanair.

Hey.... great effort as usual to drag this out, and this is one of the reasons I come to this site as folks like yourself will happily pull out stats and figures which in turn help who are keen on backing a selection whilst providing another view point for those who are currently on the lay/not for me side

I normally follow trends such as the one you have presented, however I am preferring to go with another trend that I've noticed for the QMCC recently

For me, the trend that I'm siding with is this: older and more experienced horses are winning the QMCC, the exception being a superstar emerging from the previous years' Arkle.

I've based this on...

2020 - Politologue. 9 years old. Been festival 4 times time before this win. Was most experience horse out of this reduced field

2019 - Altior. 9 years old. Been festival 3 times before this win renewal
Politologue was second. Again, experienced at this point

2018 - Altior. 8 years old, now this is were my 'Superstar Arkle' winner comes into play

2017 - Special Tiara. 10 years old. Been festival 3 times before this win

2016 - Sprinter Sacre. 10 years old. Been festival twice before this. Obviously the injury he had caused him to miss one and not perform into another

2015 - Dodging Bullets does buck this trend to a degree. However, I think most of us believe Sprinter Sacre would have won this renewal if he didnt have his heart condition. Note Somersby was a close second, 11 years old, plenty of festival experience

2014 - Sire De Grugy. 8 years old. Again, I truly believe sprinter would have won this one.
Note Somersby was second, 10 years old, plenty of festival experience

2013 - Sprinter Sacre. 7 years old. Superstar Arkle winner.

2012 / 2011 - Finian's Rainbow and Sizing Europe. 9 years old


It kind of makes sense right that older horses, which implies and in most instance is the case, that the horse has had plenty of experience of travelling and jumping at speed over difficult obstacles. The Queen Mother is my favourite race, its the fastest and most challenging race of the week in my eyes. As a result, you need something that can handle these conditions and for me that currently means

1) experience at top level is key, running against proper G1 horses over this distance and proven you can handle this

or

2) a complete superstar of a horse, of which there has only been two of recently years that have come up from the Arkle to win this - Sprinter Sacre and Altior

That's why I'm all over Altior. I truly believe nothing will travel up that hill quicker than Altior which means you need to have him beaten 4-5 out - and I cant see anything in this years line up that can do that.

I imagine what Altior would have done to Fakir over 2 miles. Does anyone believe that Fakir would beat Altior over 2 miles in a championship race?!

... I dont see PTKO as superstar at this stage. If she comes out, wins and proven he's improved by 7-12 lbs then so be it. However, I just dont see it and happy to be proven wrong that she can improve that much from last year.

Rather take 8/1 on Altior over the 20/1's of PTKO... and I've already taken plenty on the 8/1's, and I'm not prepared to reduce my stake on Altior so that I can have a cover bet and I plan to go into the fez with only one selection in this particular race

If Altior turns out to be a dog this season, and PTKO turns out to be a superstar, I will reassess. However, this is where I am now

I'm not ignoring her, just prefer another selection

[Istabraq]

Noticed you have left Chosen Mate out of your list. Interesting that according to Saxon's post, he's currently officially rated higher than a few on that list. I think he could surprise this season as well.

That was written on 1 May I think Lobos, at that stage I had him down as a handicapper whose abilities had been hidden all season with the G Annual in mind, I still think he’ll need to step up massively to figure even in a bad Queen Mother.
But as we keep saying, it’s October, twelve months ago this race looked the best race of the week and we all know how that turned out...

[nortonscoin200]

Thanks NC, a neater version of what I wrote in May....

http://www.fatjockey.com/forum/showt...got-this-wrong

Sorry Ista - didn't realise you'd already done the same research months ago(honest).

And we're both paddling the same canoe with PTKO and Fakir (though I've backed him for the Ryanair and GC).

[Istabraq]

Sorry Ista - didn't realise you'd already done the same research months ago(honest).

And we're both paddling the same canoe with PTKO and Fakir (though I've backed him for the Ryanair and GC).

Not at all NC, plenty of older posts/threads get lost over time, I’m pleased you re-raised the numbers, and a hell of alot better presented than me !

[Lobos]

That was written on 1 May I think Lobos, at that stage I had him down as a handicapper whose abilities had been hidden all season with the G Annual in mind, I still think he’ll need to step up massively to figure even in a bad Queen Mother.
But as we keep saying, it’s October, twelve months ago this race looked the best race of the week and we all know how that turned out...

Too right. Absolutely anything can happen. Let's just enjoy the ride as best we can !

[Istabraq]

Something worth considering, even though I’ve mentally written off all my Queen Mother interests on Fakir Doudaries, JPs Current arsenal is Le Richebourg and Defi Du Seuil who you could argue are his possible runners for this race, LR is as fragile as they come and Defi (for me) will only be seen at his best over further, but should anything happen to these Fakir could easily find himself back in the Queen Mother discussion.
JOB will have his view obviously but JP will not be left without a dart for this race...